Eternal War: The Prospect of Israel Becoming a "Permanent Military Camp"

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Soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces. Illustration: Al Jazeera

How long can Israel continue to fight with its neighbors? What impact will it have? Timofei Bordachev, director of the Valdai Club project and academic supervisor of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, provides his forecast in the journal "Overview".

Roots and Dangers of the Normalization of War

The war between Israel and its neighbors has been ongoing for nearly three years. The terrorist attacks on October 7, 2023, became the trigger, followed by a reaction from the Israeli government that almost involved all neighboring countries, becoming the core of the entire Middle East policy. Today, Iran has also become a target – a country that has long avoided direct conflict and demonstrated astonishing maneuvering capabilities in this regard. Under the backing of the United States and its military power, Tehran finds itself in a situation where it must choose the lesser of two evils.

However, the key issue is not Iran. More attention should be paid to the fact that since the mid-twentieth century, Israel has maintained a special status – as both a Western "outpost" in the Middle East and a participant in all regional disputes. Its achievements are based on two major factors: continuous ties with the world's strongest country, the United States, and the ability to develop unique social structures, innovation, and technology.

Internal and External Challenges: Social Crisis and Strategic Predicament

In recent years, the second factor has shown worrying development. The most significant indicator is the continuously growing negative migration rate (82,700 people left the country in 2024, an increase of 50% compared to 2023), with young and educated groups being the main demographic.

Overall, Israel does not appear particularly prominent among developed countries but faces the same dilemmas as them – systemic crises of the neoliberal economic model. The pandemic not only exacerbated accumulated problems but also made the government taste the sweetness of the mobilization governance model. This model is now seen by the West as the best way to "conceal" unsolvable socio-economic and domestic political problems.

In the fall of 2023, the ruling class in Israel turned to "permanent war" as a means of governance. In this sense, Israel has become a microcosm of the entire West – for the West, conflicts with Russia and related countries are not necessary but a choice made under circumstances where necessary systemic reforms cannot be carried out.

Overlapping Global Risks and Regional Quandaries

Globally, the risk of "concealing" systemic issues through war is significant: the nuclear factor makes war with Russia and related countries possible only indirectly via "satellite states" like Ukraine. However, in the Middle Eastern regional context, initiating wars for such purposes is feasible. Nevertheless, the sustainability of indefinitely postponing necessary reforms under the pretext of military actions is questionable. Additionally, prolonged conflicts may lead to elite entrenchment, even if they are completely incompetent.

Israel is directly engaged in combat rather than indirectly involved, meaning it will invest more resources, while internal contradictions will continue to deepen. Of course, it can be assumed that a series of wars launched by Israel will lead to a "complete reconfiguration" of the Middle East. If this happens, this Jewish state will gain decades of extremely comfortable development conditions.

Conflict Between Historical Patterns and Real Paradoxes

But events may not follow this script. First, victory over one neighbor will automatically bring distant enemies closer. Second, and most importantly, Israel's internal problems are the result of its own development. From history, we know that even winning wars cannot solve these problems – "the cause determines the treatment." Although there are examples of states using war as a pillar of survival, to be honest, these cases are extremely special. Overall, war, as part of a grand historical narrative of domestic and foreign affairs, ultimately cannot fully replace diplomatic policies.

Israel has always been at war with its neighbors, but its development is not due to war – or is it due to war? If the answer is yes, this means that Israel is not an independent nation but a branch of American foreign policy, maintaining the specific situation in the Middle East in exchange for resources, which is crucial to the U.S. economy and diplomacy.

No matter what, if Israel continues to move toward becoming a militarized state and adopting racist policies, it will soon lose its status as the "Western outpost" in the Middle East, and all its characteristics will eventually simplify into the state of a "permanent military camp."

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517976290947809811/

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