Reference News Network September 10 report: The U.S. "Washington Post" website published an article titled "The U.S. Economy May Enter a Recession Before the Golden Age Promised by Trump," written by David Lynch. The translation is as follows:

Weak job growth. Strong inflation. Economic outlook is deteriorating. Headwinds are coming from Washington.

Whether you blame President Donald Trump's unconventional tariffs and immigration policies, or the slow-moving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the U.S. government has not brought any benefits to the economy these days.

The annual economic growth rate in the last three months of 2024 was 2.4%. The employment situation was strong: Employers added 323,000 jobs in December last year.

However, recently, the news has not been so pleasant. On September 5, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs in August this year, meaning that the labor market has basically stagnated since Trump launched his historic "Liberation Day" tariff campaign in April. Some people on Wall Street are now considering the possibility of an economic recession.

Nile Dutta, head of economic research at the Resilience Macroeconomics Institute based in New York, said: "The probability is close to 50%, even more. The reasons for the economic slowdown are quite convincing."

Jason Furman, an advisor to former U.S. President Barack Obama, posted on X social media platform that, apart from during periods of economic recession, the scale of hiring relative to the size of the economy has not been so weak in over 60 years.

Trump quickly pointed the finger at the Federal Reserve. He posted on "Truth Social" saying: "Jerome 'Too Late' Powell should have already cut interest rates. As usual, he is 'too late'."

Trump has been attacking the U.S. central bank and its leader all year long, repeatedly stating that interest rates should be cut by a full three percentage points. Private sector economists rarely (if ever) agree with this view.

Trump hopes lower interest rates will reduce mortgage costs and trigger a rebound in the stagnant real estate market. The inventory of unsold homes on the market has increased by nearly 50% compared to when the Fed last cut interest rates in December 2024.

In August, Powell hinted at possible upcoming rate cuts. During his speech at the annual central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, he said, "Downside risks to employment are rising," implying that the Fed would shift its focus from fighting inflation to boosting the job market.

Economists at Goldman Sachs told their clients that they expect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee to cut interest rates in the next three meetings (September, October, and December). Barclays Bank analysts also raised their forecast of the number of rate cuts from two to three.

It is certain that Trump warned voters earlier this year that they should prepare for a painful transition while he restructures the economy for a manufacturing-rich "golden age." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen also said in March that the economy must go through a "detox period" to get rid of excessive reliance on government work.

Some Wall Street banks expect that, at least in the short term, the U.S. economy will perform more modestly. Morgan Stanley expects a growth rate of 1.5% in the third quarter.

Economists say the current weakness in the labor market can be traced back to several of Trump's policies. In recent months, the tariff policy has sometimes been implemented and sometimes postponed, making it difficult for companies to plan new investments or hiring.

To encourage domestic manufacturing, Trump imposed the highest tariffs since the 1930s. However, since February this year, factory employment has decreased by 41,000. Other trade-related industries, including mining, wholesale, and oil and gas extraction, have also seen a decrease in employment in recent months.

Dean Baker, co-founder and economist at the Center for Economic Policy Research, said: "We haven't even seen the beginning of a recovery in manufacturing related to tariffs. You wouldn't expect to see it overnight. But it's heading in the wrong direction."

Trump's measures against illegal immigrants, including a workplace raid at a Hyundai plant in Georgia on the 5th, are reducing the availability of foreign-born workers, which is also putting pressure on hiring. Data from the Pew Research Center shows that the population of foreign-born individuals in the United States decreased by more than 1 million in the first six months of this year.

According to Barclays Bank, Trump's stricter immigration policies, along with the impact of an aging society, are causing a monthly reduction of more than 100,000 potential jobs.

The total number of federal government employees also decreased by 97,000 this year, as Trump readily accepted various measures by the U.S. Government Efficiency Office to reduce public institutions.

State government employment numbers decreased by 12,000 in August and may continue to face pressure. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" seeks to transfer the financial responsibility of social programs such as Medicaid to already financially strained state governments.

Dutta said: "Even before Trump's fiscal legislation was enacted, many states were already facing budget constraints. It was already bad. Now it's getting worse." (Translated by Wang Qun)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7548413793107034643/

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