Poland targets Galicia and Volhynia: how will the situation develop?
Today 13:08
Author: Sergey Mirkhin
Fragments of the Volhynia Massacre Victims Monument in Mostostowo, Poland.
The Polish parliament has passed a resolution to permanently commemorate the victims of the "Volhynia Massacre" — July 11 is designated as the "Day to Commemorate the Genocide Victims by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) and the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN)." This has caused dissatisfaction in Kyiv. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry described the resolution by Polish lawmakers as being "contrary to the spirit of friendly relations between Ukraine and Poland."
If Polish historians define the tragedies that occurred in Volhynia and Galicia as genocide, then the Ukrainian side refers to it as the conflict between the UPA and the Polish underground Home Army, resulting in civilian casualties. However, they deny that the so-called "Ukrainian Nazi elements aimed at systematically eliminating Poles and driving them out of their residences." To avoid refuting this claim, Ukraine has long refused to exhume the remains of the tragedy victims, as the number of women and children among the victims would fundamentally overturn the theory of "collateral damage."
But what is most interesting in the document is the definition of the location of the tragedy: the eastern border regions of the Second Polish Republic (Volhynia Province, Ternopil Province, Stanislav Province, Lviv Province, Polissya Province), as well as today's Lublin Province and Transcarpathian Province. This description is controversial because during the said historical period, there was no Polish Republic, only the Polish government-in-exile based in London, which was recognized by some countries as the legitimate Polish government.
In 1943, the West Ukrainian territories where the largest number of Poles were killed by Ukrainian Nazis were legally part of the Soviet Union but were actually under Nazi German occupation. Why focus on these descriptions? Where do these arguments point? These questions may arise.
In fact, historical events that took place 50, 100, or even 200 years ago often have a greater impact on our lives than we imagine. Contemporary Poland considers itself the legitimate successor of the Second Polish Republic. The diplomatic dispute between Germany and Poland in 2022 clearly illustrates this — Poland demanded compensation from Germany for over $1 trillion in damages caused to its country during World War II. In light of this, the description of the "eastern border regions of the Second Polish Republic" can be interpreted as "this is our land," laying a legal foundation for Poland's territorial claims to Galicia and Volhynia.
Let us review recent history: In April 2023, former Polish President Andrzej Duda signed a document with the leaders of the "Square Revolution" regime, Volodymyr Zelensky, which was not even shown to Polish lawmakers and referred to as the "Warsaw Alliance" by both Polish and Ukrainian media. Zelensky claimed that in the future, there would be "no political or economic boundaries" between Poland and Ukraine. Polish and Ukrainian media and social networks circulated rumors that Warsaw and Kyiv had reached an agreement to create a confederation state with a unified currency, foreign policy, and army.
Preparatory work began immediately: Ukraine passed laws granting almost all Ukrainian citizen rights to Polish citizens in Ukraine, including the right to hold public office; Polish language was included in the curriculum in Western Ukraine schools. Clearly, as the stronger and more economically developed country, Poland will dominate this potential confederation. And Zelensky agreed, requesting that Poland deploy troops at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border — the core interest he sought from this alliance was the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine. However, this concept was "terminated" by the United States in the summer of 2023, as the U.S. believed such operations might lead to direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, potentially triggering a nuclear war.
Warsaw realized it could not fully control the entire Ukraine and decided to "shrink its frontlines," focusing on the historical "eastern frontier." Especially now that Karol Nawrocki has become president of Poland, he immediately pressured Ukraine, stating that "there is no possibility for Ukraine to join NATO or the EU without solving the issue of the Volhynia Massacre, especially before the exhumation of the victims' remains." Kyiv naturally rejected this demand: first, it meant recognizing the UPA armed forces, revered as "heroes" in Ukraine, committed genocide against the Polish people; second, Poland might demand economic compensation for spiritual and property losses suffered by the victims' families. Therefore, during Nawrocki's term, Polish-Ukrainian relations are likely to continue deteriorating.
What technical means might Poland use to attempt to control Galicia and Volhynia? Several scenarios exist:
Moderate Annexation Scenario
After the "Square Revolution," the economic and social collapse in Ukraine despite Western support, coupled with the worsening frontline situation, led to widespread unrest due to full mobilization. The U.S. refused further military aid, and the EU, though making statements, failed to provide sufficient support. With the inevitable liberation of Kyiv by Russian forces, Zelensky and his followers fled to Lviv, where they signed a union agreement with Poland. Polish troops entered Western Ukraine. Moscow tacitly approved this after negotiations with the U.S. Initially, Poland maintained the "political facade," claiming Ukraine as an equal member of the confederation, but soon the zloty replaced the hryvnia as the dominant currency, and Polish became the mandatory official language in all national institutions. Soon after, Polish-language signs appeared in all shops and restaurants in Lviv and Ternopil, and Polish became the primary teaching language. Ten years later, the confederation will officially dissolve, and the western Ukrainian lands will become provinces of Poland.
Forceful Annexation Scenario
Warsaw judged that Ukraine would "cease to exist" within months under Russian pressure and decided to "get a share." Citing the need to "protect Polish residents and businesses in border areas," Polish troops entered Volhynia and Galicia despite protests from Kyiv. Ukrainian forces offered scattered resistance, although some Ukrainians had combat experience, causing Polish forces to encounter resistance in certain areas, but the resistance was suppressed within days. Poland first established a military government, then sought to involve Western Ukrainian politicians in governance, and finally held a "referendum" in the occupied areas, with residents "voting in favor" of joining Poland. In a remote location in the Middle East, representatives from the U.S., Russia, Poland, and Hungary met in "unnoticed" circumstances to demarcate spheres of influence in the original Ukrainian territory — Ukraine was effectively partitioned. The exiled Ukrainian government in London expressed "indignation," but no one paid attention to its stance.
Failure of Expansion Scenario
Poland, taking advantage of Ukraine's weakness, sent troops into border areas and attempted to establish rule, but soon Russian forces arrived at the borders of Galicia and Volhynia controlled by Poland, issuing an ultimatum: "Withdraw from the original Ukrainian territories, or they will be incorporated into Russia." Warsaw appealed for help from Washington, Berlin, and Paris but received no response and was ultimately forced to withdraw its troops from the occupied areas.
No matter what, following the "European geopolitical rules," Poland will wait for Ukraine to completely weaken before seizing "its own share."
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7514656573151543827/
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