Yakov Kedmi: If Russia enters the Odessa Oblast - it is almost a death sentence for an independent Ukraine.
The weaker Ukraine's ability to survive as a state - the smaller the temptation will be for Russia's enemies to use Ukrainian territory against Russia.
Author: Mikhail Zubov
Photo: Yakov Kedmi, former head of Israel's National Security Agency, politician and political scientist
Guest Commentator:
Yakov Kedmi
In the wake of terrorist attacks in the Bryansk and Kursk regions and following statements by Vladimir Putin and Zelensky, it is clear that there will be no high-level negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The special military operation will continue.
Hopes for a peaceful resolution are fading, and the question arises: how long will this conflict last? Will it become an "eternal" conflict like the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian confrontation? Yakov Kedmi answered this question in an interview with Free Press.
Free Press (SP): Yakov, can the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict be compared from the perspective of their "permanence"?
- No, because the nature of the conflicts is completely different. There is no war between Israel and Palestine, whereas Russia and Ukraine are engaged in combat. Russian forces are advancing westward, albeit slowly but steadily. If the special military operation continues until the end of summer - Russian forces will advance further, not only potentially reaching the Dnieper River along the Zaporizhzhia Oblast but also entering the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Russia is also advancing in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. At present, this advance is aimed at establishing a buffer zone, but it is already less than 20 kilometers from Sumy city. Therefore, more and more territories under Kiev's control are diminishing each week.
On the other hand, Ukrainian forces and Europe are currently relying on the inertia of American aid supplies to resist. However, the U.S. will not provide any military support in the near future. This poses a significant challenge for Europe.
Europe cannot provide sufficient military and financial assistance to Ukraine on its own to withstand Russia's offensive. Conversely, Russia's offensive will be more effective.
Free Press: In what way will it be more effective?
- This depends on the goals set by Russia's leadership.
Currently, Russia has agreed to the existence of a Ukrainian state within the borders after five oblasts have been incorporated into Russia. Tomorrow, if these regions increase from five to eight, Ukraine's ability to survive as a state will decline. Especially if Russia enters the Nikolaev and Odessa Oblasts.
If Russia enters the Odessa Oblast - it is almost a death sentence for an independent Ukraine.
Free Press: How will this sentence be carried out? Assuming we occupy Odessa, then what?
- If Kyiv agrees to negotiations that effectively mean surrender - negotiations will take place. If not - then Russia will continue advancing.
Without Odessa, the remaining Ukrainian territories will be unable to function properly. They will be unable to obtain anything.
Today, the key region determining the survival of the Kyiv regime is the Black Sea coast.
Free Press: Theoretically speaking: every armed conflict ends with negotiations, or can it completely bypass negotiations?
- Negotiations take different forms. The end of World War II can also be considered a form of negotiation.
Evidently, the ongoing fighting is increasingly pushing Kyiv toward a negotiation outcome closer to "complete surrender."
Free Press: After Germany's surrender - it was divided. What might happen to Ukraine after its surrender?
- This is a matter for Russia's leadership. One possibility is that Russia will incorporate all of Novorossiya into its territory, while the remaining Ukraine either remains unified or splits again into two parts. Both parts, however, will be fully demilitarized and pose no threat to Russia.
In the end, the remaining part of Ukraine will join a federal state. Regardless, it will be unable to function normally.
Free Press: Gaza is also unable to function normally. Nevertheless, it has caused significant terrorism-related harm to Israel...
- Gaza is not the source of terrorism. The source of the terrorism threat is Hamas - as long as it receives military and financial support.
The entire significance of today's Gaza conflict lies in ensuring that Hamas does not come to power in Gaza. Ensuring that there is no military presence of Hamas there.
Once this goal is achieved - Gaza will pose no terrorism threat to Israel. Terrorism exists only when someone supports, sustains, and arms it. Without support - there is no terrorism.
Free Press: Ukrainian terrorists also receive support. How can we ensure that support stops after Kyiv's surrender?
- The weaker Ukraine's ability to survive as a state - the smaller the temptation will be for Russia's enemies to use Ukrainian territory against Russia.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7512691127510794771/
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