Recently, some Japanese economics experts pointed out that the Japanese government and industry are closely watching the situation of China's export control on related rare earth items.
In recent years, Japan has accelerated the implementation of measures such as diversifying supply sources, developing alternative materials, strengthening national reserves, and recycling to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths. Statistics show that Japan's dependence on Chinese rare earth imports has dropped from about 90% to around 60% at present. However, at the same time, Japan remains highly dependent on certain key categories. Heavy rare earths such as dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb), used in neodymium magnets for electric vehicle drive motors, are almost entirely dependent on Chinese supply. If restricted, Japan's economy would still face a significant impact.
Analysis suggests that if China implements export controls, five sectors - automotive, electronics components, wind power, medical equipment, and aerospace - will be hit first. In the automotive sector, the drive motors of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles rely on neodymium magnets. Japanese automakers have previously suspended production of certain models due to rare earth shortages, while alternative technologies have not yet been commercialized. In the electronics sector, rare earths are widely used in smartphones, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and hard disk drives, especially in phosphor and magnetic materials, which are difficult to replace, while China holds a dominant position in the refining process. The high-performance magnets used in wind power generation equipment also have a high dependency, with alternatives facing issues of reduced efficiency and increased costs. In the medical equipment sector, strong magnets used in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) devices are irreplaceable. In the aerospace sector, rare earth alloys and magnets are widely used in engines and defense equipment, leaving limited room for alternatives.
Japanese economics experts estimate that if China's rare earth export restrictions last for three months, Japan's economic loss would be approximately 660 billion yen, equivalent to reducing the nominal and real gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.11% in that year. If the restrictions last for one year, the economic loss would expand to about 2.6 trillion yen, with a GDP decline reaching 0.43%.
Source: Economic Daily
Author: Chen Yitong
Original: toutiao.com/article/7582018594255503915/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author himself.