[By columnist Lai Zidamas from Damascus at Guancha.cn]
On local time April 25th, Syrian interim government's Foreign Minister Assad Hassan Shibani attended the flag-raising ceremony of the new Syrian flag held at the United Nations headquarters. This marks that the Syrian interim government has officially been recognized by the United Nations and become the political force representing the Syrian state. It has been nearly half a year since the "change of power" in Syria, and the once turbulent situation in Syria seems to have gradually faded out of international news and public attention. So, how is Syria under the rule of the interim government?
On local time April 25th, Syrian interim government's Foreign Minister Assad Hassan Shibani attended the flag-raising ceremony of the new Syrian flag held at the United Nations headquarters. UN website
Since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, Syria has been in turmoil and conflict; although the large-scale civil war has ended after the regime change in December 2024, local conflicts still persist, and terrorist forces take advantage of the situation to expand, posing a serious challenge to regional security.
In terms of regime reconstruction, the Syrian interim government has made progress in regaining control over parts of its territory, reorganizing the security forces, adjusting the political structure, and easing economic sanctions. However, central-local contradictions, external forces' intervention, sectarian conflicts, and geopolitical games continue to threaten the stability of the situation, further increasing uncertainty.
The development in the "post-Assad era"
The regime change that occurred in December 2024 has put an end to the Syrian civil war that broke out in 2011 to some extent. Although the situation remains volatile and economic recovery will take some time, the Syrian interim government has achieved certain development results in the fields of economy, politics, and military through reconstruction.
1. Reconstruction of security forces
Currently, the Syrian interim government is rebuilding its defense and security forces based on the security forces of the "Syrian Salvation Government" controlled by the "Sham Liberation Front". Preliminary reconstruction of the defense, intelligence, and public security systems has been carried out.
Firstly, the reconstruction of intelligence agencies. On December 26, 2024, the interim government announced the establishment of the General Intelligence Service (GIS), which originated from the National Security Bureau (GSS) under the State Security Department of the "Syrian Salvation Government" (SSG) and improved its functions by emulating the General Intelligence Directorate (GID) of the Baath Party.
The current director of the General Intelligence Bureau is Anas Hassan Khatib (أنس حسن خطاب). In 2012, Anas Khatib joined the "Jabhat al-Nusra" (the predecessor of the "Sham Liberation Front") and served as administrative chief, deputy leader of the leader, and director of the Security Bureau. Even though Anas Khatib is still on the list of terror-related sanctions imposed by the United Nations, the United States, and Turkey, he has close relations with the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) and serves as the overall liaison for MIT within the "Sham Liberation Front" organization in Syria.
Anas Hassan Khatib
Due to the regime change, the working guidelines of the new intelligence system in Syria have been adjusted. The main strategy of the organization is to strike against "Islamic State" terrorist forces and remnants of the Baathist regime, and it has achieved certain results. On January 11, the anti-terrorism department of the General Intelligence Bureau and the Damascus Public Security Bureau arrested "Islamic State" terrorists who attempted to attack the Sayyid Zeinab Shrine and seized a large amount of weapons; on February 4, they arrested a wanted criminal and seized a large amount of weapons together with the Public Security Bureau of Tartus Province; on March 7, they arrested former Defense Intelligence Bureau Director Lieutenant General Ahmed Hussein Hawija in Latakia Province.
Secondly, the transformation of the public security system. Currently, the Syrian interim government is building nationwide public security forces based on the State Security Department (GSS) of the "Syrian Salvation Government". The GSS was a comprehensive law enforcement agency under the "Syrian Salvation Government". On March 20, 2024, due to frequent demonstrations in Idlib, the GSS was merged into the Interior Ministry of the "Sham Liberation Front" and renamed the Public Security Department. At present, the public security departments under the jurisdiction of the interim government are involved in maintaining stability, counter-espionage, and counter-terrorism across the country, making it the largest law enforcement department in Syria.
To address the shortage of public security forces, the Syrian Interior Ministry has taken the following measures to enhance social security control capabilities: 1) promoting recruitment plans to recruit police forces in Hama, Homs, Aleppo, etc.; 2) forming mobile unit A1 (A1 Unity) in Aleppo to maintain social order using drone technology; 3) forming mobile forces in regional centers of multiple provinces and establishing coordination mechanisms with rural security committees to ensure quick handling of security incidents; 4) participating in the formation of the 400th Division recently executing stabilization operations in the Syrian coastal region and using the 400th Division as its stabilization mobile force.
