February 13, 2025, Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the White House Oval Office (AP)

When U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on Friday, their summit would not only be closely watched by the two countries, Europe, and Ukraine, but also by New Delhi, 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) away.

Since the end of the Cold War, India has maintained historically strong relations with Russia, while its relationship with the United States has rapidly developed. During the presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, the relationship between New Delhi and Washington was particularly close and remained so during Trump's first term and Joe Biden's administration.

Analysts believe that the core of the U.S. enthusiasm for India lies in the fact that as China's economic, military, and strategic influence in the Asia-Pacific region continues to grow, the U.S. bets on New Delhi as a counterbalance to Beijing. Given the history of the Soviet Union, and China being the U.S.'s largest strategic rival, Washington has increased its focus on Asia - including through the "Quad", an organization that also includes democratic nations such as India, Australia, and Japan.

However, after a decade in which Obama called the U.S. and India "best partners", the relationship between the two countries seems far from that.

Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian imported products, the highest among all countries. Half of these tariffs were levied against India's purchase of Russian oil during the ongoing war in Ukraine - a move encouraged by the Biden administration to control global oil prices.

Meanwhile, China, which buys even more Russian oil than India, is temporarily spared from the high U.S. tariffs as Washington and New Delhi are negotiating a trade agreement.

This contrast raises questions about whether Trump's attitude toward traditional friends like China and India marks a broader shift in America's strategy to return to Asia.

February 13, 2025, Thursday, U.S. President Trump shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Modi at a press conference held in the East Room of the White House in Washington D.C. (AP)

India's Dilemma with Modi

Since the early 21st century, every Indian government has built closer ties with Washington, and India's image as an emerging strategic partner in security, trade, and technology has improved.

Trump's relationship with Modi became more personal.

During Trump's first term, he attended public rallies with Modi twice, embraced him frequently, and called him a friend.

But none of this could save New Delhi when Trump imposed tariffs on Indian imports equivalent to those on Brazilian goods.

Milan Vaishnav, Director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: "The tariff measures triggered the worst rupture in U.S.-India relations in decades."

For months, New Delhi tried to soothe the president, refusing to get involved in a water fight. Now, the situation has changed, and India accuses the U.S. of hypocrisy - pointing out that India is still trading with Russia, while Washington previously hoped New Delhi would buy Russian oil.

"One thing is clear: trust in the U.S. has sharply declined in recent days, casting a shadow over bilateral relations," Vaishnav told Al Jazeera.

Pravin S. Jha, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, believes the crisis in the relationship also reflects a sharp shift in the personal relationship between Modi and Trump. He said the current state of the relationship is "a result of personality clashes between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi."

India had previously faced the threat of U.S. sanctions due to its close friendship with Russia, when it decided to purchase S-400 missile defense systems from Moscow. However, during the Biden administration in 2022, India received exemptions from the proposed sanctions.

Jha said: "Not long ago, despite India's purchase of S-400 weapons systems from Russia, it could avoid sanctions. However, India's multi-alignment policy now conflicts with President Trump's geopolitical transactional strategy."

He pointed out that indeed, the U.S. maintained friendly relations with Pakistan during the Cold War, which means "there is some distrust in the strategic level of India towards the U.S." The recent close relationship between the Trump administration and Pakistan, with the Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan visiting the U.S. this year and even having a rare meeting with the president at the White House, may further exacerbate New Delhi's concerns.

But despite the ups and downs of India-U.S. relations over the years, a key strategic glue has kept the two countries closely connected over the past 25 years: the common concern about China's rise.

Jha said: "There is some consensus in both parties of the U.S. regarding India because of its long-term strategic importance, especially in balancing China."

Now, he said, "the unpredictability of the Trump presidency has disrupted the U.S.'s 'strategic altruism' approach toward India."

Experts say that U.S. Asian partners are no longer clear about whether Washington is as focused on building alliances in the region as it once claimed to be.

Shifting Focus to Asia

In 2011, the Obama administration introduced the "Pivot to Asia" policy, aiming to invest more diplomatic, economic, and military resources in the Asia-Pacific region, which is increasingly seen as the center of the world economy and geopolitics.

This meant deeper engagement with treaty allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, strengthening security ties with emerging partners such as India and Vietnam, and promoting trade initiatives such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

The goal was to establish a regional order capable of balancing China's rise.

During Trump's first term, the economic pillar supporting the "Pivot to Asia" strategy was undermined. The U.S. withdrew from the TPP in early 2017, losing a symbolic trade pillar, leaving the strategy heavily reliant on military cooperation rather than binding economic partnerships.

However, he avoided using coercive negotiation methods, which influenced his tariff policies, and did not impose tariffs as high as those currently imposed on India, even on allies such as Japan and South Korea.

