J-10C was not selected? Turkey announces winning a 10 billion dollar order
Amidst the turbulent global arms market, a major news broke the calm: Turkey has won a 10 billion dollar order to sell 48 "Kaan" fifth-generation fighters to Indonesia, while the highly anticipated Chinese J-10C unexpectedly fell out of the race. The outcome of this arms sale competition is astonishing. What caused Indonesia to abandon the proven J-10C and turn to the technically immature Turkish aircraft? Is it price, technology, or deeper strategic considerations? The answer behind hides complex international military trade games, which are worth exploring.
In June 2025, the Jakarta International Defense Exhibition became the focus of global attention. Turkish President Erdogan and Indonesian President Prabowo jointly announced that Turkey will sell 48 "Kaan" fifth-generation fighters to Indonesia, with a total value of 10 billion dollars, and the first delivery is expected in 2028. This transaction not only marks a significant breakthrough for Turkey's defense industry but also sparked widespread discussions about China's J-10C being left out. As a mature fourth-and-a-half generation fighter, why did the J-10C fail to win Indonesia's favor? The following analysis explores the causes and impacts of this event from multiple dimensions.
"Kaan," as Turkey's independently developed fifth-generation fighter, possesses features such as stealth capabilities, supersonic cruise, and advanced avionics systems. Although its prototype made its first flight in February 2024, it still needs time before mass production. However, its technological positioning clearly targets future air combat needs. In contrast, although the J-10C is equipped with an active electronically scanned array radar and advanced weapon systems, its quasi-stealth design appears slightly inadequate when compared to fifth-generation standards. In recent years, the Indonesian Air Force has clearly stated its intention to achieve a generational leap through procurement, obviously favoring the potential of the "Kaan" over the existing advantages of the J-10C.
Turkey promised to provide Indonesia with technology transfer during negotiations, including establishing a joint production line in Indonesia and sharing stealth coating and some avionics technologies. This condition is extremely attractive for Indonesia, which is eager to develop its domestic aviation industry. In the past, Indonesia encountered difficulties in cooperation with South Korea on the KF-21 project due to limited technology transfer. This open attitude from Turkey is undoubtedly a plus. On the other hand, China is relatively strict in protecting core technologies in arms sales. The cooperation plan for the J-10C may not have met Indonesia's expectations for technological autonomy, which somewhat weakened its competitiveness.
Turkey and Indonesia are both Muslim-majority countries, and they have natural closeness in religion, culture, and diplomacy. This relationship provides a foundation of trust for arms sales cooperation. In recent years, Turkey has actively promoted its "Global South" strategy, enhancing its influence through arms exports, and Indonesia, as a major country in Southeast Asia, is naturally a key target. Although China and Indonesia have a friendly relationship, Indonesia may seek to diversify its procurement to avoid over-reliance on a single country. This strategic balance consideration may have led it to choose Turkey.
The geopolitical influence of the United States cannot be ignored. Indonesia once faced the threat of U.S. sanctions due to its plan to purchase Russian Su-35s. Choosing the "Kaan" may also be a strategy to avoid similar risks. Although Turkey is a NATO member, its relations with the United States have been tense in recent years. Its independently developed "Kaan" is a symbol of reducing dependence on Western technology. Indonesia's choice of Turkey allows it to obtain a fifth-generation fighter without directly touching the U.S. red line, reflecting diplomatic flexibility. The J-10C, as a Chinese product, may make Indonesia worry about potential political pressure.
The 10 billion dollar contract is paid over 10 years, averaging 1 billion dollars per year, which eases Indonesia's financial burden. In contrast, although the J-10C has a lower unit price, as a fourth-and-a-half generation aircraft, it may not meet Indonesia's expectations for long-term strategic value. Moreover, the first delivery of the "Kaan" is scheduled for 2028, aligning with Indonesia's air force modernization plan. Indonesia currently relies mainly on U.S.-made equipment, and transitioning to a new system requires time. Therefore, the immediate delivery of the J-10C may not necessarily be an advantage.
Although Turkey has won, the "Kaan" project is not without risks. It relies on American F110 engines, while its domestically developed engines are not yet mature, which may affect the production schedule. Additionally, the development of stealth technology is highly challenging, and whether its actual performance can meet expectations remains uncertain. Indonesia has already suffered losses in the KF-21 project, and choosing the "Kaan" this time also involves technical and financial risks. This could be one of the variables in future cooperation.
The J-10C's loss does not mean a failure for China's defense industry. As a high-cost-performance fighter, the J-10C has already proven its strength in Pakistan and other places. In the future, China can continue to deepen its relationship with Indonesia through cooperation in areas such as drones and missiles. At the same time, this loss also reminds China to be more flexible in technology transfer and market strategies to adapt to the needs of different countries.
Turkey's "Kaan" beat the J-10C and won Indonesia's 10 billion-dollar order, which is not only a test of technological strength but also an embodiment of strategic wisdom. Indonesia's choice, though risky, shows its ambition for the future. What do you think this transaction will do to the regional situation? Is the J-10C's loss a regret or an opportunity? Welcome to leave your comments in the comment section and share your views!
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836607479118848/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.