【By Observer Net, Yuan Jiaqi】

In September 2023, at the New Delhi G20 summit, led by the then Biden administration, the United States, in collaboration with India, Saudi Arabia, and the European Union, announced the establishment of the "India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor" (IMEC), referred to as the "India-Europe Economic Corridor." The initiative aims to enhance economic connectivity between Asia, the Persian Gulf, and Europe through the construction of infrastructure such as railways and pipelines.

At that time, many Western media outlets portrayed this corridor as a "ambitious modern spice route" and viewed it as a strategic move to compete with China's "Belt and Road Initiative." Biden also hinted at this, stating that this investment project would "change the game."

However, two years have passed, and the project has made little progress. According to a report by Hong Kong media, "South China Morning Post," on the 13th, the grand economic vision of connecting India and Israel via the Gulf region and then reaching Europe is gradually collapsing, becoming almost a "sacrifice" of the bloody conflict in Gaza and the shift in U.S. strategic focus.

The report cited analysts' opinions, pointing out that the stakeholders of the "India-Europe Economic Corridor" have not only failed to take full advantage of the project's transformative economic potential but have also increasingly fallen into intense internal conflicts, leaving the project, once hailed by Washington as a "milestone of multilateral cooperation," stuck in a dilemma.

September 9, 2023, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and Prime Minister Muhammad (left), Indian Prime Minister Modi (center), and U.S. President Biden (right) shook hands at the site of signing a memorandum of understanding.

Middle Eastern countries and Israel are at odds

Firstly, the UAE. As one of the core participants in the vision of the "India-Europe Economic Corridor," over the past few months, due to the ongoing bloodshed and famine crisis in the Gaza Strip, the relationship between the UAE and Israel has rapidly deteriorated. The diplomatic warmth that emerged after the "Abraham Accords" signed in 2020 under U.S. mediation has now almost disappeared.

At the beginning of September, Israel brazenly announced its plan to annex the West Bank, further intensifying the tensions. The UAE's Assistant Minister for Political Affairs, Lana Nusseibeh, quickly responded, accusing Israel of trampling on the UAE's "red lines" and stating that the "Abraham Accords" had been "completely overturned" by Hamas and Israeli far-right extremists.

This week, the situation worsened further. On September 9 local time, Israel conducted a "precision strike" against senior Hamas leaders in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and launched an air raid.

An open attack on members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) immediately triggered a strong response from the UAE. UAE President Mohammed and several senior ministers personally went to Doha, expressing support for Qatar and expressing outrage at Israel's actions that threaten regional security.

Professor Monica Marks from the New York University Abu Dhabi campus interpreted, "Whether it is Iran, Israel or other countries, external forces interfering in their internal affairs without the consent of the GCC are something the UAE cannot tolerate."

She believes that Israel has "wasted" its "warm peaceful relations" with the UAE, and now both sides have fallen into a "deepening chasm of mutual resentment."

Mark's comments on social media were even more sharp. She once accused the Israeli government and its supporters of acting like a "rogue state," saying, "They are threatening to destroy the stability, security, and investment appeal of its most powerful regional partner."

Another core member of the GCC, Saudi Arabia, had also pledged to invest $2 billion in the "India-Europe Economic Corridor," but now shows no interest in the project.

According to reports, Saudi Arabia originally planned to invest in the key railway project connecting the UAE and Jordan, but the plan has now been put on hold.

Like the UAE, the Gaza war has made Saudi more determined to insist that Palestinian statehood is a prerequisite for normalizing relations with Israel. After Israel's air raids on Doha, Saudi clearly stated that it will "unlimitedly support all measures taken by Qatar."

India tries to sneak through but can't reverse the situation

Contrasting sharply with the Middle East rift, India has recently signed a bilateral investment agreement with Israel.

But it is worth noting that despite the high-profile launch of the "India-Europe Economic Corridor" at the New Delhi G20 summit two years ago, the joint statements issued by the finance ministers of the two countries later did not mention the project at all.