Thirdly, the reconstruction of defense forces. The regime change in December last year marked the dissolution of the armed forces of the former Syrian regime. Subsequently, the interim government formed multiple armed forces based on subordinate troops of the "Sham Liberation Front", achieving military control in most areas of western Syria, but still faces practical problems such as the lack of technical weaponry, expanding personnel shortages, and complex military factions.
The current reconstruction of Syrian defense forces has the following achievements:
First, the integration of core combat forces. Based on the adaptation policy implemented by the "Syrian Salvation Government" in July 2024, the former 2nd Division of the "Sham Liberation Front" has been reorganized into the 103rd Division of the Ministry of Defense, the 4th Division into the 133rd Division, and the 5th Division into the 400th Division. This has expanded the scale of the original units (originally equivalent to brigade-level units) after reorganization (reaching division-level scale). These armed forces include a large number of foreign armed organizations active in Syria, possessing strong combat capability and equipment. They are nominally under the Ministry of Defense but actually under the command of the "Sham Liberation Front". They may develop into direct armed forces similar to the Republican Guard in the future and are now responsible for the defense work in the core control area from Idlib to Homs.
Second, the reconstruction of technical departments. Due to Israeli airstrikes destroying much of Syria's technical weaponry, the new Ministry of Defense has concentrated remaining helicopters and other technical weaponry in Latakia and rebuilt air and naval military forces.
Third, the formation of local divisions. On February 7, 2025, the Ministry of Defense announced that local military units had been established in the capital Damascus, Hama, Homs, Daraa, Idlib, and Palmyra, and recruitment began to reorganize native military forces.
2. Political restructuring
Firstly, reaching a political reconciliation agreement with Kurdish armed groups. On March 11, Syrian interim government leader Joulani and Kurdish armed group leader Mazroum signed a principle document regarding army integration and maintaining territorial unity. Starting March 14, Kurdish armed groups transported 10,000 barrels of crude oil daily to the Homs refinery according to the agreement to meet energy needs in western Syria.
On March 19, under US mediation, the interim government held several rounds of negotiations with Kurdish armed groups in Hasakah. On April 1, both sides signed an important agreement where Kurdish armed groups withdrew regular armed forces from northern Aleppo Kurdish residential areas, and both sides promised to release all detained prisoners in Aleppo Province and establish a coordination committee to establish communication channels between Aleppo City and Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria.
Secondly, convening a national dialogue conference and adopting a new constitution. On January 30, Joulani officially announced his appointment as the "President of the Syrian Interim Government." On February 26, the interim government convened the "National Dialogue Conference of Syria" to promote the political reconciliation process. On March 1, the first draft of the new constitution was issued, including maintaining the transitional status for five years, dissolving the existing Constitutional Court, and Islamic Shariah as the primary source of legislation in Syria.
Thirdly, forming a new cabinet. On March 29, the first cabinet of the interim government was established. Compared with the cabinet during the previous regime, the new cabinet presents the following characteristics: First, according to the constitution, the cabinet is accountable to the president, and the position of prime minister is no longer set up;
Second, structural changes have occurred in its composition. The new cabinet of the interim government consists of 23 members, slightly streamlined compared to the previous government (29 people). On one hand, new departments such as the Emergency Management Department and the Sports Department were newly established to respond to national needs; on the other hand, comprehensive departments were formed to integrate national institutions, for example, the new Energy Department integrated multiple departments previously involved in energy issues under the previous regime, and the National Trade and Consumer Protection Department and the Economic and Foreign Trade Department were merged into the Economic and Industrial Department;
Third, the balance of cabinet members has been further enhanced. Compared with the cabinet composition of the previous regime, members of the new cabinet come from various provinces across the country, with 2 seats for the Kurdish ethnicity and 1 seat for the Druze ethnicity; additionally, party affiliations are more balanced, and the average age of members is younger.
3. Significant achievements in foreign mediation
Firstly, consolidating relations with neighboring countries. In terms of Syrian-Turkish relations, high-ranking officials of the Turkish government, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, visited Damascus and reached multiple economic, military, and political cooperation agreements with the interim government. Turkish troops stationed in Idlib and Aleppo provinces began withdrawing from Syria and expanded their energy supply scale to Syria.
In terms of Syrian-Iraqi relations and Syrian-Lebanese relations, on one hand, there are differences between Syria and Iraq on labor issues, repatriation of suspected individuals, and sectarianism conflicts. Therefore, on December 16, 2024, Iraqi Intelligence Director Hamid Al-Shatari visited Syria. On March 14 this year, Syrian Interim Foreign Minister Shibani arrived in Baghdad for an official visit to strengthen bilateral exchanges.
