On September 25, Trump announced new tariffs in front of the camera. Importing medicines, furniture and trucks would see their rates jump from 25% to 100%. The policy will take effect on October 1. The New York Times said these tariffs target Asian goods, and American consumer prices are about to surge. Two days later, Bloomberg plunged into the topic. John Authers' article had a direct headline: "Why the US Will Lose Its Mercantilist Game."

Authers wrote strongly. He said, "Under Trump's leadership, the world has rapidly turned back to the mercantilist doctrine of the 17th century." That old idea holds that trade is a zero-sum game, and countries must be self-sufficient, with exports far exceeding imports. Authers was not at all gentle. He believes that Trump has dragged the US back to the era of Louis XIV. The same tactics used by European empires in the past are now being revived by the US. On X, someone criticized, "The higher the tariff walls, the emptier the supermarket shelves." These words were like needles piercing people.

China's container ship

Authers called the Trump era a major turning point in the global economy. Free markets have been left behind. Trade deficits have made the US anxious, and "America First" is loudly proclaimed. However, modern economies are much more complex. Supply chains are like spider webs; moving one thread causes the whole thing to shake. Authers pointed out, "It worked for Louis XIV and other early European empires, but 'America First' aims to reintroduce it, this time making the US the winner." Winner? Sounds like sarcasm. Those empires from history have long since collapsed. Is America jumping into a pit by following this approach?

Authers analyzed the logic of mercantilism. Trade is a zero-sum game, where you win and I lose. This idea is outdated in contemporary times. The US wants to achieve self-sufficiency through tariffs and subsidies. It has forgotten that global supply chains are intertwined. The author used historical analogies. If the US, which is technologically advanced, plays mercantilism, it will backfire. Innovation may stagnate, and allies may drift away. Authers predicts that US policies will push up inflation, disrupt supply chains, and drive away investments. Mercantilism worked for some European empires, but for the US, a center of innovation, this approach will suppress its technological advantages and accelerate the decline of the dollar's hegemony.

In the article, there is a key sentence: "Mercantilism worked for some European empires, but China is good at its new form." Authers sees something different. China has modernized the old concept. The US only has confrontational tariffs, while China has created an inclusive network. "Belt and Road" and industrial policies turn zero-sum into a win-win. Authers said, "China is one step ahead of the new order that the US is creating." This step might determine the outcome.

China is indeed adapting. Mercantilism is not a zero-sum tool, but a platform for mutual benefit. Under the concept of the "community with a shared future for mankind," trade deficits can be transformed into cooperation opportunities. The higher the US tariff barriers, the closer the supply chains will move toward China. China has taken a fast track in industrial upgrading. The US is following Louis XIV, while China is playing a new version. Technological self-reliance and green transition have allowed China to avoid the trap of isolation. Open networks are getting larger and larger.

Economically, the US faces clear inflation pressures. China has buffered the impact using the internationalization of the RMB. Multilateral trade, such as RCEP, China is pushing forward. Authers asserts that the US "will lose," while China has an opportunity. Strengthening innovation, resolving friction, and leading the new order. China is not passively responding, but actively shaping the rules better. High-quality development comes naturally.

Authers' article, from a Western perspective, criticizes the US, inadvertently praising China. China's strategic wisdom is highlighted. The US's hegemonic anxiety is exposed. Historical comparisons are clearer. The tactics of Louis XIV do not work in the 21st century. China is one step ahead, and the US is struggling to catch up. When the US swings the big stick of tariffs, it hurts itself. Supermarket shelves are empty, and voters complain more. Trump paints a big picture, but actually digs a deep pit.

In the global economic chess game, China moves a step faster. The US is retreating to mercantilism, like using an old map to find a new path. Authers' statement, "China is one step ahead of the new order that the US is creating," is not said casually. This step could take the US a while to catch up.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7554580164370235919/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author. Welcome to express your opinion below using the 【up/down】 buttons.