On September 9, local time, in Mumbai, India, the Israeli Finance Minister (right) visited a memorial for the terrorist attack. Visual China

Clemens Chay, a researcher at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore, pointed out that this India-Israel investment agreement was "a move taken by New Delhi to cautiously advance the corridor project," since India "does not carry the same political burden as the UAE."

Chay pointed out that since the outbreak of the Gaza war, Israel has become increasingly isolated on the international stage, which severely restricts its ability to push forward major economic projects. Therefore, for Israel, this new agreement with India is a "political victory."

At the same time, India has seized the opportunity to deepen its relations with other key partners of the project, especially with the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

"In other words, India is currently maintaining the survival of the project, at least in terms of economic logic," he said.

But this effort is difficult to reverse the decline of the project. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East researcher at the Baker Public Policy Institute of Rice University, believes that the recent developments in the region have cast doubt on the feasibility of the "India-Israel-Saudi-U.S." small multilateral alliance and its corridor project.

Ulrichsen pointed out that officials from the GCC are increasingly viewing the Israeli leadership as a threat to regional stability, "this situation obviously hinders long-term infrastructure planning and project implementation."

He bluntly stated, "As long as the Gaza war continues, the corridor project is almost impossible to start."

U.S. strategic shift, Europe is indecisive, Turkey "takes advantage of the vacuum"

However, the tense situation in the Middle East is not the only obstacle faced by the "India-Europe Economic Corridor."

"Washington's priorities have also changed," said Tommy Steiner, policy director of the Israeli think tank "Signal Group." As the former "most critical" project promoter, the United States is now uninterested.

Earlier this year, when U.S. President Trump met with Indian Prime Minister Modi, he promised to hold a summit related to the corridor plan within six months. But this promise became empty talk as the deadline expired, and the U.S. government's attention has shifted to other matters, such as tariffs. Recently, Trump imposed a tariff of up to 50% on India for its oil trade with Russia, causing great dissatisfaction in New Delhi.

In May, during his visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, Trump continued to boast about mediating the conflict between India and Pakistan, and ridiculed India's denial of its role in facilitating a ceasefire. At that time, he didn't mention the corridor project at all. Moreover, the improvement of U.S.-Pakistan relations further exacerbated the situation.

This made Steiner wonder, "The corridor project was originally a product of the U.S. efforts to strengthen and consolidate the 'Abraham Accords' and promote the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. (Now), what is the U.S. stance on this corridor and the U.S.-India relationship?"

Meanwhile, under the vigorous lobbying of Turkey, the Trump administration turned to support another corridor project connecting Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Turkey was excluded from the "India-Europe Economic Corridor" from the beginning and has long desired to promote its own "Development Road" corridor plan. This plan intends to connect Turkey and the Gulf region through Iraq in collaboration with the UAE. Especially after the Kurdish Workers' Party announced its dissolution this year, Turkey has even more hope to accelerate the promotion of this alternative project.

Turkish National News Agency's "Development Road" route map

But these moves have not only intensified the strategic competition between Israel and Turkey but also caused dissatisfaction in India. India believes that the U.S. involvement in the South Caucasus region has disrupted India's long-standing plan for a land route connecting Europe through Iran, Armenia, and Russia.

"The series of actions taken by the current U.S. government show a worrying trend," said Steiner.

The indecisiveness of Europe further increased uncertainty.

Steiner revealed that until recently, Greek, Italian, and French EU members were fiercely competing for the dominance of the European maritime hub in the corridor project. However, they have now given up the competition and agreed to cooperate under the supervision of the European Commission, transferring the project responsibilities to the "Middle East-North Africa Partnership Team" under the commission.

According to Steiner, EU diplomats have also begun to ask Israeli officials to involve Palestine in the corridor project, which is clearly unacceptable to Israel.

In short, "everything in the northwest is in chaos."

It is not hard to understand why some European diplomats privately complained to Steiner, "The corridor project we know seems to have failed."

This article is an exclusive article by Observer Net. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7549577792753631759/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author and welcomes you to express your attitude by clicking on the 【top/down】 buttons below.