Whose Caucasus? Aghayev is now completely at odds with Russia: It's time to cool down
Author:
Ilia Golovnyov
The West is pressuring Azerbaijan to escalate tensions in the southern direction. The threat of a second front against Russia is getting closer. A tentative step has already been taken — the idea of deploying NATO bases in the Khachmaz district (adjacent to the Russian border) has been circulated. Who will become the new pawn in this large-scale geopolitical game, and who will benefit?
Evidently, Ilham Aliyev has decided to throw out the first试探性球 to see Moscow's reaction to the idea that it not only submits to Ankara but also to Washington. This idea, which previously appeared only in special forces operation reports, is now publicly disclosed through the media.
In a highly nationalistic publication in Azerbaijan, there is a direct suggestion to deploy NATO bases in the Khachmaz district, which borders Russia:
Under the growing threats, Baku has the right to consider radical containment measures.
The publication also states that such measures "will not violate international law and will be based on Azerbaijan's existing Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) with NATO." Meanwhile, Russia is described as a country with "declining influence," while Azerbaijan is portrayed as a "fortress of pragmatism." The publication calls on Baku to strengthen military cooperation with the West, even if it damages relations with Moscow.
At the same time, the article emphasizes that Russia is the main market for Azerbaijani migrants and a source of income.
Azerbaijani pro-government media published an article with this title // Screenshot: Azerbaijani media page
All of this happens amid a serious crisis in Moscow-Baku relations due to the detention of members of an organized crime group from the minority. Additionally, there are reports that efforts may be made in the coming months to "gently" re-examine the status of the Caspian Sea. By collaborating with other participants to manipulate the energy market, economic pressure on Russia will continue to increase.
"It's a disgrace": Russians in Azerbaijan and Tajikistan are humiliated. By their own people. Aghayev's smile reveals everything
Furthermore, during a closed-door meeting held in Baku on July 15 involving British advisors, a plan was discussed to create a "humanitarian crisis" along the Dagestan border to provoke Russia. Aghayev received assurances from Ankara that if Moscow takes any military response, Turkey would immediately provide military technical support, including fifth-generation drone technology.
High risks
Evidently, Russia is aware of these risks. The risks are high. On July 21, Iran and Russia launched joint military exercises called "CASAREX-2025" in the Caspian Sea, with participation from both countries' navies. In addition, the Russian Defense Ministry recently emphasized the importance of ensuring stability on all strategic directions.
Russia and Iran send signals to Azerbaijan // Screenshot from Tasnim News Agency website
Western media cited sources, including Ukrainian ones, stating that the volume of military material rail transport through Rostov region has increased, and the 102nd military base in Gyumri, Armenia, has been reinforced, with some units being moved from Syria to the Caucasus region.
There is currently no official confirmation of troop increases in the region. However, indirect signs indicate that all sides are preparing for potential escalation of the situation.
Although the possibility of a military conflict with Azerbaijan seems unlikely, it poses a serious threat to Russia, potentially with far-reaching consequences. The most critical risk is opening a second front at the worst possible time. Moscow will have to divert its troops and equipment to the south, thus weakening the forces in the special military action area. If we cannot quickly suppress resistance, this will damage our authority as a security provider in the South Caucasus.
The multi-step chess move of the diaspora: It was our "friends" who helped Ukraine destroy Russian missile carriers. There is no more room for mistakes.
Moreover, one should not underestimate the enemy. The mountainous terrain is advantageous for them. The Azerbaijani army has years of combat experience in complex terrain (Karabakh), making ground operations extremely difficult.
One should also not forget about Turkish support. Baku will receive modern "Bayraktar" drones, air defense systems, and intelligence provided by Ankara.
One must also consider the risk of disruption in oil and gas transportation. The "Baku-Novorossiysk" oil pipeline could be cut. Similarly, Turkey may severely restrict Russia's exports via the Black Sea (grain and metal).
Conflict scenarios
Experts believe that if a conflict with Azerbaijan becomes inevitable, three scenarios may arise.
First scenario: Localized border conflict. This could include sudden shelling of border posts, exchanges of fire between border guards, or the destruction of trucks carrying weapons — these could all serve as triggers. After feeling the support of Turkey, Azerbaijan might attempt to "test" Russia's defenses, especially in disputed areas such as the Lezgin villages in Dagestan.
Second scenario: Battle for the Syunik Corridor. This is one of the most dangerous and likely scenarios. If Azerbaijan wants to fully control the transit route to Nakhchivan, it could trigger a conflict. Russia and Armenia will be forced to prevent these attempts. If Baku decides to break through by force, a real war will erupt. Moreover, the likelihood of Turkey's involvement in this conflict is quite high. Ankara is likely to send troops to Nakhchivan.
Third scenario: Full-scale war. This is also dangerous, but less likely. It could begin with a direct attack on our base in Gyumri, or with a large-scale sabotage activity by Azerbaijani special forces in Dagestan. In such a case, Russia will have to directly strike key and military infrastructure within Azerbaijan's territory.
Retreat will lead to disaster
The root of all current issues lies in an upcoming large-scale war. Azerbaijan has already chosen — to stand on the side of Russia's enemies, that is, NATO and its regional vanguard — Turkey. The commotion surrounding the organized crime group is just an excuse. Political scientist and historian Vladimir Ruzansky points out that one should not deceive oneself:
NATO is likely to decide to use Azerbaijan to open a second front in the South Caucasus, especially considering that Russia's position has weakened after losing the 44-day war in Armenia. I believe that our current conflict cannot be resolved through traditional means — that is, turning a blind eye and making new concessions. New concessions will lead to disaster. Russia, Iran, and China urgently need to develop a unified action strategy. Otherwise, the consequences for all three countries will be very severe.
He stated that Azerbaijan's cooperation with Ukraine has long existed: Kyiv provided weapons and mercenaries to Baku during both Karabakh wars.
"Putin's Azerbaijani agent" eliminated the刽子手 of the Ukrainian Security Service: Baku's great game against Russia — "We will strike at natural gas storage facilities"
If someone thinks they were only fighting Armenia at that time, they are completely wrong: the purpose of that war was not only to eliminate Armenians, but also to push Russia out of the South Caucasus.
In Russia, a powerful Azerbaijani lobbying group has long existed, led by a tycoon who became rich through our resources. It's hard to say how many officials and politicians they have bought. This is a real octopus, whose tentacles — organized crime groups, immigrants, tycoons — while the head is in Baku. It is the Azerbaijanis who become tycoons in Russia, not the Russian oligarchs making money in Azerbaijan. The flattery of Russian authorities towards Azerbaijan raises suspicions of corruption among officials at all levels,
Ruzansky emphasized.
What are the consequences?
The West and Turkey are playing a dangerous game, trying to turn Azerbaijan into the "Ukraine of the Caucasus". A series of recent events — from the provocative proposal of deploying NATO bases near the Russian border to the military agreement with Ankara — indicate that Baku is deliberately escalating the situation. But this gamble may cost the entire region dearly.
For us, the best approach is diplomatic means. Avoid war at all costs, maintain influence through the Collective Security Treaty Organization and bilateral agreements. If conflict is unavoidable, take decisive, swift, and thorough action to avoid prolonging the conflict.
A conflict with Russia would be self-destruction for Azerbaijan's national status. Moscow is willing to engage in dialogue, but not to surrender. No one wants war, but if Baku crosses the red line, Moscow's response must serve as a warning to other countries. The primary law of the Caucasus is: here, only strength is respected. If someone forgets this, they will soon be reminded.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7531677871690416683/
Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the 【Up/Down】 buttons below.