[Military & Weapon Subsection] Author: Lele

On April 27, the "Reference News" cited a Reuters report stating that as Trump is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia next month, the latter plans to purchase weapons worth $100 billion from the U.S., but the F-35A fighter jets, which are most desired by the Saudi Air Force, are still not included in the deal — currently, the desire of Saudi Arabia to buy the J-35E should have reached an all-time high.

▲$100 billion is indeed a frightening number.

Because the U.S. government prohibits the disclosure of transaction details, all participating agencies, including several suppliers, have refused to comment. Reuters has only obtained scattered information through anonymous sources: one, specific projects will be signed when Trump visits Saudi Arabia in May, and Qatar and the UAE also have their own agreements; two, top U.S. arms companies such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics are all involved and will send executives to accompany Trump's team; three, Trump may request Saudi Arabia to restrict trade with China and stop purchasing Chinese weapons. The only detail related to the transaction content is that Lockheed Martin will provide C-130s as well as unnamed missiles and radars, while General Dynamics will sell MQ-9B drones worth $20 billion.

▲The C-130 has indeed been proven over long-term use.

It can be said that many people remember this American-made drone because it has repeatedly fallen into the hands of the Houthi armed forces in Yemen — just last week, 3 were shot down, bringing the total number of shootdowns to over 20. Moreover, India purchased 31 MQ-9B drones last year for $3.4 billion, with a unit price exceeding the outrageous figure of the J-20A, which left a deep impression on the outside world. However, the unit price for Saudi Arabia’s purchase of MQ-9B will definitely not be at this level. After all, Qatar bought 8 MQ-9B drones in March this year, spending a total of $1.96 billion. Based on this ratio, Saudi Arabia's $20 billion could buy 82 drones, barely enough for the Houthis to fight for 7 months.

▲The fact that one drone costs $245 million is really impressive.

And if we look further ahead, this has become the norm. In 2017, during Trump's first term, Saudi Arabia even bought weapons worth $11 billion (this was also the time when Saudi Arabia first proposed buying the F-35). In 2010, Obama's visit to Saudi Arabia also secured a $6 billion arms deal. Biden's exception is because Congress prohibited the U.S. from providing offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in 2021, and the ban will not be lifted until the end of his term in 2024. From past experiences, the U.S. is not completely forcing sales; there is still room for negotiation on prices. For example, the four littoral combat ships purchased by Saudi Arabia in 2017 originally cost $11.2 billion but were eventually negotiated down to $6 billion — although this alone would be enough to buy 16 054AEs.

▲Not being able to buy the F-35 is very frustrating for Saudi Arabia.

In the past, it was always heard that the U.S. forced other countries to "pay protection money" through its military hegemony, which seemed vague. Now there are vivid examples, making it clear. Of course, some of this is intentional manipulation. For instance, the order for the four littoral combat ships actually started negotiations in 2015 and was deliberately arranged to be signed together with other arms deals when Trump visited Saudi Arabia, creating a large number. After deeply feeling that "performance is not the most important factor in arms purchases," it becomes clear that the rumored "12 052DE orders" have no possibility of being implemented, but the J-35E is different.

▲The U.S. Navy's procurement unit price for littoral combat ships is more than $600 million.

Unless the U.S. Navy loses its dominance overnight, Saudi Arabia's naval procurement cannot exceed the strength of imported U.S. weapons. Although the Saudi Air Force also faces this issue, the scale of fighters far exceeds that of warships, leaving some room for maneuver — as an air force equipped with nearly 500 fighters, Saudi Arabia's future will inevitably remain primarily reliant on U.S.-made fighters. However, even if only one-tenth of the orders are given to the J-35E to ensure that the force is not entirely controlled by the U.S., it would be a significant step forward for AVIC.

▲The J-35 is about to compete with the F-35.

The U.S. has consistently refused to grant Arab countries permission to purchase F-35A jets, and the intent behind this is quite clear. This time, Saudi Arabia plans to purchase $100 billion worth of weapons, basically covering most of its U.S. arms procurement projects over the next four years. Since the F-35A is still not included, the mature J-35E will have a real chance to compete with the F-35A on Saudi soil in three years' time.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498190656989561371/

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