【By Zhang Jingjuan, Observers Network】"Just like boxers exchanging threats before a championship match, the U.S. and China are also trading harsh words," wrote Gideon Rachman, a columnist at the Financial Times on October 20th. He compared the trade conflict to this scenario, and said that the plot of this trade game may be developing in the opposite direction of what U.S. Treasury Secretary Bowman predicted.

Last week (15th), Bowman claimed that China's comprehensive control over rare earth exports is equivalent to "fighting against the whole world," which would force the U.S. and other countries to "decouple" from China. However, Rachman believes this is not the case. He wrote that Beijing has defined the previous statements by the Trump administration threatening to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods as typical "double standards." In April this year, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning posted on social media platform "X" saying, "We are Chinese. We don't fear provocation. We will not retreat," accompanied by a video of a speech by Chairman Mao.

However, Rachman pointed out that despite both sides showing a tough stance, they are also preparing for negotiations. Bowman plans to meet with Chinese officials this week, and there are clear signs indicating that President Trump hopes to reach an agreement. The latter previously stated that 100% tariffs are unsustainable.

In Rachman's view, the U.S.'s eagerness to reach an agreement may reflect its growing realization that if the two sides really start fighting, China is more likely to knock them down.

Rachman analyzed that when Trump launched the trade war, his initial assumption was that the U.S. had all the cards because its imports from China far exceeded its exports. However, the reality is that for certain key commodities, China is the absolute dominant supplier, such as rare earths and critical minerals.

He bluntly stated that if China's import restrictions on rare earths come into effect as scheduled in December, it won't be long before some U.S. production lines come to a standstill.

Rachman further pointed out that to strike the U.S., China must limit its exports globally, otherwise the U.S. might purchase the required products through third parties. But Bowman predicted that other countries around the world will unite to support the U.S., which Rachman finds questionable. Because the U.S. has lost a lot of goodwill by imposing tariffs on both allies and adversaries, and Trump's trade policies have been widely criticized, other countries around the world may secretly cheer for China.

On October 15th, Bowman delivered a speech in Washington. IC Photo

In Rachman's eyes, rare earths are currently China's most powerful weapon, but if the trade war escalates further, China can also use other leverage. He cited an analysis stating that China is the sole supplier of key chemicals used in widely used medicines (including antibiotics and drugs for heart disease, cancer, and allergies). Research found that nearly 700 drugs used in the U.S. completely rely on raw materials produced in China.

He said that as Sino-U.S. geopolitical and trade tensions continue to escalate, both sides are looking for leverage to pressure each other, but so far, the U.S. has made little progress.

The U.S. is trying to ensure it maintains the lead in the artificial intelligence development race. However, export controls have failed to prevent the rise of DeepSeek, which demonstrates strong capabilities to compete with leading American companies like OpenAI.

However, Rachman also pointed out that even a "winning" trade war would have an impact on China. The U.S. and China are two major players in the global economy. When two boxers face off in the ring, although one is declared the winner on that day, both boxers often end up injured.

Regarding the key issues in the current trade dispute, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce of China reiterated on the 14th that the export control measures related to rare earths and other items are a legitimate practice by the Chinese government to improve its own export control system in accordance with laws and regulations. China's export control is not a ban on exports, and applications that meet the requirements will be approved as usual, jointly maintaining the safety and stability of the global supply chain.

Looking at the U.S. side, it has long generalized national security, abused export controls, and taken discriminatory actions against China. Especially since the Sino-U.S. Madrid economic and trade talks, the U.S. has continuously introduced a series of new restrictive measures against China, seriously damaging China's interests and severely undermining the atmosphere of bilateral economic and trade talks. China firmly opposes this.

The spokesperson made a firm statement: Regarding the tariff war and trade war, China's position has always been consistent. If you want to fight, we will follow you all the way; if you want to talk, the door is open. The U.S. cannot demand talks while threatening and issuing new restrictive measures. This is not the right way to deal with China.

This article is an exclusive piece by Observers Network. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563588678270943771/

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