On the other hand, in response to recent border conflicts, on March 18, Lebanon and the Syrian Defense Ministry announced a ceasefire in the Syrian-Lebanese border; on the 28th, under Saudi mediation, the defense ministers of Syria and Lebanon signed a border demarcation cooperation agreement in Riyadh, agreeing to establish a joint committee to consult and determine land and sea borders and solve the issue of Syrian refugee return.
Syrian power distribution map on April 30, 2025. Liveuamap
Secondly, strengthening regional cooperation. Currently, the Syrian interim government is actively conducting diplomatic activities through major powers inside and outside the region, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, EU, and the United States, to reconstruct diplomatic relations, seek international support for domestic reconstruction in Syria, and attempt to lift economic sanctions against Syria.
In the diplomatic activities with the United States, the Syrian interim government has repeatedly stated its willingness to engage in diplomatic consultations with the U.S. to lift economic sanctions. On January 6, the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Treasury issued a sanction exemption order aimed at providing humanitarian aid to Syria within six months. On March 22, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated that the U.S. is examining the political activities of the Syrian interim government and has no intention of lifting sanctions but will loosen regulations in the financial sector.
In the diplomatic activities with the EU, on January 3, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot visited Damascus and met with interim government leader Joulani. On March 20, Baerbock visited Syria again and announced the reopening of the German Embassy in Damascus.
Additionally, on January 17, EU Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness, and Crisis Management Haji Rasheb visited Syria and announced that the EU would provide a total of 235 million euros in new humanitarian assistance to Syria. On February 24, the EU temporarily lifted sanctions on Syria's oil and transportation sectors, removed four Syrian banks and Syrian Airlines from the sanctions list, allowed injecting capital into the Central Bank of Syria, and provided financial and humanitarian assistance. On March 17, Syrian Foreign Minister Assad Shibani attended the Ninth Brussels Conference, where EU Mediterranean Affairs Commissioner Dubravka Šuica stated that the EU is committed to providing 5.8 billion euros in economic assistance to Syria.
4. Economic activities have improved somewhat
Firstly, the end of the war. The end of the Syrian civil war indicates that wartime economies such as "checkpoint economy" and "smuggling economy" have entered history. The cost of goods transportation in Syria has decreased by 60% to 70%, effectively promoting economic recovery. For example, after the war ended, the price of construction materials in Aleppo dropped significantly. The price of a ton of cement fell from 2 million Syrian pounds in 2024 to about 1.2 million Syrian pounds, a decrease of 40%.
Secondly, the relaxation of sanctions. With the EU and the U.S. relaxing economic sanctions against Syria, import and export activities in Syria have resumed, and multiple ships carrying used cars, oil, and natural gas have arrived at the Lattakia port; on February 23, the "No. 3" cement factory in Hama (with a daily capacity of 3,300 tons) resumed production. On April 6, a ship carrying 11,000 sheep was exported from Tartous Port, indicating that the trade circulation channels in Syria are gradually recovering.
Thirdly, financial stability. After the interim government was established, Western countries lifted some sanctions on Syrian financial, energy, and transportation institutions. On January 17, the EU formulated relevant roadmaps for lifting sanctions on Syria. On March 6, the UK announced the lifting of sanctions on 24 entities including the Central Bank of Syria. Additionally, the improvement of foreign exchange channels and the return of overseas funds have further strengthened financial liquidity, and the Syrian pound has appreciated significantly and stabilized to 10,500-12,500:1 against the dollar.
Unstable factors far from disappearing
Although the Syrian interim government has made certain progress in military reconstruction, political restructuring, and economic recovery in three fields, given that a large-scale civil war has just ended, it still faces many risks and challenges.
On one hand, the sectarianism exacerbated by the long-term civil war has intensified contradictions and estrangement among factions, and frequent incidents of racial persecution against minority ethnic groups have occurred. The reality of some ethnic groups seceding exists. On the other hand, Syria urgently needs a large amount of funds for economic reconstruction. Under the current limited external assistance, how to stabilize the economic foundation and ensure social income levels is a very severe problem. Moreover, terrorist activities present new forms, bringing many adverse effects to global anti-terrorism efforts.
