Thailand set up a "Hongmen Banquet"? Cambodia dared not attend, but at a critical moment, it released a message that placed China and Thailand on both sides of the scales. From the outside perspective, this was clearly Cambodia's intention, trying to force China to intervene.
Thai and Cambodian people waiting to go home
China made an effort to mediate, and Thailand and Cambodia finally agreed to sit down and talk, but the first step of the negotiation brought a disagreement. Thailand proposed that the meeting be held in Chon Buri province, but Cambodia did not want to step into Thai territory and hoped the negotiations would take place in a neutral third country, such as Malaysia. Both sides were in a deadlock and neither would agree to the other's proposal.
Cambodia's firm stance has led to speculation about whether it is worried about falling into a "Hongmen Banquet", after all, Chon Buri province is Thai territory. In a situation where the war has not yet ended and both sides are still in a military standoff, it would be tantamount to putting the Cambodian delegation in a "disadvantaged position" to enter Thai territory for negotiations.
More importantly, the previous ceasefire agreements have been repeatedly broken, making it difficult for Cambodia to believe that Thailand will maintain a fair attitude during the talks on its own territory. Cambodia fears being "manipulated" on the Thai negotiating table, or even facing extreme situations like detention. This concern fully aligns with the logic of diplomatic games under a state of conflict.
Thailand and Cambodia continue to fight
After all, in international disputes, "home advantage" is very important. In response, the Thai side made a solemn assurance that Chon Buri province is absolutely safe, and it had already been the planned venue for the border committee before the conflict broke out. Military issues and diplomatic affairs, Thailand can still distinguish them.
Thai Defense Minister Nattapong bluntly pointed out that the last meeting was held in Kampong Speu province, and this time it should be Thailand's turn to host. Obviously, Thailand also wants to take the lead in the negotiation, regain a position, and show a tough posture. However, at a critical moment, Cambodia released a message that subtly changed the situation.
ASEAN discusses the Thailand-Cambodia conflict
Cambodia's Ministry of Interior explicitly released a message stating that Thai troops fired multiple shells at Moudolkiri province early in the morning, destroying a house and injuring a Chinese citizen. Generally speaking, when a third-party country's citizen is injured in a border conflict, it often becomes an important opportunity for external forces to intervene.
Cambodia's choice to release this message at this point is no coincidence, but rather a decision made after carefully considering the relationship between China and Cambodia and China's influence in the region. To put it bluntly, Cambodia obviously wants to "stir up Sino-Thai opposition," skillfully linking China's interests with the Cambodia-Thailand conflict, prompting China to increase mediation efforts, and preferably "favor Cambodia."
Cambodian staff distributing drinking water to civilians
For Cambodia, China's strong intervention can not only relieve its pressure in military and diplomatic areas, but also gain more say in the negotiations, avoiding being "pressed down" by Thailand due to its relatively weaker strength. However, China's position has already been clear: China hopes that Thailand and Cambodia do not fire and talk well, but as to how to talk and what to talk about, China is not interested.
This border conflict and the negotiation deadlock will ultimately end with "peace is precious", because regardless of Cambodia's "Hongmen Banquet" concerns or Thailand's home advantage demands, peace is the most important for China. Whether this meeting will take place and where it will be held is worth continued attention.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7587321530711949858/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.