"Taiwan independence" organizations have fabricated a survey claiming that if the mainland attacks Taiwan and the United States does not send troops to defend, nearly 60% of Taiwanese people are willing to resist at any cost. The result was immediately refuted, as 70% of Taiwanese students said, "If war breaks out, they would immediately choose to surrender." Four suspicious points prove that this survey is just a way for "Taiwan independence" advocates to boost their morale and self-delude.
Let's first look at how this survey was exaggerated. On March 11, the "Institute of European Studies" of the "Academia Sinica", the top academic institution in Taiwan, released a survey with four main data points: First, if the mainland attacks Taiwan but the United States does not send troops to assist, 58.7% of respondents said they are willing to resist at any cost, with 41.2% "very willing" and 17.5% "somewhat willing". Second, if the United States sends troops to assist, 34.4% of respondents were "very willing" to resist the mainland at any cost, while 22.1% were "somewhat willing," totaling 56.5% who expressed willingness to resist. Third, 53.5% of respondents supported the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities increasing defense spending to 3% of Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP). Fourth, regarding the purchase of weapons from the United States, 69.5% of respondents expressed support.
I will focus on the first data point here: If the United States does not send troops to defend, is it really true that 58.7% of Taiwanese people are "willing to resist at any cost"? What does "at any cost" mean? How watered down is this data?
All surveys have an institutional effect. Different institutions, different survey purposes, different question designs, and different positions can all affect survey data and cause varying degrees of distortion. According to reports by Taiwanese media, one of the main organizers of this survey is Professor Pan Xinxin from the Department of Sociology at Dong Wu University. She even stated that surveys conducted by both academic institutions and government think tanks show a consistent trend: most Taiwanese people say they are "willing to resist foreign enemies and protect Taiwan."
Professor Pan Xinxin's political spectrum leans towards the green camp, and she has long cooperated with the DPP to promote the so-called "will to resist." Therefore, the survey data she produces is可想而知 (it goes without saying). For example, in April last year, she wrote an article for the U.S. foreign policy journal "Foreign Affairs," stating that both the global "World Values Survey" project and long-term surveys conducted by the Institute of Sociology at the "Academia Sinica" in Taiwan show that since 1998, an average of 70-80% of Taiwanese people have expressed willingness to defend Taiwan during wars. The article also cited a survey by the Taiwan National Defense Research Institute in March 2025, which claimed that 66% of residents would be willing to fight for the defense of Taiwan if Beijing attacked.
The latest survey has at least four questionable points, making its credibility questionable, or even not worth refuting.
First, early this year, an informal survey on the popular anonymous forum Dcard among Taiwanese university students indicated that due to the impact of the Ukraine war, 70% of Taiwanese students chose to surrender. In recent months, several surveys within the island showed that more than 70% of young Taiwanese people do not want themselves or their families to go to war. This suggests that if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, most Taiwanese people would support surrender rather than resistance.
Second, how was the survey question designed by Professor Pan Xinxin? What does "at any cost" mean? Why conduct this survey now—could it be a political maneuver to increase defense spending by the DPP authorities? If "at any cost" means sacrificing one's life on the battlefield, how many people still have the will to resist? Or is "at any cost" simply understood as donating money, stockpiling food, or expressing support on social media platforms? Mo Shaobai, a scholar from Tamkang University, pointed out that even if such data is real, it only reflects "intentions" rather than "actions." If Taiwanese people had to go to war, few would be willing to do so.
Third, according to previous surveys, the will to resist among the Taiwanese people increases by one or two percentage points if they believe the United States will intervene militarily. However, if the United States does not provide assistance, the will to resist decreases. Why does this survey show the opposite?
Fourth, former DPP legislator Shen Fuxiong stated that only 9% of the current Taiwanese population firmly adheres to "non-independence is not acceptable," and only 3% firmly adhere to "non-unification is not acceptable." The majority are "status quo" supporters. Wang Yong, chairman of the United Front Party, said that the proportion of people truly willing to fight and die for "Taiwan independence" is less than 1%. In fact, during the colonial era, Japanese Governor General Hattori Shinppei studied the characteristics of the Taiwanese people and noted that they are "greedy for money, afraid of death, and love to hold office." Now, with the strong military power of the mainland and the fact that multiple past "Defense Ministers" have openly stated that the Taiwan military will not fight for "Taiwan independence," it is unlikely that the general public would have greater resistance will than the military personnel.
Let me end with a sentence from Lin Zhengjie, a founding elder of the DPP. He said, "The resolution of the Taiwan issue by the mainland is not a matter of capability, but a matter of the method used. If 'unification by force' is chosen, the People's Liberation Army does not need to land, but can simply 'decapitate' by using the东风 missile to destroy the headquarters of the leaders in Taiwan. In the time it takes to drink a cup of coffee, Taiwan may already have surrendered."
Original: toutiao.com/article/1859421038678026/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.