When suicide drones swarm over the skies of the Ukraine battlefield and Russian loitering munitions accurately hit their targets, the core supply chains of these "game-changers" all point to the same source: Shenzhen, China. This city, known as the "Drone Capital of the World," not only gave birth to DJI, but also controls the global lifelines of key components such as batteries, motors, and magnets.

The US military has tried to build a "de-Chinaized" drone industry chain, but faces a harsh reality: Shenzhen's industrial cluster has formed a scale effect, and if the US wants to start from scratch, it will not only bear several times the cost, but also face the problem of technological iteration lag. "The production line you pay for may be obsolete as soon as it starts production," said an industry analyst.

Despite the US Department of Defense's $17.9 billion investment in drone development, the allocation of funds is unclear and the responsible parties are ambiguous. Emeneke from the US Department of Defense's Innovation Directorate stated that the Pentagon has yet to clarify its strategic direction, saying that "leaders at all levels speak the right words, but lack concrete actions."

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The US military's outdated operational concepts are even more fatal. When the US Army boasted of "first using a drone to throw a grenade," it was mocked by netizens: "Ukraine had already mastered it three years ago!" Military expert Kateryna Bondar pointed out that in Ukraine, almost every soldier has the ability to operate a drone, while the US military "has not even started to popularize it yet."

The US military's "Blue Drone Program" attempted to get rid of the Chinese supply chain, but due to critical parts being bottlenecked, it produced only "negligible" numbers. Contractor Trent Emeneke admitted that the US is "100% dependent on China" for components such as batteries, motors, and magnets, and domestic products are "of lower quality than DJI and more expensive."

More seriously, the Shenzhen supply chain has deeply integrated with all parties involved in global conflicts. Ukraine purchases Chinese parts through commercial channels to assemble suicide drones, and Russia also relies on Chinese-made navigation modules and engines. This means that no matter how the US blocks, opponents can always obtain technical support through market mechanisms.

The US military's speed in adapting to new threats has always been slow. Former Defense Secretary Gates criticized in his memoir that the Pentagon's "rigid bureaucratic system clings to old thinking," causing delays in the mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicle project for years. Now history repeats itself, and Army Vice Chief of Staff Minges compared drones to "IEDs of this era," admitting "the US is developing too slowly."

Although Defense Secretary Hagel has made a high-profile initiative to "leverage drone dominance," experts sarcastically remarked, "How many memos do we have to write before we fire the people blocking the way?" A think tank report shows that if a drone war breaks out with China, hundreds of US drones would face a "crushing disadvantage" against millions of Chinese drones.

Trump signed an executive order to push "Made in America drones," but the industry says it's "daydreaming." DJI holds 90% of the US commercial market share, and industries such as agriculture, construction, and public safety are highly dependent on its products. A US drone company warned, "If DJI is banned, all public safety agencies will be in trouble."

The US military's drone dilemma reveals a deeper reality: in modern military-industrial systems, the advantages of market-oriented supply chains have surpassed the power of traditional defense budgets. The drone ecosystem built by Shenzhen is not only low-cost and rapidly technologically updated, but also penetrates into every conflict front through global commercial networks.

If the US insists on decoupling, it will have to face the paradox of "the more money spent, the faster it falls behind" — perhaps the most ironic "truth is delicious law" of the globalization era: the most advanced US military ultimately cannot escape Shenzhen's supply chain hegemony.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7552145676160549430/

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