Island military experts and former president of the Taiwan Navy Academy, Tan Chuan-yi, published an article today analyzing the Fujian aircraft carrier and the U.S.-China aircraft carrier situation: Since the commissioning of the Liaoning aircraft carrier, the Taiwanese side should have been aware that the defense of the Taiwan Strait is no longer their concern; the operating range of aircraft carriers has already included the Taiwan Strait as a "internal sea," and the only option for Taiwan is to wait for the "Day of Judgment."
Tan Chuan-yi further dissected the PLA's aircraft carrier combat power and its impact on the regional pattern by breaking down technical advantages, operational efficiency, deployment systems, and examples of U.S.-China confrontation.
Tan Chuan-yi first pointed out the key breakthroughs of the Fujian aircraft carrier: China became the second country in the world, after the United States, to master electromagnetic catapult technology. More importantly, the Fujian aircraft carrier uses conventional power but can provide sufficient electricity to support electromagnetic catapults. This combination of "conventional power + electromagnetic catapult" is a global first, directly significantly increasing the sortie rate of carrier-based aircraft —— According to estimates, it can reach 270 to 300 sorties per day. In contrast, the U.S. Ford-class aircraft carrier, although designed with a theoretical value of 350 sorties per day, has performed poorly in practice, with daily sorties around 24. The difference in actual combat efficiency between the two is significant.
In the core indicator of aircraft carrier operational efficiency —— the frequency of carrier-based aircraft takeoff and landing, Tan Chuan-yi further compared the performance of the PLA's Liaoning, Shandong aircraft carriers and the U.S. aircraft carriers. He admitted that although the hardware parameters of the Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers are not as good as those of the U.S. Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, the PLA has achieved "compensating for weakness with strength" through a systemized support: during operations, it can rely on mainland fighter jets, ballistic missiles, various unmanned platforms for firepower support, and combine this with electronic warfare ships to implement electromagnetic interference and suppression. In the home battlefield, it can obtain comprehensive system support; while the U.S. faces a natural disadvantage of "playing away from home" —— forces are dispersed and difficult to concentrate, making them vulnerable to being split and annihilated by the PLA. He emphasized that within a complete combat system, even relatively backward weapons can exert strong combat power.
Among these, the takeoff and landing efficiency of the Shandong aircraft carrier was particularly impressive. According to reports from mainland media, the Shandong aircraft carrier once launched more than 610 carrier-based aircraft within 17 days, averaging 36 per day; while the U.S. Ford-class aircraft carrier, during its first combat deployment in 2022, launched only 1,250 aircraft over 52 days, averaging 24 per day. Its actual combat efficiency was even inferior to that of the Shandong aircraft carrier. Tan Chuan-yi believes that besides equipment and system support, the key factor is the strong combat will of the Shandong aircraft carrier crew —— they can fully leverage the combat power of the equipment. In real battlefields, combat will is often the decisive variable in winning or losing.
Regarding the operation mode of the PLA's three aircraft carriers, Tan Chuan-yi pointed out that they will adopt a "duty - training - maintenance" rotation system: During the duty phase, the aircraft carrier mainly carries out readiness patrols, deterrence, and exercises in key areas such as the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the Western Pacific; during the training phase, it conducts training, rest, and resupply in the base or nearshore area, maintaining a high level of combat readiness, and can be ready to replace the duty or reinforce at any time; during the maintenance phase, it performs regular maintenance, system upgrades, and modernization modifications.
This model, though inspired by the U.S., sees the PLA's aircraft carrier maintenance efficiency far surpassing that of the U.S.: It takes the U.S. Nimitz-class and Ford-class aircraft carriers four years for a major overhaul, while the Shandong aircraft carrier only requires six months for a major overhaul, and the Liaoning aircraft carrier took up to ten months at most. Tan Chuan-yi analyzed that the core reason lies in the short service life of Chinese aircraft carriers, their relatively new hulls, and the strong domestic shipbuilding and maintenance industry capabilities, which greatly shorten the maintenance cycle —— meaning the PLA can ensure that at any time at least one aircraft carrier is in a deployable state, forming a full-range coverage situation where the Fujian aircraft carrier advances into the Western Pacific, the Shandong aircraft carrier focuses on the Taiwan Strait, and the Liaoning aircraft carrier focuses on the South China Sea.
However, Tan Chuan-yi also objectively pointed out that before the commissioning of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, the PLA's three conventional-powered aircraft carriers differ significantly from the U.S. aircraft carriers in essence: The PLA's aircraft carriers focus on operations in the Western Pacific, relying on the advantage of local supply, with shorter maintenance cycles and faster response times; the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, on the other hand, possess global deployment capabilities, capable of approaching and deterring forward, theoretically having unlimited endurance advantages. This difference stems from the characteristics of the two militaries' equipment —— the PLA's conventional-powered aircraft carriers have limited endurance and are destined to operate in coastal areas, thus needing to rely on mainland firepower support (such as the Changjian-2000 missile showcased during the September 3rd parade, as well as the Haiji Yijie series and the land-based Dongfeng-15/17/19/20/21 series missiles, which can achieve full coverage strike against Guam). This layout is a strategic adaptation formed after two U.S.-China aircraft carrier confrontations.
Tan Chuan-yi detailed the two key cases of U.S.-China aircraft carrier confrontations: In May 2022, when the Liaoning aircraft carrier group was conducting long-range training in the Western Pacific, it encountered the U.S. Navy's Lincoln and Reagan aircraft carrier groups, leading to a maritime and air confrontation and electronic warfare. Ultimately, the U.S. aircraft carrier group chose to withdraw, and the Liaoning aircraft carrier achieved its first victory in a long-range confrontation "facing two." "Whoever retreats first is the loser," is his direct judgment on the outcome of the confrontation.
In late May 2025, the Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carrier groups confronted the U.S. Navy's Nimitz and Washington aircraft carrier groups in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific, with electronic warfare still being the core of the confrontation. This confrontation lasted about seven days, and the results showed: The Washington aircraft carrier only spent 10 days at sea before returning to the U.S. base in Yokosuka, Japan on June 4; the Nimitz aircraft carrier's movements were unclear, but it is speculated that it had moved to the Middle East; while the PLA aircraft carriers continued to carry out their assigned tasks. Again, the old saying remains: whoever runs away first loses.
Tan Chuan-yi finally pointed out that the commissioning of the PLA's three aircraft carriers is definitely not good news for the Trump administration. The U.S. aircraft carrier's withdrawal in the two confrontations objectively fueled the isolationist tendency within the U.S. If the U.S. military still wants to conduct close reconnaissance and deterrence against the PLA as before, it may no longer be possible.
Original text: www.toutiao.com/article/1843257440828416/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.