[By Guancha Network Columnist Chen Feng]

The May 7 aerial battle between India and Pakistan was the first time that advanced military technology from China had defeated advanced Western military technology. This phenomenon is common in civilian product sectors, but it was unprecedented in the confrontation of advanced weaponry, holding extraordinary significance and marking a historic moment since the Opium War.

This may be the first large-scale air battle since the 1982 Bekaa Valley Air Battle according to Pakistani sources. It is reported that 125 fighter jets engaged in fierce combat for over an hour, with the maximum engagement distance exceeding 160 kilometers. For comparison, during the Gulf War, the Yugoslav War, and the Ukrainian War, there were only sporadic air battles, while the anti-terrorism war did not involve any air combat.

Now that the dust has settled, the J-10C has reportedly shot down a "Rafale." The Pakistani side officially announced the shooting down of three "Rafales," along with one Su-30MKI, one MiG-29, and one "Heron" drone. India has yet to fully admit this, but the French side confirmed that at least one "Rafale" (serial number BS-001) was shot down. Although it remains unclear whether all these achievements were made by the J-10C or partly by the J-10C, the victory of the J-10C over the "Rafale" goes far beyond technical and tactical triumphs.

Following the terrorist attack in Kashmir on April 22, Pakistan denied involvement, while India vowed retaliation, which was put into action on May 7. A large number of missiles were launched toward nine targets in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and within Pakistan itself. Pakistani fighters took off to intercept, but Indian aircraft did not cross the border; they exchanged fire across the boundary line.

On the early morning of May 7 local time, India carried out Operation Vermilion targeting nine locations in Pakistan.

The Indian aircraft firing missiles into Pakistan flew toward the border direction, soon potentially crossing the border, posing the greatest threat. In a passive defensive posture, the Pakistani air force, being numerically inferior, could only intercept the most threatening target first, ignoring other targets within range but not immediately threatening, to conserve ammunition and avoid gaps in air defense. This was a cautious tactical decision, beyond reproach.

However, this was a tactical decision made when both sides were still relatively far apart. To avoid crossing the border, causing unintentional escalation, and to prevent overextending to become a target for mid-range missiles, both sides' fighters maintained a certain distance from the border line. However, the PL-15 medium-range missile's range far exceeds that of the "Mica" and R-77, allowing Pakistani fighters to comfortably shadow Indian fighters.

Pakistan's one-sided aerial victory seems to have left India stunned, resorting to a large-scale aerial exercise near the India-Pakistan border as a face-saving move. Before the conflict, such exercises might have had deterrent effects; however, after both sides had effectively crossed the war threshold, such exercises had no deterrent effect. India was merely sending a message: "I haven't used my full strength yet; don't get too cocky." Pakistan's message was much simpler: "If you don't agree, let's fight!"

In the future, there will likely be mutual harassment involving drones and border artillery exchanges between India and Pakistan, but the conflict has already entered the "garbage time."

Pakistan's aerial warfare victory has played a role in stopping the war. India neither wants to escalate to a full-scale ground war nor can continue fighting in the air. When the Pakistani fighters enjoyed almost absolute beyond-visual-range superiority and the Indian fighters dared not cross the border, India's air force, despite its numerical advantage, was powerless.

The purpose of weapons is to destroy the enemy, but stopping wars and restoring peace are the highest pursuits of weapons. The J-10C achieved such a pursuit.

However, the disadvantage of Pakistan having fewer J-10Cs is quietly becoming apparent. Without more specific information, it can be speculated that Pakistan's limited J-10Cs are mainly concentrated along the Lahore-Anantapur axis. Lahore is the capital of Punjab Province and also the second-largest city in Pakistan (the largest is Karachi), with the capital Islamabad right behind. Anantapur is a major town on the border between Haryana and Punjab (both provinces have a Punjab region) in India and is also the main base for "Rafale" fighters. PL-15 may need to prioritize use for the J-10C, and indeed, the J-10C has lived up to expectations, achieving impressive results.

On March 21, Pakistan Air Force's J-10C fighters rehearsed before the National Day parade. Agence France-Presse.

"JF-17" Block 3 can launch PL-15, but it may still need to use PL-12/SD-10 as the main weapon. Both Indian and Pakistani fighters deliberately maintained sufficient distance from the border, resulting in fewer victories elsewhere, with only one Su-30MKI and one MiG-29, plus one "Heron" drone. However, in the subsequent Indian retaliatory drone attacks, 26 drones shot down by Pakistan, aside from those hit by air defense missiles, may include many hit by PL-12/SD-10 or even short-range missiles.

Under the basic condition of being at a disadvantage, Pakistan's restrained stance in the war is evidenced by not launching large-scale retaliatory attacks on Indian targets. In the current situation where Pakistan enjoys an overwhelming advantage in the air, it is easy to maintain a high profile, as long as India does not escalate, the conflict may shift to "garbage time." Such "garbage time" is fortunate for the world, after all, a nuclear war between two countries with population levels in the billions would be an unimaginable humanitarian disaster for the world.

