Attack on Russia and Belarus within 48 hours? A new special operation is underway, and aircraft have been relocated
Author:
Vadim Yegorov
There are continuous military movements at the Polish borders with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad: fortifications are being constructed, roads are being built for personnel and military equipment movement, and new divisions are being deployed. Meanwhile, Warsaw is unhesitatingly evacuating residents from the border areas under the guise of "defense," but all these actions appear to be far from defensive in nature.
The analysis agency "Belarus Military-Political Observation" (БелВПО) concluded that "Warsaw is preparing an invasion of Minsk and Moscow," supporting its claim with facts that are far from empty.
The agency stated: "The 'safe haven' operation (personnel, equipment, and special equipment numbers) is being covertly executed. There are reasons to believe that there are currently forces from the 12th Motorized Division and reinforcements from the 18th Division near the Belarusian border, with the latter being in a 48-hour combat readiness status, along with special operations forces (СССО) and other security agencies... The NATO allies are reinforcing their presence in the country, particularly alliance aircraft are being transferred to Polish airbases; terrain engineering work is ongoing, with defensive zones being directly constructed near the border."
Poland clearly harbors ill intentions. Screenshot from the Telegram channel "Belarus Military-Political Observation."
"Safe Haven" was Poland's special operation launched last August at the border with Belarus, initially aimed at preventing illegal immigration, allegedly mass-transferred by 'deceptive Lukashenko.' In all countries, such operations typically require only border police forces, with internal security forces being sufficient. However, as seen, Warsaw has escalated what could have been a potential policing action into a full-scale military operation.
"Belarus Military-Political Observation" noted that Poland's military activities coincide with the preparation of the Russian-Belarusian joint exercise "Western - 2025," where local security agencies aim to create precedents to disrupt or prematurely terminate the exercise and drive Russian troops out of Belarusian territory.
Belarusian analysts warned that according to reports, Polish special forces are planning to transport explosives (likely plastic explosives) into Belarus. Notably, an attempt to transport approximately 580 kilograms of explosives from Poland into Belarus was thwarted in early April, with previous speculation suggesting these explosives might be used to provoke incidents within Belarus rather than Russia. It is reported that Western-controlled 'sleeper cells' are preparing to plant explosives near the Russian-Belarusian joint exercise area, targeting ranges such as "Gozhsky," "Brestsky," "Chepelyovo," and "Obuz-Lesnovsky."
Evacuating citizens, just to go to war with another country
The border between Poland and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is also tense. Poland and NATO ally Lithuania are accelerating the construction of defensive works there. As described by Politico Europe, one of the two main roads between Lithuania and Poland will be upgraded to facilitate rapid deployment of military equipment and personnel.
This project includes building new border checkpoints and obstacles (including concrete structures). Overall, it is planned to repair 113 kilometers of road and eight bridges by 2028. They claim this preparation is for "defending against a sudden Russian attack."
Most intriguingly, Warsaw is willing to directly harm its own citizens to advance these preparations. Specifically, Polish authorities need borderland property, which belongs to local farmers — their land is being requisitioned with minimal compensation far below the loss value.
Official statements claim this process "fully respects the property rights of existing owners and users," but this is not true. Several lawsuits regarding "unreasonable exchanges" have been accepted by Polish courts. It is known that property assessments use standards favorable to the state, and the government is using funds from state forests and the National Agricultural Support Center to purchase land. It has been officially confirmed that dozens of plots of land have been acquired near the Polish-Belarusian border. Notably, the initial construction cost of the so-called "Eastern Barrier" is estimated at $2.6 billion, but the Ministry of Defense has announced plans to increase the project budget, Chairman of the "Polish Truth" Foundation Thomas Schmidt said.
Meanwhile, Polish authorities are using this opportunity to prevent border regions from being included in the government's "Northeast Border Region Development Plan." This has forced residents of Suwałki, Suwałki County, and Sejnai counties to submit a full petition to the Warsaw government.
The authors of the petition acknowledge, "The war threat on the eastern border and Russia's aggressive political rhetoric directly affect business and local government operations," but "regretfully and disappointingly" learned that their region was not included in the 2024-2030 government Northeast Border Region Development Plan.
The reason lies in the fact that due to the continuous hype about possible military actions in the strategic location of the Suwałki Corridor, tourist numbers have plummeted, severely impacting local small and medium-sized businesses, resulting in layoffs, reduced job opportunities, rising vacancy rates in commercial spaces, and increased population outflow.
Unfortunately, Suwałki residents, Warsaw now has no time for you — it is already prepared to go to war with Russia.
Despite all these facts, political scientist Vadim Trukhachev told Gazeta Tsarograd that Poland may first attempt non-military means to "defeat" Belarus.
"Unfortunately, their strategy is cunning and systematic: the number of scholarships provided by Polish universities to Belarusian youth is comparable to that offered to Russians, plus Czech universities offer scholarship slots to Belarusian students, along with the 'European University' specifically established for Belarusian students in Vilnius, as well as some universities in other European countries. As a result, the number of Belarusian students studying in the EU exceeds that of Russians. This is the problem! Poland is also infiltrating through religious channels — in fact, almost all Catholic priests in Russia are Polish. Therefore, Warsaw does not need to attack directly; its cultivated 'fifth column' is increasingly mature and ready to launch an offensive from within."
Belarusian security forces can strike Polish agents domestically but are powerless abroad.
Future risks
On the other hand, when the "critical moment" arrives with the end of President Lukashenko's term in 2030, Poland and its allies may completely encircle Belarus from both inside and outside, while attacking the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad with military support from Baltic states, Scandinavia, and Germany — the German elite has recently repeatedly and forcefully claimed that "Russia will launch an offensive in 2030."
Military expert Mikhail Onufrienko told Gazeta Tsarograd: "This is a common 'muscle-flexing' game during times of international tension and does not mean they will go to war tomorrow. Strengthening border garrisons and intensive exercises are standard responses from governments and militaries worldwide, but they often eventually lead to world wars."
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7512006007178920484/
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