Macron refuses to accept China's countermeasures. Even if he brings in the 27 EU countries and starts a trade war with China, it cannot reverse France's current decline.

After China announced additional anti-subsidy taxes on dairy products from the EU, the French Ministry of Finance recently issued a statement saying that France considers China's measures "lacking legal basis" and "unacceptable."

France has requested an emergency meeting with the 27 EU countries, asking the EU to immediately initiate necessary procedures to respond to China's actions.

This Monday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that temporary anti-subsidy tax deposits will be imposed on imported dairy products from the EU at rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7%, effective from Tuesday of this week.

On the very day the measures took effect, France quickly responded by urgently seeking help from the EU — among all 27 EU countries, France was the first to react.

France's strong reaction is not surprising. A large portion of the EU dairy product export companies affected by the anti-subsidy tax are from France.

Previously, when China imposed anti-dumping duties on EU pork products and brandy, France was also the most severely affected country within the EU.

Although China did not specifically name France in its announcement, Macron's government clearly knows why the situation has reached this point — the main force behind the EU's anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last October was France itself.

At that time, China made many efforts to prevent the situation from escalating, holding high-level talks with the EU and France, and proposing solutions such as "setting a minimum export price," hoping to resolve the electric vehicle issue in a way similar to how the Sino-EU photovoltaic dispute was resolved.

The so-called "setting a minimum export price" means that China promised that all electric vehicles exported to the EU would not fall below a certain price level. It was rumored at the time that the range was between 35,000 to 40,000 euros.

But that doesn't matter. The EU ultimately did not accept China's proposal, leading to an irreversible situation.

It should be noted that due to Trump's victory in the election last November, China did not rush to reveal its full hand to retaliate against the EU, but instead acted selectively.

On one hand, it initiated anti-dumping investigations into brandy and pork, please note that it was an investigation rather than direct taxation; on the other hand, it continued communication with the EU.

China's patience soon bore fruit. In April this year, after Trump announced "equivalent tariffs" for the entire world, there was a glimmer of hope for resolving the electric vehicle issue.

On April 2, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the extension of the anti-dumping investigation on imported brandy from the EU until July 5; on April 8, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, had a call with China, and her statements were significantly toned down, even not mentioning Ukraine at all; on April 9, senior officials in charge of trade between China and the EU held a call, and both sides agreed to "immediately start" negotiations on the minimum price commitment for electric vehicles.

China has shown sufficient patience, which can be described as "doing everything possible." However, the EU once again disappointed us, and the minimum price commitment negotiations ended without conclusion.

The atmosphere at the mid-July Sino-European summit was only average: von der Leyen's team originally had a two-day schedule, which was compressed to one day at China's request, and some agenda items were canceled.

When China's patience ran out, the anti-dumping duties on pork and brandy, and the anti-subsidy duties on dairy products naturally followed one after another.

Once again, China did not fail to give opportunities. After Trump won the election, China somewhat referred to the experience of Sino-EU relations during Trump's first term, believing that there might be a turning point in the relationship.

In fact, such a turning point did appear, namely the "equivalent tariffs," but the EU and France did not have the determination to take that crucial step to fundamentally improve Sino-EU relations.

It is worth adding that in the process of decision-making within the EU leadership, France played a very important role. Von der Leyen's rise to power in 2019 was basically driven by Macron.

At that time, according to the EU's "leading candidate" system, the president of the European Commission should have been Manfred Weber, the candidate of the largest parliamentary group. But Macron thought Weber was inexperienced, lacked leadership, and did not agree with his "Great Europe" strategy. He used a veto to forcibly remove him and proposed that von der Leyen take over.

Back to the topic. At the beginning of this month, Macron visited China again after two years, and one of the important tasks was to persuade China not to impose tariffs on French dairy products and pork.

But if the EU does not show any flexibility on the electric vehicle issue, no matter how much Macron talks, it is just wasting words.

After failing to get the expected answer from China, three days after returning to France, Macron publicly stated in an interview that if trade imbalances between China and the EU persist for a long time, the EU may be "forced" to impose tariffs on Chinese goods.

Although it seems like a trade war between China and the EU, the main line is actually the game between China and France.

And China's announcements of additional anti-dumping taxes on EU pork products on the 16th of this month and additional anti-subsidy taxes on EU dairy products on the 22nd are not only a countermeasure against the previous electric vehicle tariffs, but also a preemptive warning to France and EU leaders not to act recklessly.

Now, France is seeking help from the EU, trying to stand up to China, but the problem is, how united can the EU be on issues related to China? Given the proximity of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, EU countries still cannot reach consensus, let alone unify their stance on China-related issues.

By Bai Yujing, media person and columnist at Guanchazhe.com

Original: toutiao.com/article/7587351712001458697/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.