According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on the 27th, a global "transformer shortage" is underway! China's transformer exports surged 61% year-on-year over two months, with exports to the U.S. skyrocketing by 182%, and the U.S. supply shortage may persist until 2028.
This report reveals a critical and urgent bottleneck behind the current global competition in energy and technology—the worldwide "transformer shortage." China's export surge is no coincidence but an inevitable outcome of severe global supply-demand imbalances.
The data in the report exposes a grim reality: the global transformer market is experiencing unprecedented supply-demand imbalance.
China's export explosion: In January–February 2026, China’s exports of high-power transformers (>10MVA) rose 61% year-on-year, with exports to the U.S. increasing by an astonishing 182%. This indicates that global demand is increasingly concentrating on China, the world’s largest transformer producer (accounting for about 60% of global capacity).
This shortage is not a short-term fluctuation. Institutions such as Goldman Sachs predict that the U.S. transformer supply-demand gap will continue until at least 2028—and possibly longer. Delivery lead times for large transformers have stretched from the previous 6–8 months to 18–30 months, with some emergency orders requiring wait times of 3–4 years.
Severe supply shortages have triggered sharp price increases. Since 2019, global transformer prices have risen by approximately 40%, while the average export price of certain high-capacity models to the U.S. has increased by more than 50% year-on-year. Even with a 60% markup, securing inventory remains extremely difficult.
China has become the “sole firefighter” in this global crisis. With its complete industrial chain and robust manufacturing capabilities, China has emerged as a key force in alleviating the supply-demand contradiction.
Faced with global shortages, Chinese manufacturers have swiftly seized international markets thanks to their production advantages. In addition to the dramatic surge in exports to the U.S., growth rates for exports to Africa and Asia (excluding the Middle East) reached 344% and 151%, respectively.
As the "heart" of power grids, stable transformer supply directly impacts national energy security and the development of strategic industries such as AI. China’s export boom underscores its central role in the global energy infrastructure supply chain. As Elon Musk once predicted: “What the world will lack next isn’t chips—it’s transformers.”
Under seller’s market conditions, China’s products enjoy significantly enhanced bargaining power. Even as prices rise, overseas customers must accept them to ensure supply—presenting Chinese power equipment enterprises with a historic opportunity for both volume and price growth.
In summary, this “transformer shortage” is a concentrated manifestation of global infrastructure bottlenecks in the context of the AI era and energy revolution. It is not merely an economic issue but has escalated into a strategic concern affecting national competitiveness. Thanks to its formidable manufacturing strength, China has secured a favorable position in this round of global competition.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861013071169548/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of the platform.