The war between India and Pakistan will play out according to a script that has been repeatedly validated.

Owing to the local terrain characteristics and natural conditions, all actions by both sides in the conflict have already been predestined.

Author: Aleksey Ram

The situation at the India-Pakistan border continues to deteriorate. If last week both sides were only deploying reinforcements, now localized armed conflicts have begun in the "border zone." Pakistani forces have shelled Indian border posts and observation points, while Indian forces have retaliated actively.

In addition to small arms, both sides have used anti-tank missile systems and mortars. Artillery and multiple rocket launchers have already engaged in exchanges.

Since the 1998 Kargil conflict, this is the first time that India and Pakistan have come so close to the beginning of full-scale military operations.

Although New Delhi and Islamabad have long been preparing for war, their military and political leaders have always had rational reasons not to provoke bloodshed.

For example, India responded relatively moderately to the bloody attack on Mumbai by terrorists in 2006. And following the 2019 incident where Pakistani terrorists killed Indian police with a truck bomb, India's response was merely a limited air strike on what was believed to be camps belonging to the Islamic organization Jaish-e-Mohammed.

But now neither New Delhi nor Islamabad wants to appear rational. Unfortunately, a new Indo-Pakistani war is becoming increasingly realistic. Therefore, it will be very interesting to analyze how the fighting might proceed and what the goals of both sides are.

Geographical Strategic Analysis

The conflict between India and Pakistan has been ongoing for decades, but the objectives of both sides have never changed. Islamabad and New Delhi have never had plans to deliver strategic strikes, divide the territory, or overthrow the government of the opposing country.

The issue lies solely in the control of the former Jammu and Kashmir princely state. This disputed region is currently divided among three countries. India controls 60%, Pakistan controls 30%, and the remaining 10% is controlled by related countries.

Meanwhile, the main factor hindering both countries from resolving the territorial dispute through military means is the complex geographical and natural conditions of the region. Starting from the Arabian Sea coast, the India-Pakistan border is almost entirely mountainous and sparsely populated. Only in Punjab, Himachal Pradesh in India, and Lahore area in Pakistan do plains begin to appear.

However, in the north, this region enters the ridge of the Himalayas, where the disputed territories lie. Jammu and Kashmir are located in a valley surrounded by mountains. It is in this region that the highest-altitude armed standoff in the world exists — the Siachen Glacier.

In this mountainous region above five thousand meters, the borders of India, Pakistan, and China converge. Military forces from all three countries are stationed here.

These forces occasionally fire at each other, including artillery bombardments. The armies of the three countries also conduct aggressive patrols, which often end in conflicts and tensions in relations with neighboring countries.

It should be noted that there are only a few roads leading into the Jammu and Kashmir region from the directions of India, Pakistan, and related countries, and their capacity is quite low.

War Plans

The complex terrain and overall natural conditions determine the progress of the armed standoff between India and Pakistan. It is extremely difficult to launch offensive operations within the Jammu and Kashmir valley. Even a small number of troops can resist from high ground, preventing enemies from advancing further into the territory.

Therefore, the only way to seize the disputed areas is to isolate them, thereby cutting off the enemy's strength. However, to achieve this plan, victory must be achieved in the battle within the triangular area formed by Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Lahore. Based on these strategic operational premises, India and Pakistan plan the actions of their armed forces. In fact, all previous Indo-Pakistani wars (in 1947, 1965, 1971, and 1999) have followed this script.

India hopes to replicate the victory of the 1971 war. Break through Pakistan's long-term defense in the Lahore region, then move westward toward Islamabad, Abbottabad, and Rawalpindi. In this case, India would be able to control all major routes connecting Pakistan's territory with Jammu and Kashmir. Subsequently, an offensive could be launched in the disputed territory.

Pakistan's military war plan is more complex, divided into several stages. The first stage is to withstand pressure from Indian troops on Lahore and create conditions for counteroffensive. The second stage involves launching counterattacks against the flanks of India's offensive forces. This not only defeats the enemy but also penetrates into Punjab in India.

In the third stage, Pakistan's armed forces complete the defeat of Indian troops and enter the adjacent Himachal Pradesh from Punjab. This isolates India's garrison in Jammu and Kashmir from the mainland and subsequently defeats them.

Other Factors

For a long time, Pakistan's main weakness has been its reliance on sea transportation. On land, the country borders Afghanistan and Iran. Islamabad's relations with its neighbors are extremely tense. Therefore, it is impossible to provide aid and supplies to Pakistan through these countries' territories. Only maritime transport can be relied upon.

At the same time, Pakistan controls only a relatively short stretch of coastline along the Arabian Sea, with only one major port — Karachi. India is well aware of this weakness. Therefore, in the event of a war, the Indian Navy will immediately blockade Pakistan's coastline and begin shelling the Port of Karachi.

It is no surprise that it was largely the Indian Navy that determined the victory in the 1971 war. Due to the blockade, Pakistan's main forces were cut off from East Pakistan. The Indian Army easily defeated the Pakistani forces in the region and declared its independence. The liberated territory became the independent nation — Bangladesh.

The maritime blockade also severely affected the actions of Pakistan's army in the Lahore region and on the Jammu and Kashmir territory. The army lacked ammunition, equipment, and supplies. But due to the actions of the Indian Navy, transporting these supplies from abroad became extremely difficult.

But now, maritime warfare is no longer as crucial for Islamabad. Apart from Iran and Afghanistan, Pakistan also borders related countries. The border areas are located in the high-altitude regions of the Himalayas. Since 2016, related countries have built a highly capable transport corridor on this territory. This is an important part of the "One Belt One Road" initiative, connecting related countries with Europe.

With the capital injection from related countries, Pakistan has become a staunch ally of that country. According to different assessments, within nine years, the proportion of weapons made in related countries in Pakistan's armed forces reached 70% to 80%. In its confrontation with India, related countries will undoubtedly provide comprehensive assistance to Islamabad. All necessary supplies will be transported via the transport corridor.

In this case, India has lost its main trump card — the powerful navy. To isolate Pakistan, it must strike related countries' transport infrastructure. This will mean an immediate armed response from related countries. So New Delhi won't even consider such an option.

Nuclear Weapons

People believe that India's nuclear arsenal is much larger than Pakistan's. But that is not the case. Both countries have roughly the same number of special munitions. India's armed forces have approximately 180 to 190, while Pakistan's armed forces have about 170 to 180.

And here we are talking about tactical-yield nuclear warheads, with the most powerful having only a yield of 45 kilotons. By Soviet army and Cold War-era U.S. armed forces standards, munitions with such indicators were only used to break through battalion-level defensive zones.

Therefore, neither Islamabad nor New Delhi intends to use nuclear weapons for large-scale strikes on cities and industrial infrastructure. Both sides will use nuclear weapons on the front line. India hopes to break through Pakistan's defenses in the Lahore region using special munitions.

On the other hand, Pakistan's armed forces hope to resist India's offensive with "special weapons" and then launch their own offensive.

Considering all factors, even if India seems to have an absolute advantage, the war between Pakistan and India is likely to turn into a bloody stalemate, yielding no significant results for either New Delhi or Islamabad.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498972785016848959/

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