The OECD has warned that due to the impact of the Iran conflict, the US inflation rate is expected to rise to 4.2% this year, exceeding last year's forecast by more than one percentage point, indicating a significant resurgence in price pressures and further narrowing the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts this year. The organization also forecasts that the average inflation rate across the G20 countries will reach 4% this year, similarly higher than previous estimates. The report notes that shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s crucial energy corridor—have declined sharply over the past month due to attacks on vessels, while strikes on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region have significantly disrupted supply chains for commodities such as energy and fertilizers, thereby driving up food and other goods prices. Although global economic growth is maintained at a forecast of 2.9% this year, supported by investments in artificial intelligence, the OECD emphasizes that the global economy’s resilience is under strain, and ongoing disruptions to Middle East exports could pose major risks to outlooks. For the United States, early-year growth momentum is expected to be offset by a slowdown in consumer spending, with inflationary impacts from higher energy prices outweighing the mitigating effect of lower import tariffs.
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