1. The unresolved issue of central-local contradictions
Currently, the Syrian interim government still maintains a tense relationship with the Suwayda Province dominated by the Druze, northeastern Syria (east of the Euphrates River) dominated by the Kurds, and the coastal regions dominated by the Alawites. On one hand, indiscriminate attacks by radical Sunni elements against Alawite and Druze minorities have forced these minority groups to adopt "military self-control and political autonomy" to preserve themselves. The current situation of high regional autonomy cannot be reversed in the short term, and central-local contradictions still cannot be fundamentally resolved.
Violence and massacres in Syria have not completely stopped
Additionally, due to the complexity of the factions under the Syrian interim government, some military organizations act independently and refuse to accept instructions from the Ministry of Defense. For example, Ahmed Ouda, a senior leader of the opposition armed forces in Daraa Province, still controls the area near the Jordan-Syria border and refuses to accept the integration of the Ministry of Defense.
2. The "Idlib model" is unsustainable
Some scholars point out that the essence of the Syrian regime change is the institutional advantage of the "Idlib economic model" competing with the "Damascus economic model". The "Idlib model" in Syria has three core characteristics: firstly, strong external blood transfusion; secondly, market economy under neoliberalism; thirdly, low customs duties leading to low logistics costs.
Notably, strong external blood transfusions from Turkey and Western countries, as well as US economic sanctions against the previous Syrian regime, are important reasons for the regime change.
Currently, Syria's economic recovery still faces many difficulties. Firstly, Syria has yet to fully escape the impact of the Caesar Act. The national economy still faces widespread sanctions, and substantial economic assistance from domestic and foreign countries has not yet materialized. The "Idlib model" is difficult to promote throughout Syria. According to UN-provided data, more than half of Syrians are displaced, 90% of the population lives below the poverty line, and it is expected that 16.7 million people will rely on humanitarian aid in 2024, with reconstruction requiring $200 billion.
Secondly, the main industries have suffered severe damage. The two main pillars of the current interim government—oil and gas, and agriculture—are severely affected by the war and difficult to recover to pre-war levels. Take agriculture as an example. Syria currently faces problems such as insufficient grain production, low land utilization rates, and high planting costs, and still needs to import grain to meet demand.
Meanwhile, Syria's oil resources are constantly depleting, and its dependence on natural gas is further increasing. However, Syria's daily natural gas production has dropped from 30 million cubic meters in 2010 to 9.1 million cubic meters at the beginning of 2025. War and external sanctions hinder the maintenance and upgrading of energy facilities, causing Syria to still need to transport crude oil through Qatar and Turkey to meet daily needs, with power supply capabilities at their lowest level in areas other than parts of Idlib and Aleppo (powered by the Turkish grid), seriously hindering economic recovery and industrial reconstruction.
3. Sectarian problems are escalating
Due to long-term civil war, religious radicalization, and external渲染, current ethnic and religious contradictions in Syria are intensifying. Frequent occurrences of events such as the settlement of accounts with the "Shabiha" militia of the Assad regime, looting of minority groups (such as Christians), destruction of Alawite/Shiite religious sites, and extrajudicial executions of former government soldiers have kept many resistance armed groups active, and social security still cannot be guaranteed.
In late December 2024, Alawite shrines and relics in Hama Province, western Homs Province, Aleppo Province, and coastal provinces, as well as Christian facilities across the country, were severely damaged. In early March this year, there were bloody incidents involving mass civilian killings, with the "Coastal Shield Brigade," a former regime resistance organization, launching large-scale attacks on Syrian interim government security personnel. Subsequent conflicts led to mass civilian deaths, and frequent large-scale massacres of villages in the west coast occurred. According to reports by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), over 1,500 civilians were killed in the west coast region.
4. Power struggles behind geopolitical conflicts
Currently, Syria is in the midst of geopolitical conflicts in the Eastern Mediterranean region, with Turkey and Israel competing for interests in the Sham region where Syria is located.
Israeli bombing of Syria. Video screenshot
From Turkey's perspective, combating terrorism, promoting refugee return, and enhancing regional influence are the three main policy starting points for Turkey's approach to Syria. In response, after the establishment of the Syrian interim government, Turkey actively engaged in bilateral activities with it. On January 20, Turkey reopened its consulate in Aleppo. On February 4, Joulani visited Turkey, and both sides initially agreed on a defense cooperation protocol. Turkey will deploy fighter jets and air defense systems at the T-4 Air Base in central Syria and provide military equipment and training to the Syrian interim government. On March 5, Turkey's newly appointed military attaché began working at the Damascus embassy.