The Indo-Pakistani air battle could become the best example of a war that stops war. Of course, this is conditional, and the condition is that both sides have the willingness to limit the war to a limited war and are unwilling to escalate indefinitely.

This also determines that the Indo-Pakistani air battle is both the largest air battle in the past few decades and has great guiding significance, yet it is a special air battle under specific conditions, and should not be overinterpreted.

In the past few decades, there have been numerous sporadic air battles, and some people use these as guidance for future air combat, which is prone to mislead. This is like drawing lessons for large-scale operations from special forces case studies, making it easy to underestimate the quality changes caused by quantity changes. In large-scale air battles, command, coordination, and support are entirely different issues. The selective interception by Pakistani fighters in the Indo-Pakistani air battle is an example. Such tactical decisions do not exist in sporadic air battles.

On the other hand, the "no-cross-border principle" observed by both sides in the Indo-Pakistani air battle has greatly restricted tactical choices. If Indian fighters could freely cross borders for strikes and Pakistani fighters could freely cross borders for pursuit, there might be more close-combat cases. The current situation of exchanging fire across the border line is essentially Indian fighters using their weaknesses to attack the strengths of Pakistani fighters. Perhaps the Indian Air Force did not realize the gap was so large before the war. But if Indian fighters allowed cross-border operations and close-range engagements, their numerical advantage might have been utilized. This is the role of tactics. The volunteers' "charge forward and engage in close combat" against the superior firepower of the US and South Korean forces is a similar application of tactics.

However, as the largest air battle in recent decades, all countries will inevitably learn from both sides of the Indo-Pakistani conflict, learning from combat experience.

The Indian Air Force has many joint training exercises with the United States and European countries, with official and unofficial exchanges being frequent, and their tactical techniques are deeply influenced by the U.S. and Europe. The惨败of the Indian Air Force will undoubtedly force the U.S. and Europe to reevaluate Chinese military technology. The export version of China's PL-15 is labeled with a range of 145 kilometers, but the Pakistani side clearly stated that the maximum engagement distance exceeded 160 kilometers. This kind of "unethical" behavior in Chinese military industry is rare in the world; generally, the practice is to overstate rather than understate.

The maximum range of air-to-air missiles can only be achieved under ideal conditions, requiring both sides to approach each other at high speed and altitude, avoiding intense maneuvers. Even without overstating, the maximum range is usually unusable due to the missile's end-stage capability limitations. However, the PL-15 remains effective at supersonic ranges, which is quite revolutionary. This will also be one of the contents reevaluated by the world.

Although the Chinese Air Force is strong, it lacks practical combat experience. The actual combat of the Chinese Air Force technology is self-evident. Countries interested in purchasing Chinese fighters are more likely to flock to gain firsthand knowledge of usage experience.

The Indian Air Force may also reconsider its base system. Perhaps due to army thinking, or misreading World War II experience, the Indian Air Force emphasizes forward deployment. The Anantpur Air Base is about 150 kilometers from the Pakistani border, and Batinda is only 60 kilometers away. Similarly, on the Sino-Indian border, Tezpur is just 120 kilometers from the border, and Leh is less than 100 kilometers away.

The advantage of forward deployment is timely response, enabling immediate arrival at the border battlefield. It also provides enough range for deep strikes into enemy territory upon departure. However, the downside is vulnerability to enemy air-to-ground strikes. In the age of early warning aircraft and beyond-visual-range air combat, runway movements may be detected immediately, and takeoffs may be shot down upon lift-off. It is unclear how many instances in the Indo-Pakistani air battle involved detection upon runway movement or shoot-down upon takeoff, but such forward deployment models may be reconsidered.

Stepping back from the current Indo-Pakistani conflict and the technological and tactical aspects of the air battle, the victory of the J-10C over the "Rafale" will have turning-point-level impacts on both India and Pakistan.

Pakistan was once an important ally of the United States. In 1960, when an American U-2 reconnaissance plane was shot down over the Soviet Union, pilot Powers was captured, marking a highlight moment of the Cold War. Powers' U-2 took off from Norway, and if it followed the normal flight path, it would have ended at Peshawar, Pakistan. Later, U.S.-Pakistan relations cooled significantly due to Pakistan's nuclear tests. During the anti-terrorism war era, the U.S. resumed aid to Pakistan, and there was widespread sentiment among the Pakistani government and public that "we can finally embrace America again," either out of admiration for the U.S. or a sense of equality with China.

After the J-10C shot down the "Rafale," Pakistan's admiration for China may have shifted from half-belief to wholehearted acceptance. It is rumored that the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister called the Chinese ambassador at 4 a.m. If Pakistan requests urgent replenishment of PL-15 from China, it will come as no surprise, considering the significant consumption during combat.

It is unknown whether the victory over the "Rafale" will motivate Pakistan to increase purchases of J-10Cs, but Pakistan will certainly exert immense pressure on China to accelerate the export of the J-31.

