This "tariff war" ended the first round with Trump's concession and China's "a picture is worth a thousand words, actions speak louder than words."

According to a report by the Associated Press on April 23, U.S. President Trump announced: he will "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, and candidly admitted that "145% is really too high, but it won't be zero."

U.S. President Trump

In addition, Trump also sent signals of goodwill, saying that his relationship with China was "very good," and hoped both sides could reach an agreement. Even if no agreement was reached, other ways could still be used to resolve tariff issues.

Whether Trump's move is genuinely intended for negotiation or just a smokescreen remains unknown, but we can still catch a glimpse through some situations.

On April 11, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) suddenly announced that a zero-tariff policy would be implemented for 127 items of Chinese technology products exported to the United States, including smartphones, laptops, and chips, completely removing the previously high "reciprocal tariff" list which had been as high as 125%.

This adjustment was evaluated by foreign media as "the first signal of Trump's retreat," although other products were still subject to tariff increases, the tech industry where the U.S. still maintained a clear advantage was the first to concede, indicating that the U.S. was not prepared in other industries either.

After all, smartphones and other tech products are among the main consumer tools for Americans to participate in politics. Once electronic devices start to increase in price, the discontent among Americans will quickly rise.

Trump and his supporters

Currently, American middle-class households have seen their annual spending surge by $1,800 due to tariffs, and the year-over-year inventory buildup of electronics has surged by 47%. This forces the Trump administration to face reality and prioritize exempting rates for electronics.

If Americans can't afford cell phones, how can Trump "govern via Twitter"? In terms of the difficulty of manufacturing transfer, it is also unlikely that domestic U.S. electronics manufacturing will return in the short term. Imposing tariffs blindly will only cause the U.S. to lose its edge in the electronics industry.

For many reasons, Trump prioritized concessions in the tech sector, but he soon realized that other products also had various problems, though the chain reaction was not as rapid as that of electronics.

This means that regardless of what card Trump plays next, he must recognize the reality of his own poor hand and seek buffer, delay conflict, and reshuffle the cards. This is one of the main underlying logics behind Trump's "concession."

Of course, relying solely on Trump's latest statement to conclude that the U.S. has completely backed down is overly naive. While constantly emphasizing that "an agreement with China will be reached," the U.S. is actively contacting allies to follow suit and impose tariffs on China, restricting trade with China.

European Commission President von der Leyen, U.S. Vice President Vance

Trump hopes to continue Biden's policy of courting allies, dragging the EU, Japan, India, and others into the mix. For instance, India announced a temporary 12% tariff on Chinese steel.

However, the situation with the EU is not so simple. Trump's position change during the Russia-Ukraine war has already greatly displeased the EU. Now trying to coerce the EU into strengthening trade restrictions on China is treating Europe like a fool.

The EU's response was very straightforward: the U.S.-EU tariff negotiations are unrelated to EU-China relations, these are "two completely different matters." The EU's policy toward China will remain unchanged, and the EU will not decouple from China.

The meaning is clear: the EU will not sacrifice its relations with China for U.S.-EU relations. Under Trump's repeated torment, the EU has also awakened. This is in stark contrast to the EU under the Biden era, which relied entirely on G7 decisions as guidance.

The tariff war has been met with layers of countermeasures, the return of manufacturing has disappeared without a trace, and calls for commands have received no response from allies. Trump has tried all these methods, but ultimately they have amounted to much ado about nothing, creating a lot of news hype but achieving none of his desired results.

Port trade

Ultimately, the essence of the tariff war is a dispute over the distribution of globalization dividends. America's "concession" reveals the limitations of its hegemonic logic: failing to recognize the fundamental reasons for its rise, still believing itself to be the global center, and wanting to maintain this status despite isolation.

The result is that America becomes self-secluded and arrogant, being marginalized more and more in the滚滚forward historical current, harming others ultimately harms itself.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496348638487200310/

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