Nimitz Strike Group is currently operating in the same waters as the Shandong aircraft carrier task force, with their straight-line distance probably only hundreds of kilometers apart, both within the strike radius of their carrier-based aircraft. At this critical juncture, the U.S. military announced that it would arrange for live-fire bombing exercises by carrier-based aircraft.

Recently, the joint "Shoulder to Shoulder-2025" exercise organized by the U.S. and Philippine militaries is being held intensively on Luzon Island and its surrounding waters in the Philippines.

Meanwhile, China's Navy Shandong aircraft carrier task force is continuously active in the waters east of the Philippines, engaging in a standoff with the Nimitz Strike Group near Leyte Bay.

[Opening Ceremony of U.S.-Philippine Shoulder to Shoulder Exercise]

Although there is currently no evidence indicating that the pilots of the Shandong aircraft carrier and the Nimitz Strike Group have started to "engage," considering that China publicly released images of previous engagements between Chinese and U.S. carrier-based aircraft, it shows that pilots on both sides have experience sparring. It wouldn't be surprising if they took advantage of this opportunity to spar more often.

This is enough to make the Pentagon realize that the Shandong aircraft carrier's deployment to the Western Pacific is intended to disrupt the U.S.-Philippine exercises. In response, the U.S. military chose to deploy F/A-18C/D Hornets to flex their muscles.

According to reports from the U.S. Naval Institute News Network, Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 323 will participate in live-fire target practice during the "Shoulder to Shoulder-2025" exercise, targeting a retired World War II-era escort ship.

[U.S. Naval Institute News Reports on Live-Fire Exercises]

The aircraft participating in this drill include not only the Marines' Hornet fighters but also the U.S. Pacific Air Force's F-16 fighters.

In terms of fleet composition, the U.S. military clearly intends to put on a display of ship-bombing in front of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Although in past exercises, the U.S. and the Philippines have also organized several live-fire drills multiple times. However, those drills were mostly for demonstration purposes, mainly showcasing U.S. military strength, without much consideration for practical combat needs.

A typical example was during the Shoulder to Shoulder-2023 exercise, when U.S. forces stationed in the Philippines sent a HIMARS rocket launcher to strike a naval target.

HIMARS itself has no anti-ship capability and can only attack fixed targets. The entire live-fire drill was just a show staged by the U.S. to boost the Philippines' confidence against China.

As a result, the Philippine side forgot to anchor the scrapped ship used as a target, causing the target ship to drift away from its original position due to ocean currents. All six rockets fired by HIMARS missed their mark, embarrassing the U.S. military in front of the world.

This year's live-fire drill differs significantly in that it marks the first time that the U.S. Marine Corps' carrier-based aircraft are participating in the "Shoulder to Shoulder" series of exercises, previously handled solely by the Pacific Air Force's F-16s.

[U.S. Forces in the Philippines' HIMARS Rocket Launcher]

Don't let the fact that the Marines and Navy are two different branches fool you; in reality, the Marines bought the "Hornet" and now upgrade to F-35C specifically for carrier-based operations. They are part of the carrier air wing.

If military conflict breaks out around the Philippines between China and the U.S., the main aerial threat faced by the PLA surface vessels would be the carrier-based aircraft of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, rather than the Air Force's land-based fighters like the F-16, F-15, or F-35A.

The reason is simple: Air Force fighters are primarily used for air superiority and ground support. When it comes to attacking ships, the Navy and Marine Corps' carrier-based aircraft are naturally more specialized.

Don't be fooled by the fact that the "Hornet" is nearing obsolescence; the "Super Hornet" remains the backbone of the U.S. Navy's carrier-based aircraft. Wherever there is an American aircraft carrier, these troublesome "big bugs" are sure to follow.

If a maritime conflict breaks out between China and the U.S., American carriers will certainly not be absent, and the PLA's aircraft carriers and destroyers will inevitably face off against these "big bugs."

[Nimitz Carrier with F/A-18 Fighters Sailing]

Currently, neither the Philippines nor the U.S. have disclosed the location of the live-fire drill. However, regardless of whether it takes place in the Philippine Sea or the South China Sea, the movements of the U.S. and Philippine forces cannot escape the notice of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA).

As mentioned earlier, the Shandong aircraft carrier task force is currently active in the Philippine Sea. If the U.S. and the Philippines choose to conduct the drill here, they will be closely monitored by the Shandong task force. Conversely, if the drill takes place in the South China Sea, the PLA stationed on the islands will be the ones observing.

[Japanese Self-Defense Forces Photographed the Shandong Aircraft Carrier in the Western Pacific]

The standoff between the U.S. and Chinese aircraft carriers in the Philippine Sea, combined with the U.S. military's plan to bomb ships, is not good news. This marks the transfer of the arena for confrontation between the two militaries to the waters near the Philippines, rather than the Taiwan Strait as before.

The U.S. military is already using live-fire drills to intimidate the PLA. We might find opportunities to respond accordingly, and through such exchanges, we can at least scare the Philippines quite a bit.

At this point, the Philippines must consider a question: Where would the battlefield be if conflict erupts between China and the U.S.?

The South China Sea is too small for the U.S. Navy; the aircraft carrier strike group cannot fully operate there. To fight unrestrictedly with the PLA, the U.S. would need to select the Western Pacific.

[Today's PLA Has the Ability to Establish an Advantage Over the U.S. Military]

On the other side, the U.S. military's deployment in Luzon is another thorn the PLA must remove. Otherwise, the carrier battle group could be at risk of attacks from shore-based missiles.

With all this considered, the answer becomes clear: the Philippines and its surrounding waters are the main battleground. Regardless of who wins the conflict, the Philippines will undoubtedly be the biggest loser.

The PLA may not have initially envisioned confronting the U.S. military in the Philippines. It was the pro-American faction led by President Marcos Jr. that, disregarding regional security demands, actively invited the U.S. to counter China, inviting this "blessing" upon themselves.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497576142276051471/

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