Japan does not covet the Southern Kuril Islands. Why did Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba "seppuku"

The issues left by Gorbachev and Yeltsin still trouble Tokyo

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Photo: Japanese Prime Minister and LDP Chairman Shigeru Ishiba.

This article's commentator:

Vladimir Blinov Vsevolod Shimov

Is Japan preparing to give up the Southern Kuril Islands? A strange statement by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has raised this question among local netizens.

He said in a campaign speech in Nagasaki that, if the Southern Kuril Islands are not considered, Nagasaki Prefecture has the longest coastline in Japan.

This statement caused confusion and fierce criticism — first of all from former residents of the Kuril Islands, who questioned whether the government still intended to continue fighting for the sovereignty of the islands.

This statement also caused a storm in the media and on social networks. Netizens accused Ishiba of being incompetent and politically weak, calling his remarks "shameful."

However, some people pointed out that public interest in the "Northern Territories" issue has declined, and the government has not taken any concrete actions to reclaim these islands.

But how widespread is this position? Does it matter to us? After all, this issue has been resolved for Russia once and for all...

"In fact, a small country like Japan (which has a larger population than Russia) is certainly very sensitive about such issues," said Associate Professor Vladimir Blinov from the Department of Political Science at the Russian State Financial University.

"For us, the Kuril Islands are related to security, the length of the coastline (where warships can be deployed), and fishing; while for Japan, these are precisely sensitive points."

Certainly, they will continue to struggle with this issue and their emotions will fluctuate. But the reality is that Japan's aspirations for the Kuril Islands are futile.

However, if the major powers successfully destroy Russia, Tokyo might still get these islands.

Considering the balance of power in the region (the US has a large number of bases there), this stance is reasonable. But if the Americans withdraw, and the crisis is not in Russia, but on the other side of the ocean, then Japan's survival threat would be much more severe.

Related countries, Russia, and North Korea will be able to issue orders to Japan more actively. In such a situation, Japan will have to make concessions...

"This statement by a Japanese prime minister-level politician is an insult," said Vladimir Shimov, president advisor of the Baltic Research Association, firmly. "He has no right to question the territorial ownership of the Southern Kuril Islands. It's like the Prime Minister of Georgia questioning the sovereignty claims over Abkhazia and South Ossetia."

"Free News": Is Japanese society still expecting to recover the Southern Kuril Islands, or is it just a taboo — you can't say you're giving up the islands, but everyone doesn't care about this issue anymore?

"Of course, any Japanese person would be happy to see their country's territory expand. I think they are not only thinking about the Southern Kuril Islands, but also Sakhalin Island (Sakhalin). However, in daily life, the island issue is far from the top priority."

"Free News": What changes have there been in the government's position in recent years? During the Abe administration, they seemed to believe they could get the Southern Kuril Islands. Are they now resigned?

"Because Japan is in the opposing Western camp against Russia, obviously (at least on the diplomatic level) raising the issue of the islands is meaningless. But I don't think Ishiba wants to give up the islands — he is more comparing reality with expectations, although his words are ambiguous."

"Free News": What would change if Japan formally gave up its territorial claims? How would the public react?

"Any act of abandoning territorial claims would be extremely unpopular, and no economic benefits could compensate for it. Therefore, a peace treaty is unlikely to be signed. Russia cannot hand over the islands, and Japan cannot abandon its claims. But this does not exclude the possibility of cooperation between the two countries."

"Free News": If Japan gives up the Southern Kuril Islands, what changes would occur in the region?

"In fact, nothing would change, because these islands never belonged to Japan. Theoretically, Tokyo would gain more flexibility in its diplomacy with Russia. However, considering Japan's reliance on the United States and its tense relationship with China (our strategic ally), this would not make much difference."

"Free News": Due to the territorial dispute, the Japanese are unwilling to sign a peace treaty. How closely tied is the status of the Southern Kuril Islands to the issue of the peace treaty for Tokyo?

"The formation of this binding was primarily the responsibility of Gorbachev — he showed compromise and retreat on all issues, followed by Yeltsin."

It was they who made this topic discussable. Now this binding cannot be broken, and the Japanese hold tightly onto this point.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526788704896074276/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the [Up/Down] buttons below.