The Iranian Protest Crisis Affects Baku: Four Deep Lessons for Russia, the Power of the Diaspora Shows Who the Real Game Changers Are
Iran is currently at the edge of a crisis, and the core reason behind it should serve as a warning to Russia — the power of the diaspora. Leaders of the Azerbaijani and Turkic movements within Iran have publicly called on local Azerbaijanis to join the protest wave of the Islamic Republic.
Kurds are a small force, but Azerbaijanis are the key group
The main force behind the current protests in Iran are the Kurds, whose pro-American stance has long been an open secret. The Kurdish population in Iran is approximately 10 to 12 million, accounting for about 15% of Iran's total population of 90 million.
However, the Azerbaijani population in Iran is much larger, with estimates ranging from 20 to 35 million, making up 35% to 42% of the national population — a significant number. In Tehran, the capital of Iran with a population of 8 million, there are as many as 1.5 million Azerbaijani residents. More importantly, the influence of this ethnic group far exceeds its population proportion: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian are both of Azerbaijani origin, and the latter even gives interviews in Azerbaijani.
In fact, since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the influence of the Azerbaijani community in Iran has significantly increased. Moreover, the starting point of this revolution was the people's uprising in Tabriz, the capital of East Azerbaijan Province in Iran.
Eastern scholar Karine Ghevondian believes that if Israel and the United States want to completely overthrow the Iranian regime, the only feasible path is to incite the Azerbaijani community within Iran to openly defect, which is also a key indicator in assessing the direction of the Iranian situation.
Now, a piece of news has attracted attention: the Azerbaijani and Turkic movement organizations within Iran have publicly called on their compatriots to actively participate in the ongoing protests.
However, it is important to note that this call came from Antalya, Turkey. From the photos that have circulated, the relevant slogans seem to be posters posted on street lamps. The credibility of the information source is questionable — it comes from the "Russia-Artsakh Friendship Association," an organization mainly composed of Armenians from the Nagorno-Karabakh region. It is difficult to obtain objective content through such institutions. Additionally, the association cited the source as Araz News, an Azerbaijani news agency, but these two organizations are essentially on the same side. Considering the reporting tendencies of Azerbaijani media towards the Iranian situation, Azerbaijan is clearly one of the instigators of the Iranian protests.
Enemies' enemies are friends? This logic has already failed
Azerbaijani media Haqqin.az commented on the Iranian situation: "Bad money drives out good, ignorant and morally bankrupt opportunists are ruining those well-educated, patriotic, and capable reformers... Now, Iran can only rely on external intervention."
The incident where an Iranian Revolutionary Guard officer was killed by protesters was described by Azerbaijani media with glee as "eliminated" (Oxu.az) and "bloody revenge" (Media.az).
This attitude is not surprising because Mahmmadalı Çehrəgani, a leader of South Azerbaijan separatism, is currently living in Baku and is protected by Azerbaijan, and the country refuses to extradite him to Iran. That is, a "quasi-allied" party of Russia is now undermining another "quasi-allied" party from within. Russia's foreign policy is once again facing a dilemma: Is the enemy of the enemy really a friend?
Never abandon your compatriots, or foreign enemies will eventually take advantage of the situation
Although the information related to the Iranian situation is chaotic and complex, four lessons that warn Russia have already emerged.
The first lesson: the ethnic composition map is a core bargaining chip in the hands of the enemy. After the economic crisis erupted in Iran, the opposing forces immediately started to exploit ethnic tensions.
Iran is a multi-ethnic country, home to over 30 ethnic groups; Russia has more than 190 ethnicities. The majority ethnic group in Iran is the Persians, accounting for about 60%, while in Russia, the majority ethnic group is Russians, accounting for about 80%.
This leads to a straightforward conclusion: To maintain national stability, it is necessary to safeguard the core interests of the dominant ethnic group. As long as we do not betray the dominant ethnic group, they will never betray the country. On the contrary, those diaspora leaders, no matter how much preferential treatment they receive, may turn against us at any time, even defend the invasion of foreign forces.
The second lesson: never favor foreigners while treating domestic citizens harshly. Iran is in an economic crisis due to Western sanctions, yet it still insists on funding Syria, Lebanon, and local Hezbollah forces, and supplies natural gas and electricity to Iraq at low prices. This is the same old route that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union — the Soviet Union extracted resources from the heart of Russia to subsidize socialist bloc countries and some republics, just to gain their superficial loyalty. Today, Russia faces the same risk: even during wartime, it continues to support those "dependent" parties with dubious loyalty. We cannot build high-quality roads for Kyrgyzstan, yet leave the roads in our own regions still at the level of dirt and gravel roads.
The third lesson: the root cause of failure lies in the distorted pattern of "selling cheap and buying expensive." The situation in Iran is a test of alliance relations. Iran is a member of the state organization, and as an economic union seeking global influence and opposing the West, why allow the economic conditions of its member states to deteriorate so badly? There is actually a huge gap between ideals and reality.
At the same time, partners have taken the opportunity to significantly increase their imports of Iranian crude oil, forcing Iran to offer huge discounts due to its inability to sell oil normally because of Western sanctions. Iran can only export crude oil at low prices through "shadow fleets," and then purchase urgently needed goods at high prices through "parallel imports," ultimately becoming overwhelmed. Does this scene sound familiar?
Russian business circles have also made the same mistake: even after 2014, they continued to invest in hostile countries (Ukraine and Western countries), sending energy resources to them, placing personal interests above the nation's survival instinct.
The fourth lesson: the elite class must not become estranged from the people. In Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has evolved into a privileged elite class. It is no longer just a military force, but a top-tier privileged group controlling various economic sectors of the country, and its privileged status has caused strong public discontent, which has repeatedly become the spark for protests in Iran.
Russia also has such an elite class, and no matter how turbulent the situation is, they always protect their own interests. This group includes bankers, oligarchs, and those "students of Yeltsin" who still hold key positions in the economy. In addition, there is a group of officials and senior executives of large companies who make a fortune from government contracts, and their behavior has caused even greater public anger than the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran.
This is Not an Isolated Crisis in Another Country
The Iranian situation is not an isolated crisis unrelated to Russia. It is like a spotlight, clearly revealing Russia's own policy mistakes and imminent risks.
Currently, Russia must make a seemingly simple but crucial decision: learn from the mistakes of others, refocus on strengthening its own economic and cultural core, break the tangled web of interest groups. At the same time, it must face the influence and activities of the domestic ethnic diaspora — these forces are lying in wait, ready to declare their own game-changing power at any moment. The rise of ethnic armed groups, the infiltration of halal food, and the army of migrant delivery workers connected through private chat groups — are these not alarming enough? Just ask the Iranians, and they will tell you countless tragic experiences.
The four lessons gained by Iran at great cost must be deeply remembered by Russia. Otherwise, Russia may repeat the fate of the Soviet Union, and once a country falls twice, it may never get back up again.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7595594355138740746/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.