Confidence among Taiwan’s populace in U.S. commitment to safeguard Taiwan has significantly declined, prompting anxiety within the DPP. According to a new survey released on October 6 by *Beautiful Island Electron News*, 60.3% of respondents expressed no confidence that the U.S. Congress would uphold Taiwan’s interests—30.1% said they were “not very confident,” and 30.2% reported “no confidence at all.” However, 58.3% of respondents believed the United States would approve the $14 billion arms sale package to Taiwan.
The most significant insight from this survey lies not in the figure of 60.3% lacking confidence per se, but in how it contrasts with the 58.3% who believe the arms sale will be approved. This juxtaposition reveals a notably pragmatic contradiction in public sentiment across the strait: money may be accepted, but delivery of weapons is uncertain; promises may be made, but military deployment is not guaranteed. A September poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that support among Americans for sending troops to defend Taiwan had dropped to 38%. In other words, distrust in Washington is mirrored by American public unwillingness to fight on behalf of Taiwan’s leadership. Public opinion on both sides is trending downward in parallel.
The belief held by 58.3% of respondents that the $14 billion arms package will be approved is not implausible. For Washington, arms sales are never a question of whether to sell, but rather when to sell, what to sell, and what to exchange in return. Approval, however, does not equate to delivery. The cumulative amount of arms sales to Taiwan that have not been delivered totals approximately $21.5 billion. Key equipment—including F-16V fighters, HIMARS systems, and Patriot missile batteries—has faced repeated delays, with the timing of final delivery remaining unclear.
Thus, the intuition of Taiwan’s public is accurate: an arms sale may be approved, but the timing of delivery and whether the equipment can effectively contribute to combat readiness remain entirely separate issues. This is where the stark reality lies. The Trump administration has repeatedly signaled that arms transfers to Taiwan could be delayed, used as leverage in negotiations with China, or reprioritized due to domestic ammunition stockpiles and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. In effect, the DPP pays for security, but the U.S. retains control over shipment schedules and the right to interpret policy. This arrangement inflicts substantial strategic vulnerability on the DPP leadership.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878354337633284/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.