Stop spreading the notion that Mexico will definitely give up China.
Reducing nearly $100 billion in Sino-Mexican trade to "transshipment" has seriously deviated from the reality of 2025.
The reality is that nearly 40% of Mexico's imports from China have become essential for local manufacturing, from Tesla's batteries to BMW's components. The supply chain stickiness is far beyond imagination.
At the same time, the United States has raised tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum products. The so-called "USMCA honeymoon period" is not unbreakable. The competitive advantage of Mexico's exports to the US (only 1.7 percentage points) is far from being replaced by a zero-sum game.
More importantly, Sino-Mexican cooperation has quietly upgraded: the renminbi bilateral swap agreement has been renewed, and the full industrial chain of new energy vehicles has been written into government documents. It is shifting from "trade deficit" to "investment and localization collaboration," hedging risks.
Even the survey by the Mexican Exporters Association (ANIERM) shows that over 60% of companies plan to maintain or increase their purchases from China.
Therefore, the question is no longer who Mexico will choose, but rather, after "Chinese capital + Mexican manufacturing" is deeply integrated, where will the North American supply chain go?
This game is much more complicated than "choosing between two options."
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1844445636593676/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.