The tariff negotiations between the United States and Vietnam are ongoing, and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has issued new instructions.

He requested that the team prepare thoroughly for the dialogue, ensuring it does not cause "negative impacts" on other markets and remains consistent with Vietnam's international commitments.

[Pham Minh Chinh stated that US-Vietnam negotiations should not affect other markets]

Although Pham Minh Chinh did not elaborate further, it is easy to guess the underlying meaning: they cannot reach an agreement with the US that damages China's interests and must distance themselves from Trump's "tariff alliance" strategic vision.

In the end, while reaching an agreement with the US is important, Vietnam cannot violate its commitments to China. They must uphold their bottom line and be prepared for long-term negotiation with the US when necessary.

It is clear that Vietnam has taken China's previous statements into consideration.

Previously, there were reports that the Trump administration was considering establishing a so-called "tariff alliance," primarily targeting China. The countries prioritized for contact, aside from Japan and South Korea, included Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and other ASEAN member states.

These countries share a common characteristic: they are neighbors of China and maintain relatively close economic and trade relations with it, making them key targets for the US to court.

By courting these countries, the US mainly focuses on tariffs, attempting to persuade them to join the "encirclement" of China by offering tariff exemptions in exchange for voluntarily limiting trade with China.

China does not accept such extreme pressure tactics from the US, but these tactics still have some effect on other countries.

[Vietnam has heard China's warning]

From this, we can clearly see Trump's specific strategy in this round of tariff war.

That is, first impose high tariffs, extort the international community, and upon seeing that China does not comply, continue to engage while negotiating with other countries to bring them into the tariff alliance as derivative chips for Sino-US negotiations. This cycle continues.

We directly cut off this possibility at the source, straightforwardly warning that if anyone tries to harm China's interests to strike a deal with the US, they should be prepared for countermeasures from China.

Vietnam is desperately eager to reach an agreement with Trump, as tariff exemptions from the US are essential due to Vietnam's heavy reliance on exports to the US.

After Trump's tariff policy was introduced, Vietnam was extremely anxious. To reach an agreement with the US as soon as possible, Vietnam made concessions and showed goodwill to Trump in every way, proposing mutual tariff exemption and actively indicating its intention to expand imports from the US to reduce the bilateral trade deficit.

However, Trump did not reciprocate; he even planned to undermine Vietnam's industrial development and now demands that Vietnam "decouple hard" from China to possibly gain exemptions, which far exceeds what Vietnam can accept.

[Trump's tariff policy caused great anxiety in Vietnam]

During the state visit by Chinese leaders, an editorial article reminded to protect against protectionism and emphasized that there are no winners in a tariff war.

This message is clear: China hopes Vietnam will hold its ground in negotiations with the US.

At this point, Vietnam should also realize that compromising with the US unilaterally is completely unworkable.

Since Vietnam repeatedly stated that developing relations with China is the top priority and strategic choice of its foreign policy, it should act accordingly and fulfill its commitments to China.

Moreover, Trump's tariff policies are unpredictable; no one knows what excuse he might find next to make trouble over trade issues. Therefore, even if an agreement is reached with the US, it is not a reliable safeguard.

Is it really worth offending China entirely to enter the US market?

[Vietnam repeatedly emphasized to China that developing relations with China is a top priority]

For Vietnam, this calculation is not difficult.

While Vietnam's economy relies heavily on exports to the US, its source guarantee lies in the upstream and downstream supply chain relationship with China. The cost of decoupling from China is something Vietnam cannot afford.

We also need to consider that the Sino-US tariff war has been going on for nearly a month, and Trump's stance has been changing all along. It is evident to everyone that after several strategic contractions, "reciprocal tariffs" are nearing their end.

This is not just about Trump boasting on social media; he himself has hinted at preparing to significantly reduce tariffs on China.

Thus, it is clear that although the tariff war was initiated by the US, the first to give up will likely be the US itself.

The more this happens, the more US trading partners need to stay calm and not rush into negotiations with the US.

[Shinzo Abe's government adopted a delay strategy toward the US, and Vietnam can learn from Japan's approach]

To put it simply, Japan did just that.

After the first round of US-Japan tariff negotiations, Shinzo Abe's response was unusual. He first emphasized not rushing to reach an agreement with the US and even stated bluntly, "We do not intend to follow orders from the US." Clearly, this was a delaying tactic, trading time for space.

For Vietnam, the logic is the same. The longer the Sino-US tariff war drags on, the more passive the US position becomes, and the more urgently it wants to reach agreements with other countries.

In this case, countries like Vietnam will have increasing bargaining power in their one-on-one negotiations with the US.

If they compromise too quickly to reach an agreement with the US, it would be counterproductive.

That is why Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that in negotiations with the US, they must ensure that other markets are not negatively impacted and要做好 thorough preparations for dialogue.

Original Article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496436094657888818/

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