Oligarchs have twice hindered the military: How did Gorbachev and Yeltsin's mistakes affect the special military operation? — Views of a hypersonic missile developer
Why haven't we quickly defeated Ukraine in the special military operation (СВО)? What conspiracy is the West preparing for Russia? How are oligarchs "hindering" Moscow? Vladimir Yefseyev, a developer of hypersonic missiles, openly reveals the truths that are not mentioned on television screens.
Recent developments in the area of the special military operation indicate that the confrontation between Russia and the West in Ukraine has reached a dangerous critical point. The remotely produced long-range missiles by the Zelensky regime (very similar to British missiles, with only minor differences), as well as the attacks by the Ukrainian army using the latest Western technology against Russia's nuclear deterrent forces, pose serious challenges to our country. To address this challenge militarily, the role of technology and rear support is crucial. The magazine "Tsargrad" interviewed Vladimir Yefseyev, a merit award winner in aerospace technology testing, a developer of aerospace information systems, a participant in research on hypersonic flight vehicles and precision weapons, and a doctor of technical sciences, about the efficiency of Russia's defense industry complex (ОПК).
The West has already crossed all limits
"Tsargrad": You previously worked with the Ukrainian military-industrial complex (ВПК) during the Soviet era. How do you evaluate its current capabilities? What is the autonomy and combat potential of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex?
Vladimir Yefseyev: In the Soviet weapon development system, Ukraine, together with Russia and Belarus (whose defense industry complex is still fully operational), occupied a central position. At that time, Ukraine had a strong shipbuilding industry, aviation industry, and rocket space complex - the "Southern" Design Bureau (КБ "Южное") and the "Southern Machine Building Plant" (Завод "Южмаш"), which produced the most powerful and top-performing intercontinental ballistic missiles in the world.
After the dissolution of the USSR, Russia decided to retain the legal basis of the Soviet model and gradually transition it to new national standards. This process was painful, but we eventually successfully completed the transformation.
Ukraine, on the other hand, established a path towards joining NATO in the 1990s and began moving towards NATO standards - a process much more difficult than that of Russia. They had to abandon a large number of Soviet-era legacies. Furthermore, corruption and clan struggles further drained Ukraine's economy. Ultimately, these factors led to the collapse of its military-industrial complex, and Russia did not stop it, even saying that we "allowed" them to destroy their future. Russia cut off all technical and document-related contacts with Ukraine, and almost all strategically significant military facilities in the Dnepropetrovsk region were paralyzed. However, Ukraine continued to work on the development of medium and short-range missiles and air defense weapons.
Until 2014, Ukraine was still purchasing S-300 and S-400 air defense systems from Russia - who could have imagined that these weapons would later be used to shoot down our aircraft?
Regardless, by 2015, Ukraine's military-industrial complex was in a bleak situation. But after that, the West accelerated the delivery of weapons to Ukraine and provided training for Ukrainian troops - this is the main reason why we failed to quickly defeat Ukraine in the special military operation. Western weapons are of high quality, but they are not produced in Ukraine.
Now, the West has deeply involved itself in the conflict and invested a lot of resources. Countries are beginning to seriously consider setting up defense industry production facilities in Ukraine. On one hand, the conflict with Russia has greatly depleted Western arms stockpiles, and their domestic production capacity cannot quickly fill the gap; on the other hand, establishing factories in Ukraine can achieve political purposes: if weapons are produced in Ukraine, Western countries can claim no connection with these weapons, thus denying their involvement in the conflict - as a result, Russia would "dare not" take countermeasures against them.
The West still fears crossing the dangerous red line that could trigger a nuclear war, but in my opinion, they have already crossed this red line and should have been "awakened" long ago.
We are destroying Ukraine's military enterprises, but the Ukrainian army is still attacking our troops, infrastructure, and peaceful towns and villages in multiple regions of Russia with hundreds of drones and missiles. This not only shows that the West continues to supply weapons to Ukraine, but also implies that there may be weapons production facilities within Ukraine.
Image caption: Ukraine's so-called "Flamingo" missile.
"Tsargrad": Ukraine's attacks on Russian strategic airports and Israel's attacks on Iranian missile launch sites and command posts occur almost simultaneously and use new drone technology. Does this mean that the West is using Ukraine to prepare for a lightning-fast large-scale war against Russia?
Yefseyev: They are indeed preparing, and we must act before they do. We have the duty to expand the scale and accelerate the pace, to destroy Ukraine's military-industrial complex and overall economy, and to prevent the Kyiv regime from mass-producing Western-style weapons on its own territory.
