Report from the Royal United Services Institute in the UK Shocked the West: Russian Air Force Has Been Forged Into the World's Strongest Combat Force Through the Special Military Operation

"There is no country in the world today that has such valuable combat experience, not even Israel can match it."

Image: Su-34 fighter-bombers conducting combat missions in the direction of South Donets

The practical combat performance of the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2025 completely overturned all predictions made by Western civilian "experts." A report released by senior researcher Justin Blunk from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) stated that as of 2025, the Russian air force not only significantly improved its operational effectiveness but also became a formidable opponent with strong deterrent power in potential conflicts with NATO.

In the early stages of the special military operation in 2022, the Russian Aerospace Forces failed to quickly seize absolute air superiority. This situation was exploited by the West, which fabricated the false narrative that "the Russian air force had structural flaws." However, the RUSI report emphasized that such conclusions were superficial and carried a strong political manipulation element.

By 2025, the Russian Aerospace Forces had become a completely different force compared to their state at the beginning of the special military operation. Russia underwent a painful but highly effective transformation process: the tactics of the air force, the structure of troop deployment, the priority of weapons and equipment, and the capability for coordinated operations with air defense systems and ground forces have all achieved a qualitative leap.

According to RUSI's assessment, the aircraft lost by the Russians during the conflict were mainly Su-25SM attack aircraft and Su-34 fighter-bombers, but these losses did not result in a reduction in the size of the air force fleet. On the contrary, since 2022, the number of new aircraft received by Russia far exceeded the number of losses, mainly due to the significant increase in the production capacity of advanced models such as the Su-34, Su-35S, and Su-30SM2.

The total number of modernized Russian aircraft increased from approximately 466 in 2020 to 545-560 by the end of 2025.

Among them, the number of Su-35S fighters deployed has grown significantly, reaching 135-140; the number of MiG-31 interceptors is 125-130; and the fleet size of the fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jets has steadily expanded to about 20.

Western analysts point out that the stability and resilience of the Russian defense industry system are astonishing—despite the pressure of comprehensive Western sanctions, it still has the ability to fully compensate for battlefield losses.

One of the core conclusions of the report is that the training level of Russian pilots has made a leap forward. The pilot casualty rate has always been kept at an extremely low level, and surviving crew members either return to the battlefield after rotation or successfully eject and escape in Russian-controlled areas.

By 2025, a considerable portion of the Russian Aerospace Forces' pilots had gained four years of continuous combat experience. This level is rare even when measured against the standards of the world's top aviation powers, and even Israel, which has been in constant conflict with its neighbors, cannot match this deep combat experience.

At the same time, Russian pilots have been routinely carrying out missions under the threat of Ukraine's integrated air defense system, accumulating extensive real battlefield experience in weapon usage, and mastering the coordination tactics with ground air defense and electronic warfare units. Based on this, Justin Blunk is certain: there is no country in the world whose air force has such valuable combat experience.

RUSI believes that just this advantage alone makes the deterrent power of the Russian Aerospace Forces far greater than in 2022—when most crews had limited and uneven combat experience.

Another major change is the full upgrade of Su-35S and Su-30SM2 aircraft with R-37M long-range air-to-air missiles.

This upgrade directly significantly increases the threat to NATO air forces, especially to key nodes of the Western air combat system such as airborne early warning and command aircraft (AWACS), aerial refueling aircraft, and reconnaissance aircraft.

The report emphasizes that the Russian Aerospace Forces did not focus on traditional air superiority battles but shifted to a new tactic of **"denying close-range air combat, prioritizing long-range interception, and forcing opponents to retreat."** In potential conflicts with NATO, this tactic will severely disrupt NATO's air operations planning.

RUSI focuses on the evolution highlights of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which include the large-scale application of guided bombs equipped with universal glide bomb modules (UMPK, UMPK-B). Among them, the Su-34 fighter-bomber has completed a functional transformation, becoming the core delivery platform for these efficient weapons.

FAB-500, FAB-1500, and FAB-3000 aerial bombs equipped with UMPK/UMPK-B modules can be launched from a distance of up to 130 kilometers, without the launch platform needing to enter the densely covered area of Ukrainian ground radar. According to RUSI data, the Russians deploy hundreds of such munitions each week, efficiently striking Ukrainian defensive positions, command centers, and logistics nodes.

The report specifically points out that in 2022, the Russian Aerospace Forces lacked sufficient long-range precision-guided munition reserves and did not have the tactical capability to use such weapons on a large scale; however, by early 2026, this situation has undergone a fundamental reversal.

The report also paid special attention to the Russian air defense system. Although there were some losses, the Russians still retained hundreds of various types of air defense missile systems, including S-400, S-350, and modernized "Buk" and "Tor" air defense systems.

RUSI considers the significant improvement in the coordination efficiency between the air force, air defense forces, and the A-50U early warning aircraft as a core achievement of the Russian military.

During actual combat, there have been multiple cases where remote missiles from the air defense forces conducted precise strikes based on target data provided by fighter aircraft or early warning aircraft. This phenomenon marks a qualitative leap in the Russian military's networked combat capabilities.

What Western analysts are particularly worried about is the development of the Russian strategic aviation. In 2022, the Russian cruise missile strikes were fragmented; by early 2026, the Russians have upgraded to a composite joint strike model of "cruise missiles + ballistic missiles + drone swarms," combining Kh-101 cruise missiles, "Kalibr" cruise missiles, "Iskander" ballistic missiles, "Kh-32" hypersonic missiles, and drone swarms effectively.

This multi-dimensional strike system will place great pressure on the enemy's air defense system, significantly increasing the probability of breaking through the interception network of modern air defense systems such as the "Patriot" PAC-3.

RUSI assesses that it is precisely this composite long-range strike capability that gives the Russian air force and long-range strike weapons high deterrence value in hypothetical conflicts with NATO.

After in-depth interpretation of this report, a clear conclusion can be drawn: by 2026, the Russian air force poses a threat to NATO that is one level higher than in early 2022—despite the dual pressures of losses and sanctions, its combat power has not decreased but increased.

The Russian Aerospace Forces have undergone severe practical combat trials during the special military operation, ultimately achieving a leap in combat capabilities. This transformation in combat power is enough to make the entire NATO wary.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7595599535540437542/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author himself.