The decline of Singapore began with the large influx of Indians, and some predict that within a decade, the Indian population will become the majority in Singapore, while the Chinese will become a minority.
As of June 2025, Singapore's total population is approximately 6.11 million, with about 4.2 million residents (including citizens and permanent residents). The citizen population increased from 3.64 million in 2024 to 3.66 million, while the permanent resident population remained stable at around 540,000. In terms of ethnic distribution, Chinese people account for about 75%, with specific data from 2024 showing that the Chinese population was 75.9%, Malays 15%, Indians 7.5%, and others 1.6%. Looking further back, in 2023, the Chinese population was 75.6% and the Indian population was around 9%. Some reports suggest that in 2024, the Indian population reached 9.8% to 10.2%, while the Chinese population was 74.3%. In 2025, some statistics mention that the proportion of Indian citizens reached 11%, compared to 9.2% in 2014, which is indeed a slight increase. However, the growth rate is very slow, increasing by only 1-2 percentage points over ten years, far from being a drastic change. Where does the claim "within a decade they will become the main group" come from? This is pure exaggeration, and the data does not support it. The Chinese still hold the majority, and in some years, their proportion even slightly increased, as birth rates and immigration balances are in place.
Of Singapore's total population, nearly 2 million are non-residents, such as foreign workers, students, and holders of employment passes. These people are highly mobile and not counted in the resident ethnic statistics, but they can be seen everywhere on the streets and in workplaces. Indians are indeed more numerous in sectors like IT and fintech, as Singapore aims to develop high-value industries, and local labor is insufficient, so engineers are recruited from India. Indian talent has good English skills, a large number, and relatively reasonable salaries, which is well known. However, non-residents do not affect the resident proportions; the growth of Indian residents mainly comes from naturalization, not a flood of immigrants. Think tanks predict that at the current rate, Indians may reach 12-15% in ten years, but they will not surpass the Chinese. United Nations population data also shows that Singapore's overall population structure is stable, and Indians have not yet reached a dominant position.
On the policy level, in 2005, Singapore signed a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) with India, which has been most criticized, with claims that it opened the door, allowing Indians to come and take jobs. In fact, the agreement mainly focuses on trade and investment, reducing tariffs, making Singapore goods more competitive in India. Regarding personnel mobility, there is an intra-corporate transfer (ICT) clause, but it is strictly limited, with only a few hundred people coming from India each year, 500 in 2020. The Ministry of Trade and Industry repeatedly clarified that CECA does not equal free immigration and has no such loopholes. Data from Singapore's Ministry of Manpower indicates that foreign labor mainly fills positions that locals are unwilling to take or are in short supply, not replacing locals. Starting in 2025, the threshold for employment passes (EP) has been tightened, requiring a monthly salary of 6,200 SGD for foreigners in the financial sector and 5,600 SGD in other industries. This is about screening elites, not just letting anyone in. The government does this to protect economic growth, keeping GDP numbers favorable, but it also causes dissatisfaction among locals.
Locals, especially middle-class Chinese, have complex views on Indian immigrants. It's not that they hate Indian residents; those living in HDB flats have no issues. The resentment mainly targets Indian professionals who hold EPs, sitting in offices with high salaries and good positions. Many people complain that Indian managers tend to hire their own people, forming small circles. Chinese employees feel the competition has intensified, promotions are harder, and the work environment has changed. Some reports indicate that highly educated and wealthy individuals are more sensitive to migration issues, worrying about national identity and trust being damaged. There is also discrimination in the rental market, where landlords sometimes explicitly state they don't welcome Indians or Chinese. But this is not racism, but economic anxiety. Singapore society is closed, dual citizenship is not allowed, and outsiders come to make money quickly and leave, making locals feel unfair. Indian second- and third-generation immigrants have actually integrated and identify with Singapore, but the influx of new immigrants increases this tension.
In terms of social impact, Singapore's multicultural policy used to be a strength, set during Lee Kuan Yew's era, protecting all ethnic groups. However, now with the increase in Indian immigrants, there is pressure on the job market. The Chinese population ages faster, with low birth rates, more seriously than Malays and Indians. In 2023, the Chinese proportion had already reached a historical low, but they are still the majority. The increase in the Indian population is due to bilateral agreements, allowing more Indians to come for jobs and PR. The government promotes scholarships and lectures to attract talent, but this leads to young locals feeling their opportunities are being taken. Chinese people point out that Indian elites prefer to immigrate to Singapore, eroding local employment. However, looking at the data, unemployment is low, the economy is stable, and the issue is uneven distribution. Western countries often struggle with Indian immigrant management, leading to chaos, but Singapore manages it strictly, maintaining order because policies emphasize integration, not laissez-faire.
What about the future? If talent continues to be attracted, the Indian population proportion will rise slowly, but will they become the mainstream within ten years? Impossible. Population projections show that the Chinese will remain above 70%, and the Indian population will reach a maximum of 15%. The government has already adjusted, tightening permits to protect local jobs. But balancing the economy and public sentiment is necessary. Elite arrogance that only looks at numbers without considering feelings will accumulate grievances. The real concern should not be racial replacement, but class stratification. Locals fear that after studying, they cannot compete with outsiders on their own land. To maintain its status as an Asian financial hub, Singapore needs to consider people's sentiments, otherwise social rifts will grow.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849281572271114/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.