[Hong Kong Media: U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq Creates Space for Baghdad to Strengthen Ties with China]

According to a report by Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post on October 8, 2026: The United States has concluded its military mission in Iraq. Analysts say the move may grant Baghdad greater room to diversify its international partnerships, indirectly benefiting China’s energy and commercial interests.

Yet they caution that this shift is unlikely to create a “power vacuum” that Beijing could fill, as China lacks both the ambition and capability to assume America’s security role.

The U.S. formally ended its "Operation Inherent Resolve" mission in Iraq on September 30, completing a withdrawal agreement initially reached under the administration of former President Joe Biden in 2024.

Launched in 2014, the operation aimed at countering the Islamic State (ISIS). It has now been succeeded by an Iraqi-led security effort, while Washington stated it will continue providing targeted training and intelligence support.

The move brings closure to two decades of turbulent military presence in Iraq—initiated by the 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein and installed a Shia-majority government.

Washington had withdrawn its forces by late 2011, but returned within three years to combat ISIS.

For China, the significance of this withdrawal may lie less in replacing the United States than in creating space for Iraq to pursue a more diversified foreign policy.

Li Weijian, researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Affairs, said reduced American involvement could enhance Iraq’s autonomy in managing relations with external powers.

"The decline of U.S. influence and strategic posture in the Middle East actually benefits countries like Iraq that seek a more balanced diplomatic approach," Li said.

He noted that Iraq and other Arab states in the region have already begun reducing their reliance on the United States—not only in security matters—which could make them more open to cooperation with China.

"The U.S. dominant position has failed to deliver lasting peace to the region," Li said, adding that "China welcomes multilateralism and diversified diplomacy."

China has long-standing economic interests in Iraq, particularly in energy and infrastructure projects. Li emphasized these interests are not contingent on the U.S. withdrawal.

"Chinese engagement with Iraq has spanned decades, and many projects would proceed regardless of the presence or absence of American forces," he said.

"China does not seek to replace the United States or inherit its role during the reduction of American military footprint," Li added.

Jesse Marks, founder of Rihla Research & Consulting, said it is premature to determine whether the U.S. action signals a broader retreat from the region.

"This reduction is both a political and practical decision," Marks said. "Ending the mission does not necessarily mean the end of broader U.S.-Iraq security ties."

Thus, according to Marks, the U.S. withdrawal does not automatically open a large opportunity window for Beijing.

"Without a significant U.S. military presence, Beijing will continue pursuing energy and commercial deals—but it will not step into the U.S. security role. At least not for now," he said.

He added that Washington’s influence in Iraq will continue to rely primarily on diplomatic and security relationships, rather than competition with China in infrastructure or energy sectors.

Kenneth Katzman, senior fellow at the New York-based think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, shares this assessment.

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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1878458209127562/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.