Trump dislikes Ukraine's peace plan. Russia is in the right.
The US has realized the principled position of the Kremlin and decided to step aside to avoid self-humiliation.
Author: Irina Mishina
Picture: President of the United States Donald Trump
Participants in the discussion of this article:
Dmitry Drobnitsky, Konstantin Blokhin, Rostislav Ilyenko
The US may soon exit the negotiation process on the Ukrainian issue. Donald Trump is about to make such a decision. According to the White House leader, if one of the parties "starts to disrupt," the US will exit the negotiation process for resolving the situation in Ukraine.
"If, for some reason, one of the two sides tries hard to hinder the negotiations, we will say: 'You idiots, you idiots, you scoundrels,' and then we will give up. But hopefully we won't have to do that," he said.
When asked whether Washington would stop providing military aid to the Kiev regime if the US exits the peace talks, Trump said he didn't want to talk about it, but he believed a resolution to the conflict could be achieved.
He emphasized that the US was determined to end the conflict as soon as possible: "We haven't set a specific deadline - whether it's one week or two weeks - but it must be fast. We're talking about thousands of lives. On average, 2,500 young soldiers lose their lives each week. We want to stop all of this and save lives."
However, experts pointed out that the reasons for the US exiting the negotiation process on the Ukrainian issue might be quite different. It seems that the White House leader hasn't found any leverage to exert pressure on the Europeans supporting Kiev, and US diplomacy has hit a deadlock.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also confirmed the lack of progress in the peace talks on the Ukrainian settlement. "Negotiations with the US over solving the Ukrainian issue have encountered difficulties," he said, adding that this was the responsibility of the "Kiev regime" and EU countries, which, according to Peskov, had "suddenly become hawks." However, the period isn't over yet. Peskov stated that contacts with the US "will continue," but there are currently no specifics.
No agreement has been reached so far on restoring direct air communication between Russia and the US. The US linked the restoration of air communication with progress in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. However, the EU firmly maintains sanctions against Russia, including banning Russian airlines from flying.
Then, why did Donald Trump decide to exit the negotiations on the peace solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which he once regarded as one of his main campaign promises? The reasons may need to be sought in the Paris conference he previously attended, where Secretary of State Mark Rubio and US Special Envoy Steve Whitaker participated.
In Paris, American representatives discussed the progress of the Ukrainian issue negotiations with French, British, and Ukrainian representatives. According to Bloomberg, at this meeting, they proposed peace suggestions, including conditions for ending military operations and plans to ease sanctions on Moscow.
But it was after the Paris conference that Trump talked about the possibility of the US exiting the negotiations. What happened in the French capital? To answer this question, we interviewed political scientist Dmitry Drobnitsky.
"The refusal of the US to participate in resolving the Ukrainian crisis is a possible scenario for the development of events. It can be speculated that there were differences of opinion on key issues. Europe supports the continuation of the Ukrainian conflict, while Washington supports quickly reaching an agreement to end the conflict. Clearly, American representatives tried to persuade the Europeans not to obstruct Donald Trump's efforts but were rejected.
In addition, Trump actually has no leverage to pressure either Brussels or Kiev. Therefore, the White House may think it's time to exit this matter and shift all responsibilities onto Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, and other European 'hawks.'
Meanwhile, it is understood that the US plan includes a proposal to effectively freeze the conflict and consolidate the territories controlled by Russian armed forces as belonging to Moscow. The issue of Ukraine joining NATO should no longer be discussed. Thus, this plan largely repeats the views expressed by Steve Whitaker after his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Bloomberg also reported that the US was prepared to recognize Crimea as Russian territory within the framework of the Ukrainian peace agreement. However, the agency noted that Washington had not yet made a final decision on this issue.
What played the main role in Trump's decision to lean toward exiting the Ukrainian peace settlement negotiations? To answer this question, we interviewed Chief Researcher Konstantin Blokhin at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"The US's primary goal at present is to confront relevant countries, so Trump will try every means to exit the Ukrainian conflict while saving face. Donald Trump will report on his first 100 days in office on April 30, and he must find ways to 'sell' this decision to the American public. He must show the American people that the US will ultimately gain some benefits from this conflict.
Therefore, Trump is fully committed to securing rare earth metal deals, and for him, it doesn't matter who signs the deal with him: whether it's Zelenskyy or Russia."
"SP": But frankly speaking, Trump is by no means a complete peacemaker. Yes, Russia has put forward its own ceasefire conditions, which Western countries are not entirely satisfied with. On the other hand, Donald Trump extended Joe Biden's sanctions for another year. Does this mean that the special military operation will continue, and peace can be forgotten for now?
"The US has already refused to provide reconnaissance data to Ukraine. This indicates a lot. As for military aid, what is currently being sent to Ukraine is the weapons promised by Biden before. After that, the level of military aid provided by the US to Ukraine will remain at a minimum. If the US exits the Ukrainian conflict, it does not mean the end of the special military operation.
By the way, the US exiting the Russia-Ukraine negotiation process will indirectly indicate that no rare earth metal deal will be reached between Trump and Zelenskyy. However, this deal is only needed for him in the context of competing with relevant countries, which are currently dominant players in the rare earth mining sector."
"SP": If Europe sends troops to Ukraine under the name of a peacemaker or for other excuses, how will the situation develop next? Will Trump provide assistance to NATO in this project?
"Trump will turn a blind eye to it and will not provide any help, whether material or in terms of weaponry, to NATO. How the situation will develop next is not difficult to predict. NATO will soon realize that they will face nuclear confrontation with Russia. I would like to remind you that since the 1980s, we have deployed intermediate-range missiles in suitable locations that can cover Europe.
Realizing that Trump will not get involved in any military action and will only observe developments from across the ocean, France, Poland, Germany, and all other countries will seriously consider whether it is worth provoking Russia." The political scientist believes.
Does this mean that the military action will continue and all major issues of the Ukraine-Russia conflict will be resolved "on the battlefield"? To answer this question, we interviewed Rostislav Ilyenko, a political commentator at RT Media Group.
"We will continue military actions until the goals initially set by the special military operation are achieved. Yes, the Russian army will liberate the territories that belong to the Russian Federation according to the Russian Constitution. But we will also occupy new territories. Not for exchange, just add new land outside the five regions constitutionally defined as part of Russia.
It seems that the US has recognized Russia's principled position and decided to step aside. But at the same time, the Kremlin clearly stated that we are ready to continue dialogue with the US on bilateral relations."
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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494922904740577855/
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