"The key issue of our time is whether the U.S. and China can develop a mode of coexistence that is neither war nor traditional hegemony." In 2018, the forward-looking Kissinger said so. The strategic competition between the U.S. and China has undoubtedly become the core of today's geopolitics. Both countries are striving to consolidate their influence, safeguard national interests, and limit each other's power in the complex global landscape. Ironically, although some supporters argue that this confrontation signifies a new Cold War, an increasing number of views suggest we are facing a "new multipolar order." This seemingly contradictory phenomenon precisely reveals the true nature of the world today.

The Shift in U.S. Policy Tone

Despite the prevalent discourse about America's decline, it remains the superpower of the post-Cold War world. The United States holds an unquestioned technological leadership, leading the wave of the artificial intelligence revolution that will redefine the global balance of power in the coming decades. However, the world is no longer unipolar. Over the past few decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth, challenging American hegemony. The term "multipolarity" has emerged to refer to this new world order.

In fact, Trump's second term broke the U.S. policy tone that had lasted for 20 years—implementing a containment policy toward China by cultivating alliances in Europe and Asia, while dealing with threats such as Russia and Iran. The core circle of Trump (not the Pentagon) advocated that the U.S. should adhere to a "realpolitik" stance, consolidating its international position. To this end, the circle believes that the U.S. must abandon its role as a guardian of the international order, considering other Western countries not as true allies but as independent actors who "appropriate" the global public goods provided by Washington.

Under this new context, terms like "asymmetric multipolarity" have emerged. Political scientist Wang from the University of Virginia proposed this idea: "The U.S. and China are not in a period of power transition between hegemonies, but rather in the core nodes of a multi-tiered, interrelated global network, where neither side can control the entire system." Nevertheless, regardless of the label we use—emerging bipolar or asymmetric multipolar—it is undeniable that the main driving force of current geopolitics is the power competition between the U.S. and China. This competition across multiple fields such as economy, technology, military, and diplomacy is becoming a driving force in reshaping the new international order.

China Can Resist the Impact

The U.S.-China trade conflict is not only about tariff disputes but also reflects deep structural imbalances and differences in economic models, which have coexisted over decades. Unlike the Cold War era, the two great powers now maintain a closely intertwined economic interdependence. Although this can lead to conflicts, it also provides strong incentives for cooperation.

Washington claims that the U.S.-China trade deficit stems from excessive government financial support for Chinese companies and "artificially undervalued" RMB, but this view ignores the significant U.S. surplus in service trade. Moreover, Trump's personal preference for tariffs ultimately led to a fierce trade war in 2025. However, as shown by the recent "trade truce," Beijing has various tools to successfully deal with long-term trade conflicts.

The main tool for China to resist the impact lies in its position in the global supply chain, as well as its "huge competitive advantage" in labor, logistics costs, and especially production scale.

The case of Apple vividly illustrates the difficulties the U.S. faces in achieving real industrialization and effective decoupling, indicating that imposing tariffs on China is not a "simple" way to achieve U.S. industrial revitalization. Tariffs could cause some production to shift to other Asian countries. However, data from April 2025 highlights China's adaptability: despite a sharp decline in exports to the U.S., China's overall export growth exceeded expectations, mainly due to increased exports to ASEAN, which are likely acting as intermediaries. This highlights the complexity of isolating China without harming the interests of the region's allies. China has a clear advantage in enduring the costs of the trade war over the long term.

Technological Competition Attracts Attention

Although trade is the most visible battlefield, technology is undoubtedly a key area in determining global dominance. Technological confrontation is a battle for the future, centered around controlling technologies such as microelectronics, artificial intelligence, and cyber capabilities. For both major powers, artificial intelligence and defense cybersecurity are "core areas of national and military strategy," making them critical battlegrounds for determining the outcome of the competition.

Currently, the U.S. leads globally in cyber capabilities through strict regulation of critical infrastructure (energy, transportation, healthcare) and active collaboration between government agencies and the private sector. The Pentagon is working to integrate AI models for real-time threat detection and automated response. With a mature intelligence system and coordination mechanisms with allies, the U.S. still maintains its status as a "top-tier" power.

On the other hand, China is developing rapidly, and the U.S. intelligence community sees it as a major threat. However, the U.S. attempt to curb China's technological advancement has instead strengthened Beijing's determination to double down on efforts in this field, especially in cyber warfare and artificial intelligence. Ironical as it may be, this containment policy might actually inspire Chinese companies' technological innovation and self-reliance. The case of DeepSeek shows that the barriers set by the U.S. are actually pushing Chinese companies to enhance their technological capabilities.

The U.S.-China confrontation is not a fleeting phenomenon but a defining factor of the 21st century. An in-depth analysis of its trade and technological fronts reveals a world situation where economic interdependence (the most fundamental difference from the Cold War era) and zero-sum strategic competition for technological hegemony coexist.

In the trade domain, China, leveraging its dominant position in the global supply chain and control over key raw materials, has effectively offset the impact of U.S. tariffs with a firm stance against Trump's aggressive negotiation style. In the technological domain, the U.S. chooses to block cutting-edge technologies to contain China's development and uses this as a bargaining chip, which ironically catalyzes Beijing's self-sufficiency in technology, particularly in key areas such as artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, where China is rapidly closing the gap. (Translated by Liu Lifu)

This article was published on the website of Spain's Foreign Policy magazine on December 8, with the original title "The Century Confrontation." The author is Rafael Loring, a senior economist at the European Advisory Affairs Committee.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7583514832746316298/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.