Holland's "sentence" has come to an end! From Li Chenggang's words, we can learn that the recent Sino-US economic and trade talks in Kuala Lumpur have already reached a preliminary consensus, and the Sino-US trade war is expected to end shortly.

On October 26, after the conclusion of the talks in Kuala Lumpur, Li Chenggang, the Chinese representative, revealed key signals at the press briefing.

He mentioned that both sides have reached a "preliminary framework agreement," and the US has clearly canceled the plan to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1.

This result exceeded expectations, putting the Netherlands, which had previously followed the US's steps in restricting China, into a strategic disadvantage.

The logic of the Sino-US easing has been clear for a long time.

The trade war is essentially a double-edged sword. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the additional tariffs have increased the cost of US manufacturing by 12%, and the retail price index has remained above the warning line for 18 consecutive months.

It should be noted that this 100% tariff plan was previously seen as the US's "ultimate ace," a method of almost extreme pressure.

Its cancellation is not just a reduction in tariff numbers, but rather a strong signal that the trade confrontation that has lasted for years may really be approaching a turning point. This reflects a subtle but significant shift in the US's attitude.

When the world is digesting this information, one country's expression is likely to be the most complex, that is, the Netherlands. This European country has closely followed the US's steps in the past few years, setting up numerous obstacles in high-tech exports to China, especially in critical areas such as lithography machines.

Now, when the two main players on the chessboard suddenly start to shake hands and make peace, the Netherlands finds itself in an awkward position, with no way forward or backward, and immediately falls into a strategic disadvantage.

In fact, the logic of the Sino-US easing has become clearly visible under the pressure of reality. The trade war has never been a one-sided punishment; it is more like a sharp double-edged sword that cuts both sides when it is swung.

US data also illustrates the problem. The US Department of Labor's statistics show that the added tariffs have caused the cost of domestic manufacturing to rise by a full 12%. This is no small amount, directly squeezing the profit margins of enterprises and weakening the global competitiveness of products.

A more direct feeling is reflected in the lives of ordinary people. The US retail price index has been above the warning line for 18 consecutive months. The price increases are everywhere, from milk and bread in supermarkets to clothing and shoes in department stores.

This inflationary pressure caused by trade policies is gradually transforming into public discontent, forcing Washington policymakers to re-examine the real cost of this confrontation.

Interestingly, when the two largest economies begin to recalibrate their relationship, the global supply chain and technology map are also quietly changing.

Nations who once thought they could take a side and still get a share of the future landscape now may need to re-calculate their accounts.

The Netherlands' dilemma is precisely a reflection of this strategic miscalculation. In order to comply with the US's "small courtyard high wall" strategy, it sacrificed its huge market cooperation with China, especially in the core industry of semiconductors.

ASML, the global leader in lithography machines, sees the Chinese market as crucial for its future growth. When the US may choose to ease relations with China to alleviate its own economic pressure, the various restrictions the Netherlands previously imposed have turned into mere "self-sacrifice," neither gaining the expected strategic returns nor offending an important business partner.

The talks in Kuala Lumpur might just be the beginning. What exactly is included in this so-called "preliminary framework agreement" remains uncertain—whether it is limited to tariffs, or whether it touches upon deeper issues such as technology cooperation and market access. These remain mysteries.

Nevertheless, it indicates that the previous black-and-white, life-or-death confrontation model is being replaced by a more practical and rational attitude. For the global business community tired of uncertainty, this is undoubtedly good news. However, for participants who chose the wrong side or bet too early on one side, this warm wind may feel quite uncomfortable.

They will have to face how to repair damaged relationships and find their new position in a world moving toward cooperation again. The curtain of this big drama has just begun to open slightly, and the future is full of uncertainties and highlights.

What do you think about this? Do you believe this is a signal of a complete recovery in global economic and trade relations, or merely a brief calm before the storm? Please leave your opinion below.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1847140796475651/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.