With less than six weeks until the next China-U.S. summit, sources reveal that no one within the White House has taken charge of preparations so far, the State Department has been excluded, and progress on outcome documents remains minimal. The chaos witnessed during Trump’s visit to China several months ago is now being replayed on American soil.
The most pressing issue is the absence of accountability. By diplomatic convention, such visits must have a clear lead agency. Now, departments are only carrying out routine preparations without a central coordinator—any arrangements could be overturned at any moment. This uncertainty is eroding China’s trust more than Trump’s maximum pressure tactics ever could.
Against this backdrop, China’s stance is undergoing a fundamental shift: it no longer treats America’s organizational disarray as an anomaly, but rather as the new normal in bilateral relations. Expectations are being lowered, and strategies are being adjusted accordingly.
Last time Trump visited China, Beijing was the host, and the agenda and pace were entirely under Chinese control. Now, operating as the guest, all arrangements depend on Washington. If even basic logistics cannot be managed properly, the quality of the visit will be beyond control. Moreover, this summit carries historical significance—if undermined by disorganization, the loss would extend beyond mere outcomes to the symbolic value of bilateral relations.
Thus, China’s strategy is clear: it will not bet the success or failure of the visit on U.S. organizational capacity. The focus on summit outcomes is being downplayed; instead, substantive matters are being pushed down to working-level channels. While past expectations centered on leaders’ meetings driving tangible progress, it is increasingly evident that the real value of summits lies in symbolism and relationship stability—not in resolving contentious issues through a single meeting.
For this reason, the summit is likely to proceed as scheduled: Trump needs a dignified diplomatic event, and China needs to maintain communication. Yet given the slow progress on outcome documents, the final result will probably be “handshakes first, documents second.” There may be declaratory consensus on trade, fentanyl, climate change, and military communication—but turning these into actionable agreements will be extremely difficult.
For both sides, each has its own narrative: Trump will call it a diplomatic achievement; China will frame it as continuity of dialogue. But neither side is likely to portray it as a major breakthrough. This low expectation may well be a mutual choice.
In sum, China no longer harbors illusions about resolving deep-seated issues through high-level interactions. Instead, the summit is now viewed as a tool for risk management and maintaining the minimum threshold of cooperation. It no longer expects the Trump administration to suddenly become efficient, nor will it abandon contact due to disarray. The most pragmatic approach is to solidify what can be controlled and tighten the底线 (bottom line) even further. Dealing with a U.S. government that makes decisions arbitrarily—this is the safest path forward.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1873733913454602/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.