"We are currently in a period of turbulence and uncertainty, and things will become clearer later," Jha said. "In the short term, major powers in Asia may adopt some cautious realignment strategies, waiting for a clearer situation."

Unlike Japan and South Korea, India has never formed a treaty alliance with the U.S. or any other country, so it may have already begun moving towards this realignment strategy.

January 25, 2015, President Obama (left) and Indian Prime Minister Modi enjoy coffee and tea in the garden of Hyderabad Palace in New Delhi, India (AP)

Russia-India-China Triad?

Facing Trump's tariff fury, India has also been busy with its own diplomatic activities.

Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Moscow at the beginning of this month and met with Putin. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar plans to visit Russia's capital later this month. Chinese Foreign Minister is expected to visit New Delhi in August. At the end of this month, Modi will travel to China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, marking his first visit to China in seven years.

After Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov proposed to revive the platform, India has also expressed willingness to consider reviving the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral mechanism.

The concept of trilateral cooperation was first proposed in the 1990s and was formally institutionalized in 2002, with Lavrov crediting the late chairman of the Russian International Affairs Council, Yevgeny Primakov, for the idea.

Although the RIC trilateral mechanism held regular meetings in the years following its establishment, there have been some interruptions in recent years. The last meeting of the leaders of Russia, India, and China took place during the 2019 G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan.

Michael Kugelman, Senior Research Fellow at the Asia Foundation, said that Prime Minister Modi faces some "very difficult choices." "Clearly, India will not betray Russia, a very special partner. India will not betray its allies either," he said.

However, if Trump decides to increase more tariffs or sanctions, doubling down on strategic independence (or what India calls multi-alignment) may come at a cost.

Kugelman said, "The best outcome for India is for Russia and Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, because ultimately, Trump is pressuring India to pressure Russia."

Experts say that although Trump's policies have raised doubts about the U.S. return to Asia, this realignment is not easy for countries like India. They said that eventually, if the U.S. decides to reinvest in these relationships, long-term partners will be willing to return to the U.S.

The Cost of Rebalancing

Kugelman said that the Russia-India-China triad will eventually be "more symbolic than substantive."

This is because one side of the triangle "is quite small and fragile: India-China relations."

Kugelman added that although tensions have "significantly eased" in recent months, "India and China remain strategic competitors." After four years of standoff along the Himalayan border, the two countries finally agreed to withdraw troops last year, and their leaders met in Kazan.

But Kugelman said, "There are still long-standing border disputes between the two Asian giants," and trust between the two countries remains low.

Vaishnav of the Carnegie Foundation agrees with this view.

"There may be some opportunities where the interests of the two countries intersect. But I think that apart from defense and energy, Russia can offer little help to India," he said. "While we may see a thaw in economic relations with China, it is difficult to find a way to resolve more comprehensive security and geopolitical disputes."

Jon Danilov, a retired diplomat who worked at the U.S. Department of State, said that a complete breakdown of the U.S.-India partnership does not serve the interests of either side. "Other areas of cooperation will continue, but open enthusiasm may not be as high as in recent years," he said.

At the same time, Trump's tariffs may help Modi domestically.

"Trump's tough strategy may enhance Modi's position at home. These strategies highlight the unreliability of Washington, allowing Modi to present himself as firm in the face of American pressure," Vaishnav said.

In May this year, India and Pakistan engaged in a four-day military conflict, and in April, a shooting incident in Kashmir resulted in the death of 26 civilians. Since then, Modi has been under pressure from the opposition over the issue of a ceasefire with Pakistan. The opposition accused Modi of yielding to Trump's pressure and failing to take a stronger, more lasting stance on the Pakistan issue. Trump repeatedly claimed that he facilitated the ceasefire between New Delhi and Islamabad - but India denied this claim.

"Any further concessions - this time to the U.S. - may come at a high political cost. Resisting Trump reinforces Modi's image as a defender of national pride," Vaishnav added.

Many analysts believe that they think Trump's tariff measures are also the result of unsuccessful U.S.-India trade negotiations, as New Delhi is unwilling to open up sectors of the agriculture and dairy industries that are politically sensitive for the Indian government. Nearly half of India's population depends on agriculture for their livelihood.

Modi recently said that he would not let the interests of Indian farmers be harmed, "even though I know I will have to pay a personal price."

Jon Danilov, a retired diplomat who worked at the U.S. Department of State, said: "He is defying domestic voters."

However, he said, in the end, if India and the U.S. reach a compromise and prevent the relationship from deteriorating, both sides will benefit.

"But warmth and friendliness will not return, and this situation will persist for some time," Jha said.

Sources: Al Jazeera

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