On February 16, Japanese media TBS reported that Japan has made breakthroughs in deep-sea rare earth development in the waters around the Iwo Jima Island. Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato could not hide his excitement, claiming that Japan no longer has to worry about rare earths, and that deep-sea rare earths would be sufficient for 800 years.
She said, "We have finally succeeded! From now on, Japan will no longer have to worry about rare earths!"
The remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato regarding the successful collection of rare earth mud were full of enthusiasm, and she placed great hopes in it. However, according to multiple sources, this technological breakthrough is still far from truly "no longer worrying about rare earths."
Takahashi Hayato's repeated statements on this issue,
its political intent is clear. She not only views this as a solution to domestic resource issues, but also plans to present it as a "gift" during her visit to the United States in March, inviting American companies to jointly participate in the development and promote economic security cooperation between Japan and the U.S., thereby deeply binding the U.S.
Can Japan really "no longer worry about rare earths"?
Although there is much celebration at the political level, from an objective industrial and technical perspective, this success is more like a laboratory victory, and faces many almost insurmountable challenges before large-scale commercial application:
According to professional analysis
The mining site is located in the deep sea nearly 6,000 meters underwater, with extremely harsh working conditions. The current mining is only a successful experiment, and the official experiment of collecting 350 tons per day is planned to start in February 2027. To scale up from hundreds of tons to thousands of tons with commercial value, it will take a long time. Japan lags behind international advanced levels in rare earth separation technology, and it will be difficult to establish a complete industry chain in a short period of time.
At the same time, the cost of mining is high, and economically it is not feasible: the cost of deep-sea mining is the biggest "roadblock." According to estimates, even if the technology is mature, the mining cost will be several times or even tens of times higher than the market price of Chinese rare earth products. Such high costs will make Japan's related industries completely lose their price advantage in global competition.
Therefore, Takahashi Hayato's statements are more based on political considerations and publicity of phased scientific and technological achievements. Japan's current reliance on Chinese rare earths remains as high as 58% to 70%.
Industry analysts believe that Japan's deep-sea mining plan is unlikely to shake the global rare earth supply pattern in the short term, and it is more like a costly and long-term "gamble" that Japan is making in response to China's export restrictions to seek supply chain security.
As the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded, similar reports in Japan have been ongoing for many years, but the realization of industrialization is still a long way off,
Original: toutiao.com/article/1857368156833792/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.