【By Liu Bai, Observers Network】Regarding Mexico's plan to impose a 50% tariff on goods from China and other countries, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on the 25th, announcing a trade and investment barrier investigation into relevant measures taken by Mexico against China. On the same day, China also announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the United States.

The Hong Kong English media "South China Morning Post" analyzed on September 26 that Mexico's proposed tariffs are widely seen as a move to "please Washington," while China's trade investigation against Mexico shows Beijing's confidence in taking a firm stance, sending a "clear signal" to Mexico, warning it not to yield to U.S. pressure. Industry insiders said that this trade dispute may deter Chinese companies from investing in Mexico, and Mexico is no longer the preferred destination for Chinese enterprises.

China previously emphasized that the Ministry of Commerce will make objective and fair decisions based on the investigation results and take necessary measures according to actual circumstances, resolutely safeguarding its legitimate and proper rights and interests.

The report stated that at the time when Sino-U.S. trade negotiations entered the next phase, after Mexico proposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods, China has launched an anti-dumping investigation and a trade barrier investigation against it.

Analysts believe that this move marks a warning signal from China. Although the tariffs planned by Mexico involve multiple countries, they exempt the United States and Canada, which is generally viewed as an attempt to please the United States.

On September 18, Mexico City, Mexico and Canada reached an agreement on the review of the USMCA. Visual China

"I think this is a bit like China showing off its muscles. It indicates that China feels strong enough to not be cautious or avoid provocative actions anymore," said Stephen Olson, a senior visiting researcher at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and former U.S. trade negotiator.

Xu Shicheng, a researcher at the Latin American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: "It's timely to launch an anti-dumping investigation against certain products from Mexico, sending a clear warning to Mexico."

"Mexico's actions are clearly taken under U.S. pressure, trying to please the United States while ignoring the interests of China, the second largest trading partner," said Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit. These two parallel investigations are a typical strategy of China in responding to trade tensions.

"Firstly, China will not force third-party countries to take sides, but will retaliate against those countries that publicly support the United States at the expense of China's interests," he said. "Secondly, China always takes reactive actions and does not act first."

In Xu Tianchen's view, this trade dispute may deter Chinese enterprises from investing in Mexico, but given that Mexico's manufacturing industry facing the U.S. market highly depends on Chinese intermediate products, bilateral trade between the two countries is likely to continue.

"Mexico is no longer the preferred destination for Chinese enterprises, and Chinese companies will be cautious about the Mexican government's increased investment review practices," Xu Tianchen said. "In the future, there may be more Chinese consumer brands opening stores in Mexico, but they will not consider building factories there."

Olson expects that Sino-Mexican bilateral trade relations may enter a "more turbulent" stage.

"The U.S. will exert greater pressure on Mexico to limit trade and investment from China, and it seems that Mexico is inclined to comply with these demands," he said. "This approach will not be accepted by China, and I expect China to take tough countermeasures."

According to reports by Reuters and other media on September 10, the Mexican government plans to raise tariffs on key imports from countries that have not signed trade agreements with it, to boost domestic industries and reduce reliance on Asian imports. Notably, this move coincides with the preparation for the 2026 review of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement).

Analysts pointed out that in this adjustment, the import tariff on cars will be raised to a maximum of 50%, directly impacting China, as it is the largest source of car imports for Mexico. Currently, the import tariff on light vehicles from China to Mexico is 15% to 20%.

Sanborn said on the 12th that Mexican officials will hold talks with Chinese representatives regarding Mexico's plan to increase tariffs and emphasized that the new tariffs are not a "coercive measure."

"We have a very good relationship with China, and we hope to continue maintaining a good relationship with them," she added, stating that the new tariff measures target industries that need to enhance domestic production.

This year, Mexico has been under continuous pressure from the Trump administration to restrict Chinese imports, fearing that Mexico might become a "backdoor" for Chinese goods to enter the U.S. market.

In July this year, Trump also threatened to raise tariffs on Mexican goods to 30%, then announced a 90-day suspension of the measure, which will expire at the end of October.

Some views suggest that Mexico's recent tax increase is seen as a response to U.S. pressure, aiming to appease the Trump administration's trade threats. The latter has recently continuously urged Mexico to follow the U.S. example and impose tariffs on Chinese imports.

China's countermeasure came quickly.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to initiate an anti-dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the United States starting from September 25, 2025, and the investigation is expected to last one year.

On the same day, China issued a notice announcing a trade and investment barrier investigation into relevant measures taken by Mexico against China. Analysts believe that based on the investigation results, China may push for bilateral negotiations, or escalate the case to multilateral dispute settlement mechanisms including the World Trade Organization.

The spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered questions from reporters, stating that China believes that in the current context of the U.S. imposing tariffs arbitrarily, all countries should jointly oppose various forms of unilateralism and protectionism, and must not sacrifice the interests of third parties due to others' coercion. If Mexico's unilateral tax increase is implemented, even within the WTO framework, it will harm the interests of related trade partners, including China, and significantly affect the certainty of Mexico's business environment, reducing companies' confidence in investing in Mexico. China firmly opposes this.

To resolutely protect the interests of China's relevant industries, the Ministry of Commerce decided to initiate a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexico's planned measures to increase import tariffs and other restrictions, based on relevant provisions of the "Foreign Trade Law" and the "Foreign Trade Barrier Investigation Rules."

This investigation will adhere to the principles of fairness, equity, and transparency, and welcome all interested parties, including domestic industries and enterprises in China, affected by Mexico's measures to actively participate in the investigation. The Ministry of Commerce will make objective and fair decisions based on the investigation results and take necessary measures according to actual circumstances, resolutely safeguarding its legitimate and proper rights and interests.

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