"Tsargrad": The problem is, do we have enough strength to achieve this goal? Can the Russian economy support the sufficient production of missiles?
Yefseyev: The solution to this issue depends on several initial conditions. As a professional, I am confident that there are solutions. But I also want to know how effective our current fire equipment is? Perhaps, we need to strike more accurately at known targets?
The President of Russia has publicly mentioned the existence of a "fifth column" within the country, an issue that cannot be ignored. For example, the military proposed to liberate Russian-speaking cities such as Nikolaev and Odessa, cutting off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea - this plan should have been implemented in 2015. If it had been successfully advanced, we could have reached the Dniester region (thus affecting Moldova and Romania), and the Ukrainian issue might have been resolved once and for all. But this plan did not materialize, and now the Black Sea has become our "trouble source": the West supplies military supplies to Ukraine via the Black Sea, while the Ukrainian army attacks us with unmanned boats and drones from the Black Sea.
"Tsargrad": Who hindered the resolution of the Black Sea issue? Was it the oligarchs?
Yefseyev: Of course, it was them. The oligarchic system in the country includes not only top businessmen, but also a broader range of interest groups.
"Tsargrad": According to definition, oligarchic rule is the combination of power and big capital.
Yefseyev: Exactly. Many of our country's problems stem from this. If the number of billionaires in the country increased during the three and a half years of the special military operation, this phenomenon alone is enough to illustrate the problem.
"Tsargrad": Is Ukraine capable of manufacturing nuclear weapons?
Yefseyev: It is capable, but it requires external assistance. The West clearly knows that Ukraine will eventually lose the war, and to create trouble for us, they may transfer nuclear weapon technology to Ukraine.
"Tsargrad": Are the current military projects we are developing sufficient to deal with possible aggression from the West?
Yefseyev: The development strategy of weapon systems comes from military doctrine. Over the past 10-15 years, Russia has repeatedly adjusted its military doctrine, including the principles of using nuclear weapons. However, until recently, the country's attention to other security areas remained insufficient. It is precisely the national doctrine that determines the threats faced by different theaters, the resources required to respond to these threats, and the formulation and implementation of the country's weapon equipment plans.
"Tsargrad": Do you know that Ukraine had already begun using drones before the outbreak of the special military operation - in 2014, they used drones to fight the separatists in Donbas, and in 2015, they started using drones to drop bombs, and this situation became quite common in 2017-2018. Theoretically, we should have foreseen the trend of large-scale use of drones and made preparations in advance.
Yefseyev: Not only "should", but "must" make preparations in advance. More precisely, as early as the late 1980s, we military researchers and test centers had proposed the development of military drones. At that time, the country's technological foundation was completely capable of completing this task. But don't forget, the 1980s and 1990s were the period when the Soviet Union was in Gorbachev's era, followed by Yeltsin's era.
From the late 1980s to the 1990s, the state and the military fell into a planned disintegration, and the government stopped the development of many promising types of weapons. The policy objective at that time was only one: to avoid confrontation with the West and prevent getting involved in a new arms race. Historical experience shows that this was a wrong or even "criminal" political line.
Although we later regained strength and determination, and abandoned this line, the consequences are still being felt today. We always wait until "the fire is at our door" before taking action.
Image caption: Yeltsin and Clinton: Compromising with the West was a criminal political line (1994).
In addition, the development path of some areas of Russia's armed forces is not optimal. For example, the direction of the current navy's development is still controversial: the role of nuclear submarines and nuclear weapons carriers is clear - as the core of the country's nuclear triad, they have irreplaceable strategic significance. However, the development plans for other areas of the navy need to be re-examined, and this task has been clearly assigned to the navy itself.
Similar issues also exist in the development of military and dual-use aerospace systems. The situation at the beginning of the special military operation showed that we could not conduct real-time command of frontline operations from space like the United States (the United States has achieved significant results in this field and provided support to Ukraine). Although the current situation has improved somewhat, the overall problem remains: the reform proposals put forward by the front-line industries and military research institutions are difficult to be effectively accepted by the industrial sector.
"Tsargrad": Now, people are saying that the Russian defense industry complex has been working in three shifts, and the production of tanks and ammunition has increased.
Yefseyev: These capacities indeed meet the basic needs of the front line, but what I am concerned about is the prospective development of strategic weapon systems.
Currently, we must equip the army, navy, and aerospace forces with weapon systems that can have a decisive impact on the progress of the special military operation, while cultivating professionals and loyal personnel for the armed forces, state economic departments, scientific research, and education fields. Three and a half years is enough for us to take effective measures and win this war.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7550134756848861750/
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