However, from Israel's perspective, the rise of a pro-Turkish Syrian interim government is detrimental to maintaining Israel's national security. Therefore, Israel actively carries out military actions against Syria. On one hand, it designated the southern three provinces of Syria as safe zones, sent troops to occupy Syrian territory, and sought to win over pro-Israeli Druze groups in Suwayda Province. On the other hand, Israel frequently launches airstrikes against Syrian military targets, destroying Syrian technical weaponry and strongly opposing Turkey's military presence in Syria. Due to the regime change and significant losses in technical weaponry, Syria's military capabilities have been greatly weakened, making it unable to counter Israel's airstrikes.
Since Turkey and Israel have strengthened their infiltration and influence in Syria, varying degrees of Syrian northern and southern border regions are under the control or deep influence of other countries, and Syria's national sovereignty continues to be violated in geopolitical conflicts. The situation of national fragmentation still persists.
5. The situation of terrorist activities is complex and changeable
Firstly, global terrorist organizations represented by "Islamic State" and "Al-Qaeda", despite suffering severe blows in the past, have seen some recovery in their operational capabilities in recent years, with their activity range further expanding, and the spillover effect becoming prominent. With the regime change in Syria, a large number of "Islamic State" members previously imprisoned were released, some returning to neighboring countries to launch terrorist attacks, posing a serious threat to the security situation in related countries.
Additionally, the weakening control of Kurdish armed groups over the eastern bank of the Euphrates River has resulted in insufficient progress in the repatriation process of the "Hol" refugee camp centered around "Islamic State" families. Along with the US strategic retreat from Syria, this has further enhanced the activity capabilities of "Islamic State" in the eastern regions of Syria. The US Central Command warned in July 2024 that the "Islamic State" organization is attempting to reorganize and occupy vast uninhabited areas. If not restricted and struck, its influence in populated areas will continue to expand, potentially establishing a new extremist regime.
Secondly, some terrorist organizations affiliated with the "Sham Liberation Front" have achieved "whitewashing" of their identities with the regime change and are developing professionally and structurally. On January 1, 2025, the Ministry of Defense of the Syrian interim government announced the first batch of 48 promotion lists, including six foreign terrorists who were granted ranks.
The leader of the Albanian Jihadist organization Xhemati, Abdul Jashari, was promoted to colonel. The leader of the East Turkestan Organization, Zahi (Syrian alias: Abdulaziz Dawood Khudaberdi), was promoted to major general. The second-in-command of the organization, Maulana Tarsoun Abdussamad (alias), and Abdulsalam Yasin Ahmad (alias) were promoted to colonels. The leader of the Uzbek and Kyrgyz terrorist organization "Monotheism and Jihad Camp," Saifuddin Mamur (Syrian alias: Saifuddin Mamur Muhammad Taghli), was promoted to colonel. Saifiddin Tadjiboev, a Tajikistani terrorist, was appointed as the director of the Operations Department of the Ministry of Defense and granted the rank of colonel.
Joulani in 2016
It is worth noting that the current active terrorist organizations affiliated with the "Sham Liberation Front" in Syria mainly come from the Caucasus, Russia, Southern Europe, and Central Asia. Among them, leaders of larger organizations have been granted ranks, indicating a close connection between terrorist organizations and the Syrian interim government.
In summary, the "Sham Liberation Front" continues to rely on its loose organizational structure after seizing power, directly granting numbers to subordinate armed groups instead of forming modern正规 armed forces, and shows no intention of marginalizing internal terrorist organizations that still adopt "jihadist" ideology.
Therefore, currently, various forces within the new government army, although nominally subject to the Ministry of Defense, still maintain their original independence. In fact, there has been no change in internal leadership and membership. Small terrorist organizations within the framework of the former "Great Conquest" Command (a coordination body used by the "Sham Liberation Front" before the regime change to coordinate military activities of different organizations) are even less controllable. For example, in February 2025, a special organization dedicated to killing Alawite civilians, "Saraya Ansar Sunnah," was newly established in Syria. Within over two months, this organization killed more than 100 people, but the Syrian interim government ignored its existence and tacitly allowed terrorist attacks to proceed.
Conclusion
Since December last year, Syria has undergone tremendous changes. With the support of Western countries and Turkey, the Syrian interim government has achieved nominal national sovereignty and, due to the relaxation of sanctions and support from neighboring countries, has avoided a large-scale humanitarian crisis domestically. However, Syria is far from completing unification, and internal central-local contradictions and terrorist pressure remain.
Although the United Nations has raised the flag of the Syrian interim government, whether Syria can complete national unification, eliminate the threat of terrorism, and embark on an independent and peaceful path of development still requires observation.
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