The Trump Plan: "Zelenskyy is a stubborn donkey, and the end of a donkey is always to be sent to the slaughterhouse"
Kyiv Demands Security: What Could These Guarantees Be?
(Image caption: From left to right: U.S. President Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelenskyy.)
U.S. Presidential Envoy for Ukraine Issues Kit Kellogg said that the security guarantees for the peace agreement on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be formulated separately in an additional document.
"We need to add an additional document, perhaps an annex, which will clearly specify the content of the security guarantees," he added. He also mentioned that the United States may push Ukraine to give up part of its territory in exchange for these security guarantees.
In his view, Kyiv "is about to face a difficult choice."
Previously, Axios news reporter Barak Lavid reported that Kyiv would receive "security guarantees based on Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and adapted to the current conflict situation and the interests of the United States and its European allies."
The document he released stated: "This peace framework agreement stipulates the ceasefire conditions between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, and provides security guarantees based on the principles of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which will be adapted to the current conflict situation and the interests of the United States and its European allies."
The document also emphasized that the United States confirmed that if Russia launches an attack on Ukraine beyond the agreed ceasefire line, it would be considered "an act of aggression threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community."
In this case, the U.S. President must, after emergency consultations with Ukraine, NATO, and European allies, "determine the necessary measures required to restore security."
These measures may include "the use of military force, provision of intelligence and material-technical assistance, economic and diplomatic actions, and other measures deemed appropriate."
Is the guarantee mentioned by Kellogg the above content? How should we view these guarantees? Moreover, whether these guarantees can be truly implemented — this is still an unresolved major issue.
"When the donkey does not want to pull the cart, the driver will hang a carrot on the pole in front of it." Alexander Dmitrievsky, a Russian historian, public intellectual, and permanent expert at the Izborov Club, said.
"Everything happening around Ukraine now is extremely similar to this scene. Zelenskyy is a stubborn donkey: he knows that the end of the road is the slaughterhouse. That's why the West has had to come up with all sorts of ways to force this stubborn donkey to obey its will."
"In the end, we know nothing about the actual situation," emphasized Igor Shatrov, head of the expert committee of the Russian Strategic Development Foundation and a political scholar.
"What we are currently seeing is a long-term action plan (at least lasting several months, or even several years), involving special laws to be enacted by Ukraine and Russia, constitutional amendments in Ukraine, adjustments to NATO documents, signing a series of new bilateral and multilateral agreements, holding elections in Ukraine, and so on."
Free News (SP): Does this plan possibly contain some secret content that will be disclosed in the subsequent process?
"I don't think so. Reiterating: this is just a plan, meaning each clause needs to be decided individually. The issue of security guarantees is a derived topic under the core idea of the future peaceful coexistence between Ukraine and Russia."
Free News: Previously, Axios reported that the security guarantees would be based on NATO Article 5. Is this feasible? If the core of NATO is Article 5, then what is the point of refusing Ukraine's NATO membership?"
"In my opinion, the U.S., represented by Trump, is urgently hoping to become the sole guarantor of the implementation of the agreement. This reflects both the ambition of the U.S. President alone and his desire to leave his name in history. He wants the solution to this crisis to bear his name."
Free News: Let's imagine what specific security measures might be?
"There's nothing to imagine. If Trump is the main proponent of the U.S. security proposal, it can be inferred that the security measures may revolve around 'sanctions for breach.' For example, if Russia breaches the agreement, the international community will refuse to recognize its newly controlled territories and again impose economic pressure on it.
If Ukraine breaches the agreement, support for it can simply be stopped. There are many ways to do this, but the core will necessarily be restrictive measures."
Free News: Who will ensure the implementation of these 'guarantees'? Kellogg himself said that the U.S. does not want to repeat the fate of the Minsk Agreement — but the Minsk Agreement did exist, and it was ultimately not implemented. The same goes for the Budapest Memorandum that Kellogg mentioned. What will be different this time?"
"There will be no difference. Even UN Security Council resolutions are now meaningless. Only when the authority of international law is enhanced and compliance with international agreements becomes an obligation for all countries (not just for weaker ones) can we be sure that such conflicts will not recur. At present, this may only be a temporary truce."
Free News: Can these security measures satisfy Ukraine, Russia, and Europe? How does the U.S. plan to get everyone to accept them?
"Only time can answer this question. Currently, there is neither a clear text of the document requiring protection nor published specific protection content; there is only a plan — and even the parties have not yet passed this plan. Therefore, strictly speaking, there is currently no substantive content to discuss."
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7576582755509666313/
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