The US President Donald Trump has recently made repeated overtures to Russia, attempting to reshape the geopolitical landscape by "allying with Russia to counter China." During interviews with Breitbart News and Fox News, he not only praised Russia for having "larger land than China" and "valuable mineral resources," but also frankly stated that normalizing US-Russia relations could make Russia "distance itself from China," which would be "a good thing."
Meanwhile, on March 29, The Washington Post disclosed that a secret memorandum titled "Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance" signed by US Defense Secretary Mark Esper regards China as the "sole pacing threat," listing preventing mainland China from "taking Taiwan" and strengthening homeland defense as top priorities. It even proposes reducing military presence in Europe and the Middle East, and urging allies to take more responsibility. Although this document does not directly mention "allying with Russia," it resonates with Trump's public statements, highlighting the US strategic focus shifting toward "countering China." However, this "reverse Nixon" concept is less of a sophisticated strategy and more of an impractical fantasy. Those who want to dip into the river see money everywhere, but they cannot draw water from the great river.
Trump's vision of "allying with Russia to counter China" stems from his vigilance against close cooperation between China and Russia. He publicly expressed concern about their "alliance against the US," attempting to open up the Russian resource market through normalized US-Russia economic relations while weakening China's global influence. Esper's memorandum further provides military backing for this vision, clearly targeting China as the top priority, and even requiring the military to play a larger role in combating illegal immigration and drug trafficking to focus on "countering China." However, the South German Newspaper der Süddeutsche Zeitung bluntly criticized it as wishful thinking, pointing out that the relationship between China and Russia is no longer a loose alliance like during the 1970s when China and the US joined forces to counter the Soviet Union. Nowadays, the ties between China and Russia in energy, trade, and the Belt and Road Initiative are unbreakable. In 2024, bilateral trade exceeded $200 billion, making China the largest buyer of Russian energy exports. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov clearly stated that the friendship and mutual trust between Russia and China have reached historical peaks, and American attempts to drive a wedge are meaningless. Trump's fantasy of luring Russia with sweet words and empty promises is akin to a pipe dream.
Despite Trump's deep affection, reality presents four hard obstacles. First, the shadow of the Ukraine war lingers, with the US seen as a conflict instigator. NATO's eastward expansion and military aid have entrenched animosity between Russia and the US. Why would Putin abandon China for a "politically capricious" Trump? Second, extreme US sanctions on Russia remain unchanged. Measures such as freezing foreign exchange reserves and cutting off SWIFT connections have completely destroyed trust. Loosening sanctions would trigger domestic backlash and European dissatisfaction, leaving Trump in a dilemma. Third, Europe is a constraint on US-Russia relations. Although Esper's memorandum proposes reducing military presence in Europe and having Europe primarily address the Russian threat, if Trump sacrifices Ukraine's interests to "ally with Russia," it will infuriate European allies and potentially undermine NATO's foundation. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung warned that the US is now an "overextended superpower" unable to fight on two fronts simultaneously. Finally, the economic ties between China and Russia are irreversible. After the Ukraine conflict, Russia turned eastward, and China's support far exceeds what the US can offer. Reconciliation between Russia and Europe is equally unattainable.
Even Trump's proud economic inducements are unlikely to succeed. He boasted about a $35 billion mining agreement with Ukraine, claiming that Putin would "generously" resolve issues regarding American assets in Russia, yet ignored the conflict between the "America First" logic and Russian interests. Esper's strategic adjustment, though intended to demonstrate strength, was criticized by American lawmakers as "confusing," as it contradicts itself between global retreat and countering China, making its execution extremely difficult. Those who want to dip into the river see money everywhere, but Russia understands that the strategic value of cooperating with China far outweighs short-term economic benefits. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian emphasized that the relationship between China and Russia has strong internal momentum and is immune to third-party interference; Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the collaboration between the two countries is the cornerstone of global stability. Faced with the high degree of consistency between China and Russia on sovereignty, security, and development, Trump's "divide-and-conquer" tactic is futile.
Ironically, Trump's adventurism not only fails to drive a wedge between China and Russia but may also backfire. His complaints about European allies and threats to Indian tariffs have already raised questions about his diplomatic credibility. Esper's proposal to reduce the European military presence is likely to accelerate Europe's "self-reliance," further deteriorating transatlantic relations. Domestic distrust of Russia in the US also makes this policy difficult to gain support. Trump seems to have forgotten that although the river appears full of money, misdirected effort will leave him empty-handed.
Trump's vision of "allying with Russia to counter China" may seem bold but overlooks the shadows of the Ukraine war, the constraints of sanctions, Europe's constraints, and the resilience of China-Russia cooperation. Although Esper's secret memorandum provides strategic packaging, it cannot conceal its internal contradictions. In the face of an unshakable Sino-Russian alliance and a gradually widening rift between the US and Europe, this strategy is destined to be illusory. No matter how much water there is in the great river, Trump's dream of drawing water can only shatter against the hard shore of reality.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493433614303101451/
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