Photographs of the wreckage of the aircraft (right) and the Indian Air Force's "Rafale" fighter jet with serial number "BS 001" - Social Media

One must say that today's Chinese aviation technology owes a debt to the Soviet Union and Russia. During the First Five-Year Plan, China truly established its aviation industry with Soviet assistance, and the introduction of the Su-27 fighter and AL-31 turbofan marked another leap forward. However, today's Chinese aviation technology has surpassed its origins, and the J-10C even helped fulfill the wishes of Russian fighters.

In the Korean War and Vietnam War, Soviet fighters fought American fighters fiercely, but there was no clear advantage. In subsequent wars, Soviet fighters were consistently outperformed by American fighters. This was due to reasons in air combat systems and pilot skills, but Soviet fighters never truly aimed to "show their strength." The "Rafale" is not an American fighter, but it represents advanced Western standards and has "shot down" many American fighters in various exercises, including the currently top-tier F-22.

After the Indo-Pakistani air battle, Pakistan may accelerate its systematic shift toward Chinese military technology. Modern military equipment is no longer a "collection of scattered weapons" but an organic integrated system. There are no reports yet on the role of early warning aircraft in this Indo-Pakistani air battle, but it is said that China helped solve the data link issue between Sweden's "Ericsson Eye" early warning aircraft and Pakistani fighters. The domestically produced ZDK-03 naturally presents no problems. Smooth data links play a crucial role in air combat, which is unsurprising.

In contrast, India's "Phalcon" early warning aircraft has not completed integration with the data links of the "Rafale" and Su-30MKI, reportedly relying on voice commands, resulting in significantly lower efficiency and precision. Introducing more advanced American or European early warning aircraft may not solve the problem either, as India's "United Nations of weapons" naturally suffers from "language barriers," making it difficult to bridge the communication gap.

India's problems go beyond early warning aircraft. Currently, the "Rafale" is India's most advanced fighter, with an additional order of 26 naval versions planned for use on aircraft carriers. It now appears that, at best, the "Rafale" might match the J-10C, but the J-10C is already considered "bottom-tier" among China's new generation of air power. The J-16 and J-15T have stronger engines, radars, and armaments, while the J-20 and J-35 represent a completely different level of dominance, and sixth-generation fighters are simply unfair advantages.

Even if India is willing to spend heavily to counter China, what should it buy? The "Rafale" is no longer viable. F-16 Block 70 or F-18E/F Block 3 are unnecessary, as they are at the same level. The F-35A is being peddled by the U.S., but the "digital backdoor" issue is too big, and its M1.6 flight performance is fundamentally insufficient. To surpass the most advanced Chinese fighters, the U.S. is at a loss, and Europe has stopped even thinking about it. What is India thinking?

China is not without older fighters, but if India spends heavily on new fighters, it would be equivalent to racing against those who are already ahead, buying mid-tier or even low-tier fighters from others. What sense does that make?

What is even more disheartening for India is that the starting points of China and India were roughly the same. In the 1960s and 1970s, while China was still chanting "Long live the J-6," India not only had the MiG-21 dominating but also had its "national" Marut jet fighter. However, when China's north-south sixth-generation fighters became targets for the U.S. air and navy to catch up with, the "Rafale," which India spent heavily on, was swept away by China's export-standard J-10C. Where is India's military development heading?

India has not neglected developing its own fighters. Leaving aside the "Marut," the "Tejas," which has been mired in controversy for a long time, and the AMCA stuck in PowerPoint presentations, India has nothing that can rival China's peers, not even reliable allies like the U.S. or Europe.

India yearns to rise and believes it deserves to rise. However, India's rise is only for the purpose of equal footing with the U.S. and Europe, needing only to surpass China. India may need to rethink its reliance on the U.S. and Europe to surpass China; military affairs are just one branch of India's grand strategy.

As Britain's "model colony," India's Anglo-American complex runs deep, and India's rise is also pinned on Britain and America. However, the global tide has shifted: Britain has long declined and cannot even dominate Europe. Whether in economics, science and technology, or politics and military affairs, America is gradually facing a reality where it no longer holds an advantage over China—India needs to face this reality.

On China's rise, every time it gains momentum, external forces opportunistically intervene. But China never gives up; every setback exposes more shortcomings, so China humbly addresses these deficiencies. Step by step, China's shortcomings decrease, and its strengths increase, transforming from one of the world's manufacturing powerhouses into the sole manufacturing superpower, with technology rapidly advancing through interaction with demand.

In the First Opium War, Britain's big ships and heavy guns broke open China's doors. In the Second Opium War, the Anglo-French allied forces burned down the Summer Palace, plunging China into 150 years of humiliation. China learned from its failures and others' successes, and continues to learn tirelessly today.

But China has never forgotten to think while learning. The purpose of learning is to walk our own path better, not to follow others'. Everyone is unique, every country is unique; following always leads to lagging behind, while striving leads to surpassing.

It is not wrong for India to want to surpass China, but blindly copying openness and trade-first strategies, and being overly reliant on finding crutches from the U.S. and Europe, is heading in the wrong direction. India needs to remember: China accomplished many great things, none of which were easy. There is no shortcut to rising.

China and India are both the most populous countries in the world and the largest developing countries. The victory of the J-10C over the "Rafale" is a historical moment for both China and India.

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Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7502619491323445812/

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