Air Power New Situation: J-10C vs. Mirage and Its Market Ripple

May 10, 2025 | By Altaf Moti

Recent developments in the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan have brought significant progress: The Pakistan Air Force successfully downed Indian Air Force aircraft, at least including one French-made Dassault Mirage "Rafale" fighter. Reports also indicate that China's Chengdu J-10C fighter played a key role in these aerial engagements. Meanwhile, financial markets responded to these dynamics, with Dassault Aviation's stock price declining while the share price of the J-10C manufacturer surged. These dynamics may mark a critical node for assessing the modern air combat capabilities and geopolitical impacts of defense technology.

According to the Pakistani military, among the five aircraft shot down, three were "Rafales," as well as two Russian-designed MiG-29s and Su-30s. Although the Indian Air Force has not officially confirmed the loss of its aircraft, multiple reliable sources citing U.S. officials and French intelligence agencies confirm that Pakistan at least downed one "Rafale." Reuters quoted U.S. officials stating that it was China's J-10C fighters that launched air-to-air missiles to carry out these downings, and a French intelligence official also confirmed this loss to CNN. This event might become the first known combat setback for the highly praised "Rafale" fighter jets, renowned for their advanced multi-role capabilities and sophisticated technology. Such a defeat, especially at the hands of a Chinese-origin aircraft, inevitably raises questions about its "invincible" myth and combat effectiveness.

The stock market movements resonate with the narrative of J-10C "success" and "Rafale" setbacks. Reports indicate that after news of the "Rafale" losses emerged, Dassault Aviation's stock price fell, likely due to investor concerns over the jet's combat performance and future order prospects. In contrast, the share prices of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC), which manufactures the J-10C and JF-17 fighters used by Pakistan, significantly increased. The boost in investor confidence can be seen as market recognition of the J-10C's performance, particularly when it is perceived to outperform Western design competitors in actual combat.

The J-10C vs. Rafale incident could have multiple far-reaching implications for global perceptions of air power. The vulnerability of the "Rafale," a symbol of advanced Western aviation technology, to Chinese-made aircraft challenges long-held notions of Western air superiority. The practical success of the J-10C also serves as strong evidence of China's rapidly advancing aerospace industry, potentially enhancing the attractiveness of its military equipment on the international market. Countries evaluating aircraft procurement may reconsider their choices; if Chinese aircraft are seen as capable of competing with or even surpassing Western designs in certain scenarios, they will receive more consideration. The shift in the balance of air power in South Asia may trigger broader geopolitical effects, influencing military strategies and alliance relations, and further deepen the close defense partnership between China and Pakistan. Additionally, as both fourth-plus-generation fighters, the decisive results of the J-10C vs. "Rafale" confrontation will prompt a deep analysis of their technical strengths and application efficiencies.

The high level of international attention stems from several factors. Most convincingly, the practical victory itself. The success against the Western star fighter "Rafale" provides empirical proof that cannot be replicated by simulated demonstrations and marketing materials. Chinese military equipment has long been characterized by cost-effectiveness compared to its Western counterparts. If the J-10C demonstrates comparable or superior performance in specific scenarios, it will undoubtedly be highly attractive to countries with limited budgets. The performance of the J-10C also highlights the rapid progress of China's aerospace industry, helping to dispel long-standing doubts about the quality and complexity of Chinese-made military technology. For some countries, tilting toward Chinese defense procurement can serve broader geopolitical goals, strengthening diplomatic and strategic ties. The reported combat effectiveness of the J-10C, combined with advanced Chinese air-to-air missiles like the PL-15 and supported by Chinese early warning aircraft, showcases the integrated capabilities of China's defense industrial system.

It is worth noting that interest in the Middle East is rising. Some countries in the region, traditionally reliant on Western air power, are reassessing their options based on the performance of the J-10C. The combination of advanced features and potential cost-effectiveness makes Chinese aircraft an appealing option for air force modernization and diversification of defense partnerships. The downing of the "Rafale" and the international attention on the J-10C are driving changes in the global fighter jet market landscape: the emergence of cost-effective competitors like the J-10C could intensify competition and challenge the dominant positions of traditional Western and Russian manufacturers; countries may lean more toward considering Chinese aircraft, promoting diversification of global fighter fleets; Western manufacturers will face pressure to highlight unique product advantages and adjust pricing; the practical confirmation of the J-10C will help China expand its weapon exports and consolidate its position as a major global arms supplier.

Backed by reports from U.S. officials and French intelligence sources, the news of Pakistan's J-10C downing the "Rafale" significantly escalated public discourse on the air power balance between India and Pakistan. Despite the full picture still unfolding, the potential impact on the Western fighter jets' "advantage myth" and the rise of China's aerospace industry cannot be ignored. The market reaction of Dassault Aviation's stock price decline and Chengdu Aircraft Corporation's stock price increase further underscores the importance of these events in shaping global perceptions of military technology.

In the future, tracking official statements, detailed reports, and independent analyses will be crucial for clarifying the full picture and long-term impacts. The victory of the J-10C over the "Rafale" may become a turning point in modern air combat narratives and the global defense industrial competition landscape. As events unfold, the world is closely watching, attempting to interpret the true significance of this aerial confrontation.

India-Pakistan Conflict Rekindles

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1831731602035786/

Disclaimer: This article solely represents the views of the author.