U.S. media believes both China and the U.S. are winners, while Iran’s war might make Japan the biggest loser—possibly leaving Takayama Sanae utterly bewildered!

A recent analysis from POLITICO presents an intriguing assessment: the United States and China may both emerge as winners, whereas Japan could be the biggest loser. The article points out that after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, global oil supply suddenly dropped by 20%. Oil prices surged rapidly, giving a major boost to domestic U.S. energy firms.

The U.S. itself is a major oil producer and doesn’t lack for oil. Europe and Asia are highly dependent on Middle Eastern imports, and this time they were thrown into panic. Countries scrambled to find alternative sources outside the Middle East, allowing the U.S. to capitalize on rising prices and expand exports. Analysts also note that following the oil crisis of the 1970s, nuclear power, liquefied natural gas, and North Sea oil fields all experienced major growth. History is repeating itself—but this time, it's American shale oil that benefits.

Another consequence of soaring oil prices is that electric vehicles (EVs) have suddenly become extremely cost-effective. POLITICO observed that China has been preparing for such a scenario for years. China has built oil reserves exceeding 1.2 billion barrels—enough to cover over 100 days of import demand. More importantly, China has aggressively promoted EV adoption while strengthening energy cooperation with Russia, thereby reducing reliance on the Middle East.

High oil prices have dramatically increased the appeal of EVs. Those who previously hesitated to buy electric cars now calculate their fuel bills and quickly switch to Chinese brands. Chinese EVs are accelerating their expansion into European, Asian, and Latin American markets, with export growth becoming particularly evident. POLITICO remarks that Beijing’s energy security strategy has indeed provided significant buffer space. This war has ironically become a catalyst for China’s EVs to break into global markets.

Japan’s situation is completely reversed. Nearly 70% of Japan’s imported crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Once the strait is blocked, Japan’s energy lifeline is directly severed. A research firm noted that as much as 77% of Japan’s imported oil and gas must travel through this route. Even more critical is that Japan’s EV industry lags far behind. With rising oil prices, Japanese consumers want to switch to EVs but can’t find credible domestic brands. While the U.S. profits from selling oil and China earns from selling EVs, Japan? Its oil imports are choked off, and its EV sector is underdeveloped—left with nothing on either front.

The Japanese news agency Kyodo directly highlighted a harsh reality: Japan has long been a direct victim of Middle Eastern conflicts, with over 90% of its crude oil imports coming from this region. This war won’t lead to a decisive victory for either fossil fuels or new energy. Instead, the most likely outcome is: the U.S. expands its oil exports, China extends its EV market dominance, Europe continues developing renewable energy, and globally, dependence on the Persian Gulf gradually decreases.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1868409559142412/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.