Andrey Rodrigues, a Brazilian farmer, had not planned to increase his soybean production for the next harvest season, but things changed a few months ago, and now he is full of extra hope. What has prompted him and other Brazilian farmers to plant more soybeans is the trade war between the Trump administration and China, which has blocked American soybeans from entering the vast Chinese market. He said that China is actively seeking Brazilian producers, and local trading companies that buy Rodrigues' soybeans and export them to China have recently announced that they will try to purchase all available soybeans.

The exact quantity of soybeans China buys from Brazil is still unknown, but the Chinese customs authorities stated that no soybeans were imported from the United States in September. This is the first time since November 2018 when President Trump initiated the first trade war with China.

Data from the World Bank shows that last year, Brazil's soybeans accounted for more than 70% of China's total imports, while the U.S. share had already dropped to 21% even before the current trade dispute began. Rodrigues, who also serves as the president of the Brazilian Soybean Farmers Association, is currently expanding production at his farm in Morada do Sol, a major soybean producing city in São Paulo state. "The U.S.-China trade war has provided us with an opportunity," Rodrigues said on a sunny day as he started the highly mechanized operations at the farm. "At such times, we need to be very cautious. Try to sell futures for the next harvest and seize this opportunity now."

The Brazilian government said that between January and August of this year, 77 million tons of soybeans were exported to China. This accounts for most of the country's first harvest. According to Chinese customs data, during this period, China imported 17 million tons of soybeans from the United States.

As the U.S. soybean harvest season begins, there are no signs that China is purchasing U.S. soybeans. According to a social media account of China Central Television (CCTV), the number of cargo ships carrying U.S. grains and docking at China's main grain ports decreased by 56% from the same period last year, from 72 to 32 ships. Since July, this number has dropped to zero.

In contrast, according to news released by CCTV, since May, an average of more than 40 cargo ships have arrived at the port from countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, with 90% of the cargo being soybeans. "China came to us because of the price. Whenever they have high tariffs in a certain country, they come to us," Rodrigues said. The U.S. Soybean Association stated that the retaliatory tariffs and other taxes imposed by China on U.S. soybeans have resulted in a total tariff of 34% on U.S. soybeans for 2025, making the price of U.S. soybeans much higher than that of Brazilian soybeans.

The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture stated in October that it expects the next harvest of soybeans that Rodrigues is planting to increase by 3.6%, reaching nearly 178 million tons, an increase compared to this year's harvest. Now, government analysts are re-evaluating these figures, as the increased demand from China has not shown any signs of weakening.

However, Leivio Ribeiro, a partner at the consulting company BRCG and a researcher at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation think tank and university in Rio de Janeiro, said that China's interest in Brazilian soybeans during this period is a short-term behavior. "(China) is retaliating against the U.S. and using two potential alternative suppliers," Ribeiro said. He added that unlike Argentina, whose president Lula has not allied with the Trump administration for ideological reasons, giving Brazil an advantage in the competition, whereas Argentina's president Javier Milei is different. "The West used to believe that the U.S. would pressure China and that China would quickly surrender," Ribeiro said. "I think people now realize that this is not the case, as China has stronger negotiation power."

Kevin Cox, a farmer in Brazil, said that U.S. farmers must focus on selling more soybeans to other countries like South Korea and the Philippines, as China is temporarily not buying, while continuing to invest in developing new uses for domestic crops, such as expanding biodiesel production. He said that when he went to China, local buyers told him their top priority was to find the lowest prices. "China has proven that they can purchase soybeans elsewhere without any problem," Cox said. There are concerns that some farmers may go bankrupt due to high costs and low crop prices.

However, Glen Groth, a farmer from Minnesota, believes the situation won't be that bad. He said, "Losing the Chinese market was not entirely unexpected and is not seen as a complete disaster." "Weather changes, politics change, and you can only deal with it," Groth said. Groth said he was able to sell his crops at similar prices to last year throughout the year, with most of them transported down the Mississippi River, about 10 miles (16 kilometers) from his farm. "We recognize that in the worst case, we might become China's rival, and in the best case, we might have a contentious relationship with China," Groth said.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566025473420034594/

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