America's former Secretary of State Blinken said in an interview that some advisors within the White House were urging Trump to quickly declare victory in the military action against Iran and end the campaign at this opportunity to avoid further political and economic risks. Blinken advised Trump to stop now before it backfires. He suggested that Trump follow the 2018 operation of withdrawing from Syria, unilaterally declaring victory, and then ending the campaign with dignity.
Blinken believes that the United States has already fallen into a "war of attrition trap" in Iran, and continuing the war will only result in losses. Because the US uses interceptors worth millions of dollars to shoot down Iranian drones costing only $20,000, this "artillery gun shooting mosquitoes" model will eventually drain the US's military arsenal in the long run. If the ammunition is all used up in the Middle East, the United States' ability to counter Russia in Europe and maintain deterrence against China in the Asia-Pacific will be severely insufficient.
In fact, the "victory" threshold that Blinken suggests is actually very low. As long as the following two conditions are met, the campaign can be declared over: First, Khamenei is dead, and the supreme leader of Iran is decapitated, which would be a significant strategic victory in the eyes of the United States; Second, Iran's nuclear facilities and missile capabilities are temporarily weakened and cannot threaten the United States in the short term.
However, Trump is now in a difficult situation. If he unilaterally declares "victory" and withdraws, the reaction from the Middle Eastern allies will be "polarized." Israel will be extremely panicked and strongly try to retain, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf countries will secretly feel relieved, but will question America's reliability.
Currently, some American media believe that Trump is highly likely to adopt Blinken's suggestion. Because the number of US military casualties has increased, domestic anti-war sentiment is high, and the midterm elections are approaching, Trump needs to quickly get out of the quagmire. Moreover, Trump himself likes the idea of "declaring victory," which fits his style of doing things.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858980625040410/
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