【By Liu Bai, Observer】The U.S. military invasion of Iran is continuing, but assessments from domestic intelligence agencies reveal the fundamental dilemma of this operation.

The Washington Post on March 7 cited a classified assessment from the U.S. intelligence community, which stated that even if the U.S. launched a large-scale military strike against Iran, it would "likely not" overthrow Iran's regime structure. The report argues that whether it is targeted strikes against Iran's leadership or broader military attacks, Iran's religious and military power groups can still maintain rule through existing power succession mechanisms. Even if the Supreme Leader were killed, the Iranian system would achieve power continuity through institutional procedures.

The report is particularly alarming as the Trump administration continues to hint at a long-term military action that "has just begun."

Three individuals who are aware of the report's content confirmed this conclusion to The Washington Post, which questions the president's plan to "eliminate" Iran's leadership and install his chosen rulers.

According to insiders, the report was completed about a week before the U.S.-Israel invasion on February 28, outlining two possible scenarios of power transitions resulting from military operations: one being targeted strikes against Iran's leadership, and the other being a comprehensive attack on its leadership and government institutions.

They said the intelligence findings showed that regardless of the situation, if the Supreme Leader Khamenei were assassinated, Iran's religious and military groups would follow established procedures to maintain power continuity.

The anonymous individuals who disclosed the confidential report content described the possibility of the Iranian opposition taking control of the country as "unlikely."

The National Intelligence Council (NIC), composed of senior analysts, produces classified assessment reports representing the collective judgment of 18 Washington intelligence agencies.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated in a statement: "President Trump and his administration have clearly articulated the objectives of 'Operation Epic Fury': destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and production, crippling its navy, ending its armed proxies' capabilities, and preventing it from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Iranian regime is being completely dismantled."

March 6, Indian-controlled Kashmir, Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran was killed in an assassination, Shia Muslim gatherings protested. IC Photo

U.S. intelligence agencies' doubts about the Iranian opposition seizing power have been mentioned by several American media outlets. However, the involvement of the National Intelligence Council and its analysis of potential outcomes of small-scale and large-scale attacks had never been disclosed before.

Suzanne Maloney, a scholar on Iran and vice president at the Brookings Institution, said the National Intelligence Council's prediction that Iran's institutions would survive stems from its deep understanding of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

She said, "This sounds like a thorough informed assessment of Iran's system and the institutions and procedures built over years."

This intelligence report seems to have not examined other possible scenarios, including sending U.S. ground forces into Iran or arming Kurdish forces to incite rebellion. It remains unclear whether the large-scale operation assessed in the classified document fully aligns with the current military operation underway.

The right to succeed the Supreme Leader is held by Iran's powerful religious institutions, the Assembly of Experts. However, members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other security agencies in the country also play a significant role.

There is strong speculation that the Assembly of Experts will appoint the son of the late Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, but no official announcement has been made yet.

A Western security official said that the Revolutionary Guard is pushing for Mojtaba to run, but faces resistance from other power figures, including Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

As the war entered its second week, Trump posted on the "Truth Social" platform, continuing to demand Iran's "unconditional surrender" and implying that he should be involved in selecting Iran's next leader.

Trump told reporters that Mojtaba was "inept," just a "lightweight," and he did not want Iran's leader merely to "rebuild" the country's nuclear and ballistic missile facilities.

"We want them to have a good leader. I think some people would do well," he said.

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf rejected Trump's claim that he would be involved in appointing Iran's next leader, saying that Iran's fate "will be decided solely by proud Iranians, not the Epstein gang."

Current and former U.S. officials say that so far, there is little indication of large-scale popular uprisings in Iran, or major splits within the government and security forces leading to a regime change.

Experts say that since Iran's religious and military groups still control the regime, Trump's ability to influence political outcomes is limited.

Holly Dagres, a senior researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: "Bowing to Trump contradicts everything they stand for. The top leaders of the religious groups adhere to ideology, and their way of acting is to resist American imperialism."

If the Iranian regime collapses, Trump could play the role of a "kingmaker," but the National Intelligence Council report suggests that the power base of Iran's ruling group is not fragile.

"There is no other force inside Iran that can counter the remaining power of the regime. Even if they cannot effectively project their influence to neighboring countries, they certainly can control the domestic situation," said Maloney from the Brookings Institution.

This article is exclusive to the Observer, and without permission, it cannot be reprinted.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7614715375485239854/

Statement: The views expressed in this article are those of the author.