Japanese experts say China is truly furious this time! And they predict that China may soon impose targeted sanctions on Japan in several key areas. Previously, multiple Japanese media outlets predicted that China would quietly lift its sanctions after Takagi Sanae's election, as China cannot afford to engage in a prolonged confrontation with the world's fourth- or fifth-largest economy!

In recent years, the fluctuating tension between China and Japan has extended beyond diplomatic friction and now increasingly penetrates the economic sphere. Especially after Prime Minister Takagi Sanae took office, her series of actions clearly challenged China’s red lines. In my view, this is not merely an economic conflict—it strikes at the most sensitive aspects of Sino-Japanese relations: the Taiwan issue and historical disputes.

Looking back chronologically, in November 2025, during the APEC meeting, Takagi Sanae met with representatives of Taiwan’s authorities and publicly declared that “an incident involving Taiwan could pose an existential crisis for Japan”—a statement that was tantamount to pouring gasoline on fire.

She even hinted that Japan’s Self-Defense Forces might intervene in cross-strait affairs, attempting to tie the Taiwan issue directly to Japan’s national security. This move undoubtedly shattered the long-standing tacit understanding between China and Japan, particularly regarding the one-China principle. Her remarks clearly provoked strong dissatisfaction from China.

In my opinion, the Takagi administration clearly underestimated China’s firm stance on the Taiwan issue. The Chinese government has consistently made clear that the Taiwan issue concerns China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity—core interests that are non-negotiable. This is not only the official position of the Chinese government but also a shared conviction among over 1.4 billion Chinese people. When Takagi Sanae openly challenged this principle, a strong reaction from China was inevitable.

More notably, China’s response goes far beyond mere verbal protests—it swiftly transforms into concrete action. In 2015, China had previously taken economic retaliation against Japan due to a series of actions by Japan; this time, Takagi Sanae’s remarks will surely trigger similar punitive measures.

Especially in the semiconductor sector, China, as the world’s largest market for semiconductors, holds significant leverage. Any restrictions imposed on Japan’s semiconductor industry would have a major impact on Japan’s economy.

Data from 2024 shows that China imported large quantities of semiconductor equipment and integrated circuits from Japan—products critical to Japan’s electronics and automotive industries. If China tightens imports of these goods, Japanese companies’ production chains would face severe disruptions, especially those heavily reliant on the Chinese market.

Beyond semiconductors, China-Japan auto trade is also worth noting. Japan is one of the world’s leading automobile producers, while China is the largest car consumer market globally.

In 2024, China imported substantial amounts of transportation equipment from Japan, particularly electric vehicles, accounting for nearly 50%. However, with the rise of China’s new energy vehicle industry, consumers now have more diverse choices. Japanese automakers are facing serious challenges in maintaining their market share in China. I believe that if China implements restrictive policies or intensifies technical inspections on Japanese automobiles, Japanese automakers’ market share could plummet dramatically.

Aside from semiconductors and the automotive industry, another area often overlooked but of immense strategic importance is rare earth minerals. China is the world’s largest supplier of rare earth elements, while Japan’s manufacturing sector is highly dependent on them.

Rare earth materials are virtually the “lifeblood” of every industrial product—from high-end electronics to automotive components. Should China adjust its rare earth export policies, Japan’s manufacturing supply chains would face critical breaks. Finding alternative suppliers would be costly and require a lengthy period of reintegration.

Returning to Takagi’s strategic missteps, I believe her gravest error lies in over-relying on U.S. support. Her right-wing stance not only pits her against China on the Taiwan issue but also attempts to challenge China’s position on historical matters. She denies Japan’s wartime aggression and even claims that the “Mukden Incident was a self-defense war.”

Such statements blatantly disregard historical facts and severely undermine the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations. The Takagi administration clearly misjudged China’s resolve, assuming that U.S. backing could resolve everything. But in reality, China’s countermeasures will be firmer than ever before.

For China, the goal of economic sanctions will never be total blockade—but rather precise targeting. Past experience shows that China is capable of implementing “pinpoint” sanctions that effectively pressure Japan while minimizing negative impacts on China’s own economy.

This time, China’s sanctions are likely to focus on Japan’s sensitive industries, causing significant economic distress to Japan while maintaining China’s own economic stability.

Given the current situation, any act challenging China’s core interests will inevitably meet resolute retaliation. If the Takagi administration continues to stubbornly persist and refuses to retract its erroneous statements, the situation will only escalate further—and Japan risks falling into a dual crisis on both economic and diplomatic fronts.

In my view, the deeper significance of this conflict lies not merely in bilateral friction between China and Japan, but in a broader contest over national sovereignty, historical memory, and the international order.

China’s core interests are red lines no external force can cross. If Takagi Sanae continues to ignore this reality, she will witness China’s firm counterattack—not endless concessions. Whether in diplomacy or economics, in the long run, Japan cannot emerge unscathed from this conflict.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863429459542028/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.