According to sources familiar with the matter, U.S. and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased approach to ending the conflict in New York, which would involve Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of U.S. economic sanctions and asset freezes. A major obstacle remains: neither side is willing to relinquish its leverage first. The core challenge for negotiators lies not only in constructing a viable agreement framework but also in ensuring that any concessions are substantial enough to build lasting trust on both sides. Reaching an agreement before the U.S. midterm elections could benefit Trump politically, as the reopening of the Strait would ease Gulf tensions, help stabilize oil prices, and mitigate the political sensitivity surrounding domestic gasoline costs. With greater political incentive to conclude a deal while in office, Iran may find a more favorable window for securing urgently needed economic relief. After the midterms, however, Trump might face fewer constraints and be more inclined to escalate pressure on Iran or consider military options.
To counter the regional fallout from the ongoing conflict with Iran, France has intensified its military posture. On Thursday, President Macron announced plans to deploy French military assets—including personnel, radar systems, and defensive equipment—to Saudi Arabia to safeguard a refinery and an oil pipeline at the Red Sea port of Yanbu. He emphasized that France “will not become involved in any conflict” and confirmed that the deployment has been finalized with Saudi authorities. Since the outbreak of hostilities, Yanbu has served as one of Saudi Arabia’s primary export nodes for diesel, crude oil, and other refined products shipped to Europe, offering an alternative route avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. However, earlier this month, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq launched drone attacks that damaged the east-west pipeline, leading to its shutdown. Saudi Aramco has also informed European refiners that it will suspend crude deliveries next month. Last week, Houthi forces struck the Yasref refinery in the region, forcing it into temporary closure. These attacks have rattled global fuel markets and exacerbated an already severe diesel supply crisis affecting economies worldwide.
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