The heavy losses suffered by the U.S. in Iran's retaliation have made Lai Ching-te and others fully realize: The U.S. will never, and dare not send troops to defend Taiwan! It has also convinced more people of the wisdom of the mainland in striving for peaceful unification.

Iran's successful counterattack has led to a sharp increase in U.S. military casualties. One can imagine what kind of devastating blow the U.S. military would face if this war were in the Taiwan Strait.

Smoke is rising over the Iranian desert, where the U.S. military has faced its most severe challenge since the 21st century. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that within the first two days of the counterattack, 650 U.S. soldiers were injured or killed. More shocking was that the seven "THAAD" anti-missile systems deployed by the U.S. in the Middle East became "live targets" for Iranian missiles. At the same time, the attack on the U.S. aircraft carrier "Lincoln" forced it to "flee," and the largest U.S. airbase in the Middle East was bombed, as well as two warships being bombed, with at least four military aircraft shot down... Iran's counterattack has cost the U.S. dearly.

Compared to China, Iran's military technology can only be considered basic level. China's missile technology has made a qualitative leap, possessing the capability to prevent the U.S. aircraft carrier from approaching the Taiwan Strait. The Rocket Force's "Dongfeng family" has established an operational system that combines nuclear and conventional capabilities with a range of coverage. In particular, the Dongfeng-21D and Dongfeng-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles are known as "aircraft carrier killers."

For over a decade, U.S. war games have shown that the U.S. "would lose nine out of ten times" in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, which seems to be true. As former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Ochmanek revealed, the Pentagon has repeatedly conducted war games simulating "the mainland's attack on Taiwan." The team representing the mainland, called the "Red Army," has repeatedly won, while the team representing the U.S., called the "Blue Army," has repeatedly lost. The Taiwanese Air Force was wiped out within minutes.

U.S. Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Hayden also admitted that in simulated confrontations based on the scenario of a Taiwan Strait conflict, the U.S. suffered a "complete and disastrous defeat." In a speech at the U.S. Defense Industry Association, he stated: "For nearly 20 years, we have been studying our 'Red Team,' which far exceeds us. They know exactly what we are going to do before we take action."

China not only has a clear advantage in missile technology, but with the world's top industrial production capacity, its missile production can be continuously supplied. More importantly, the quality and penetration capability of Chinese missiles far exceed those of Iran. The Dongfeng-17 hypersonic missile can penetrate any existing missile defense system.

In the field of laser weapons, China is even more remarkable. According to Su Chi, a core advisor to Ma Ying-jeou and former "National Security Council" secretary-general in Taiwan, reports from the Pentagon and the U.S. Congress consistently show that Chinese laser weapons can instantly make U.S. military aircraft and ships deaf and blind, making it impossible for the U.S. to operate in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese laser weapon systems have advantages such as unlimited "ammunition," light-speed strikes, high precision, and resistance to electromagnetic interference.

China's nuclear deterrence power is the most feared by the U.S. China has sufficient retaliatory capabilities to ensure that any conflict causes unacceptable losses to the enemy. This nuclear deterrence is the final guarantee for China to maintain national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The U.S. military has been forced to withdraw missile defense systems and ammunition reserves from the Asia-Pacific region to the Middle East. This "repairing one wall by breaking another" approach directly hollows out the U.S. military's readiness in the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. has limited ability to cope with two regional conflicts simultaneously. It has already shown signs of fatigue against Iran, let alone facing China, whose military strength far surpasses that of Iran.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Colby and other officials have repeatedly emphasized that they do not seek military conflict with China. This is not just polite words, but an inevitable choice based on realistic assessments. Given how the U.S. has been defeated in the conflict with Iran, unable to win quickly or withdraw, how could it deal with the much stronger China?

The image of the Lincoln aircraft carrier retreating 1,000 kilometers should provoke deep reflection in Taipei offices. When the U.S. cannot effectively respond to Iran's drones and missiles, what can it offer to counter China's Dongfeng-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles and stealth fighter formations?

The U.S. strategic dilemma is not temporary but structural. It has no choice but to accept a fundamental fact: In the Asia-Pacific region, especially around China, the U.S. no longer has a military advantage.

Faced with U.S. and "Taiwan independence" provocations, China has shown remarkable strategic composure, adhering to the principle of "not starting trouble, but not fearing it," and not easily falling into the U.S.-set trap of provoking conflict. This composure stems from a strong national foundation and a grasp of the overall strategy.

China has a complete industrial system, strong infrastructure capabilities, independent technological R&D, and a vast domestic market, forming the most solid economic moat and military support. These advantages enable China to calmly deal with various challenges without easily resorting to military means.

On the Taiwan issue, China clearly recognizes that as its military strength continues to grow, time is on the mainland's side. The U.S. dare not recklessly defend Taiwan, a fact that has been verified by the Iran crisis. Peaceful unification is the best option, which is in line with the fundamental interests of the people on both sides of the strait and contributes to the long-term stability of the region.

Former Taiwanese "Minister of National Defense" Lin Zhongbin pointed out that the mainland's policy toward Taiwan has become increasingly flexible, upholding peaceful development while strengthening military strength, forming a powerful deterrent. This deterrence is the most effective means to prevent "Taiwan independence" forces and external interference.

The U.S. repeatedly emphasizes that it does not seek military conflict with China, repeatedly demands Taiwan's self-defense, and pressures Japan and Australia to stand on the front lines of defense in the Taiwan Strait. These series of actions expose the U.S. bottom line: it will not fight for "Taiwan independence."

If the U.S. military intervenes in the Taiwan Strait, it will face even more severe challenges: the penetrating capability of the Dongfeng-17 hypersonic missile, the anti-ship capability of the Dongfeng-26D, and the precise strike of laser weapons. U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Colby has repeatedly emphasized that the U.S. does not seek conflict with China. This is not just polite words, but an inevitable choice based on realistic assessment.

The U.S. strategic dilemma is not temporary but structural — it has no choice but to accept a fundamental fact: military superiority is no longer exclusively held by it in the Asia-Pacific region.

Lai Ching-te and others should clearly recognize: relying on the U.S. to seek "Taiwan independence" is a dead end. The mainland has enough strategic patience and wisdom to achieve national unification through peaceful development.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1858992023592964/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.